After finishing as runners-up in Group B, Ecuador take on the Copa America reigning champions next for a place in the semi-finals. Look ahead to the decisive game with our Argentina vs Ecuador prediction and preview.
Argentina vs Ecuador Stats: The Key Insights
- Argentina are favourites here, winning this game inside 90 minutes in 68.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- They have never lost to Ecuador at the Copa America, with 11 wins and five draws.
- Argentina have won their last eight matches, including friendlies, equalling the longest winning streak under Lionel Scaloni as head coach
Ecuador head coach Félix Sánchez has likened their Copa America quarter-final to a final, as they prepare to take on defending champions, Argentina, in Houston.
La Tricolor did not make the best start to the tournament with their 2-1 defeat to eventual Group B winners Venezuela.
However, an impressive 3-1 win over Jamaica, coupled with their goalless draw against Mexico, was enough to see them finish second in the group and qualify for the knockout stage.
Ecuador have never won the Copa America, but a statement victory over Argentina would surely make them the ones to watch.
Sánchez is confident his players have what it takes to cause an upset.
“We know it is an unmatched opponent, and we know how tough it’s going to be, and we’ll see how that unfolds,” Sanchez said.
“It is yet another final for us, and we will try to compete against the world’s champion and the world’s best team. I believe that our team is going to be extremely motivated with a very high morale and trying to play a good match.
“I have full confidence in our players. I know that they are going to give their best as they’ve done in the three matches. We know how tough it is, and we’re going to do whatever we can to win it.”
Argentina stayed perfect through the group stage, winning all three games without conceding a single goal, with Lautaro Martínez providing the spark – he has the lead in the Golden Boot race with his four goals.
It also looks like they will be boosted by the return of Lionel Messi, who missed their 2-0 victory over Peru due to a hamstring issue, while head coach Lionel Scaloni will be back on the touchline after serving a one-match ban.
Assistant coach Walter Samuel is still expecting a tough battle though, noting the difficulties that Ecuador’s style poses.
“They are different rivals,” Samuel said. “We faced Ecuador in the last friendly. We know them and [they] have a capable coach. The physical part is a big deal, but they have a great technical quality, too. They are playing this tournament well, and it’ll be difficult.
“We have seen many players who had not had game time [against Peru]. We have now used almost the whole squad. Now comes the next round and we need to be ready.”
Players to Watch
Argentina – Lautaro Martínez
Only two Argentina players have scored more goals in a single edition of the tournament in the 21st century than Martínez has in this one (four): Juan Roman Riquelme in 2007 and Lionel Messi in 2016, both netting five goals each.
Martínez also leads the way in Argentina’s squad for shots (nine), despite only starting one of their matches so far.
Ecuador – Kendry Paez
Kendry Paez was an integral player for Ecuador in the group stages as he made the most ball recoveries (19) and attempted the second-most shots (10, behind Salomon Rondon’s 13) among all teams in Group B.
The 17-year-old will join Chelsea next year, and is already displaying the quality that attracted the Blues in the first place.
Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction
Unsurprisingly, Opta’s model is backing the defending champions to book a place in the semi-final. Argentina have a 68.4% chance of winning this game inside 90 minutes. Ecuador cause a giant upset in 14.5% of simulations, and the game goes to extra-time in the remaining 17.1%.
According to the supercomputer’s tournament-long simulations, Argentina progress to the semi-finals 76.4% of the time. Argentina have never lost to Ecuador at the Copa America, with 11 wins and five draws. However, they have only met once in the knockout rounds, with La Albiceleste advancing in 2021 after a 3-0 win in the quarter-finals.
In fact, Ecuador have only ever beaten Argentina five times in their previous 40 meetings in all competitions but have not got the better of them since a World Cup qualifier in October 2015, winning 2-0 (drawn one, lost six since).
Argentina vs Ecuador Squads
Argentina
Emiliano Martínez, Franco Armani, Gerónimo Rulli, Cristian Romero, Germán Pezzella, Gonzalo Montiel, Lisandro Martínez, Lucas Martínez Quarta, Marcos Acuña, Nahuel Molina, Nicolás Otamendi, Nicolás Tagliafico, Alexis Mac Allister, Ángel Di María, Enzo Fernández, Exequiel Palacios, Giovani Lo Celso, Guido Rodríguez, Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Valentín Carboni, Alejandro Garnacho, Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, Lionel Messi, Nicolás González.
Head coach: Lionel Scaloni
Ecuador
Alexander Domínguez, Hernán Galíndez, Moisés Ramírez, Andrés Hurtado, Andrés Micolta, Ángelo Preciado, Félix Torres, Jackson Porozo, Joel Ordóñez, Layan Loor, Piero Hincapié, Willian Pacho, Alan Franco, Alan Minda, Ángel Mena, Carlos Gruezo, Janner Corozo, Jeremy Sarmiento, Joao Ortiz, John Yeboah, José Cifuentes, Kendry Páez, Moisés Caicedo, Enner Valencia, Jordy Caicedo, Kevin Rodríguez.
Head coach: Félix Sánchez Bas
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