We look ahead to this Euro 2024 Group F contest with our Turkey vs Georgia prediction and preview.
Turkey vs Georgia Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Turkey big favourites for this match, winning 55.6% of the pre-match simulations.
- This will be Georgia’s European Championship debut, having never previously qualified as an independent nation.
- Turkey have won just one of their seven most recent Euros matches in a run that stretches back to Euro 2008.
It’s been a long time coming, but Georgia will make their men’s European Championship debut on Tuesday as they take on Turkey at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, to begin their Group F campaign.
Georgia will be the only debut nation to feature at Euro 2024 (Serbia previously competed as Yugoslavia), with their qualification for the competition a huge achievement.
Once a major component of the national team for the Soviet Union and the home of Dinamo Tbilisi, one of only two Soviet clubs to win a major European trophy, Georgia have largely struggled on the international stage since the breakup of the USSR in 1991.
After finishing third in a group of six and thus failing to reach Euro 96, the best Georgia have done in any European Championship qualification campaign is come second from bottom – and that includes the process for Euro 2024.
But the introduction of the UEFA Nations League has had a transformational impact for countries like Georgia. Because they won Nations League Group C4, Georgia qualified for Path C of the Euro 2024 play-offs and saw off Luxembourg and Greece (the latter on penalties after a 0-0 draw) to seal a historic qualification despite finishing fourth out of five in qualifying Group A.
Backed by a hugely passionate fanbase and boasting some genuinely talented individuals like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Giorgi Chakvetadze and Georges Mikautadze, Georgia will be adamant they aren’t in Germany just to make up the numbers, and there’s precedent to newcomers making an early splash.
Since 2012, three of the eight European Championship debut nations have won their first-ever match at the tournament, with Ukraine beating Sweden in 2012, Wales defeating Slovakia four years later, and Finland shocking Denmark in the delayed Euro 2020.
Turkey have been warned, then.
While they didn’t have to go through the rigmarole of the play-offs, Turkey’s qualification campaign was hardly straightforward either. A series of unconvincing results led to coach Stefan Kuntz being dismissed and replaced by Vincenzo Montella, who quickly oversaw a huge win away to Croatia before hammering Latvia. A hard-fought draw with Wales then saw Turkey secure their ticket for Euro 2024.
Turkey haven’t impressed regularly at this tournament, though. While their Euro 2008 team earned the admiration of neutrals with their late comebacks and spirited performances en route to the semi-finals, their record since has been wretched.
They played six matches across Euro 2016 and Euro 2020, managing just a solitary victory and going out at the group stage in both tournaments. The latter was the most disappointing of the two after being dubbed by many as potential dark horses who could go deep into the competition, only to go out without a single point to their name.
There’s less expectation this time. March’s 6-1 friendly thrashing by Austria was alarming, and they followed up a recent 0-0 draw with Italy by losing to Poland 2-1 in their final warm-up match. Furthermore, the failure to bring promising goal-scoring midfielder Can Uzun to the tournament attracted criticism, though there’s still plenty of youthful promise in Montella’s squad.
Only Ukraine (25 years, 273 days) had a younger average starting XI than Turkey (26y, 83d) in qualifying, evidence of this being a squad with potential, while in Hakan Çalhanoglu they’ve a midfielder up there with the best in the tournament on his day.
In Kvaratskhelia, however, Georgia have their own Serie A superstar. Coach Willy Sagnol will undoubtedly look to the Napoli winger to lead by example; he certainly has the bravery and desire to take the game to opponents, with no player (minimum 500 minutes) bettering his 4.8 successful dribbles per 90 in qualifying.
Turkey vs Georgia Head-to-Head
Turkey have won three of their five meetings with Georgia in all competitions (D1 L1), with this their first encounter since a 3-1 friendly victory in May 2012.
Georgia’s only previous win came in a friendly in February 2007 (1-0).
Turkey vs Georgia Prediction
Somewhat unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer does regard Turkey as comfortable favourites for this one, winning 55.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Georgia came out on top in 20.4% of sims, while the draw occurred 24.0% of the time.
While Portugal are rated to have the best chance of getting out of the group (95%), Turkey (68%) are deemed to be the second-likeliest side to reach the knockouts out of those in Group F.
Georgia made it to the last 16 in 42% of the group-stage simulations. Although that is the smallest percentage of those in Group F, there are two teams in other groups – Albania (30%) and Slovenia (39%) – who are deemed less likely to progress than Sagnol’s men.
Turkey vs Georgia Squads
Turkey
Altay Bayindir, Mert Günok, Ugurcan Çakir, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Ahmetcan Kaplan, Kaan Ayhan, Merih Demiral, Mert Müldür, Samet Akaydin, Zeki Çelik, Arda Güler, Ferdi Kadioglu, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Irfan Can Kahveci, Ismail Yüksek, Okay Yokuslu, Orkun Kökçü, Salih Özcan, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Bertug Yildirim, Cenk Tosun, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Semih Kiliçsoy, Yunus Akgün, Yusuf Yazici.
Head coach: Vincenzo Montella
Georgia
Giorgi Loria, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Luka Gugeshashvili, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Giorgi Gvelesiani, Guram Kashia, Jimmy Tabidze, Lasha Dvali, Luka Lochoshvili, Otar Kakabadze, Solomon Kverkvelia, Anzor Mekvabishvili, Gabriel Sigua, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Nika Kvekveskiri, Otar Kiteishvili, Saba Lobjanidze, Sandro Altunashvili, Budu Zivzivadze, Georges Mikautadze, Giorgi Kvilitaia, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Levan Shengelia, Zuriko Davitashvili.
Head coach: Willy Sagnol
Turkey vs Georgia Predicted Lineups
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