We look ahead to this Euro 2024 last-16 tie at Cologne Stadium with our Spain vs Georgia prediction and preview.
Spain vs Georgia Stats: The Key Insights
- Spain are the overwhelming favourites, with Opta’s supercomputer handing them a 75.3% chance of victory.
- Georgia have relied heavily on Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper so far at Euro 2024.
- La Roja were the only team to progress through the group stage with a 100% winning record.
Following the conclusion of the Euro 2024 group stage, Spain remain the only team to win all their games ahead of their last-16 tie against Georgia in Cologne.
La Roja ended their group campaign with a 1-0 victory over Albania that featured a much-changed side, with Ferran Torres’ early strike enough to secure the win.
However, they will face a Georgia team brimming with self-belief after their maiden triumph at a major international tournament over Portugal last time out.
Willy Sagnol’s side have captured the hearts of football fans across the world, but know the enormity of the task ahead of them, with these teams having also played against each other during qualifying.
Luis de la Fuente’s Spain must approach with caution, as their recent record in the knockout stages of major tournaments has been far from impressive.
They were eliminated in the last 16 of the 2018 World Cup and 2022 World Cup, losing on penalties to Russia and Morocco respectively, though they did reach the semi-finals of Euro 2020, when they also lost on penalties to Italy.
With much of the spotlight on Spain’s attack, their defence has impressed and they are yet to concede a goal in Germany. The last time they managed to keep four consecutive clean sheets at a major tournament was at Euro 2012 (a run of five) – the last time they claimed silverware.
Spain’s vibrant attackers are also set to come up against the tournament’s in-form goalkeeper.
Georgia’s Giorgi Mamardashvili, who plays for Valencia at club level, has saved 16 of the last 17 shots on target he has faced at Euro 2024, and he could be in for another busy day.
Sagnol’s team faced the most shots (71), most on target (25), and had the highest xG conceded (8.1) of any nation in the group stage, with the only side to face more than 71 shots in the group stage of a Euros being Latvia in 2004 (86).
However, Georgia’s performances in Group F should have given them the confidence to be fearless against the three-time European Champions. A win will see them become the fourth team since the quarter-finals were introduced to reach that stage in their first Euros.
Georgia are under no illusions that they must upset the odds to keep their fairytale at Euro 2024 alive, but getting on the front foot early, as they did against Portugal, seems to be their best hope.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s goal after 01:32 is the earliest Portugal have ever conceded in the competition, and another Georgian will be hard-pressed to break what is now a national record at a major tournament.
They became the first European nation to qualify from the group stage in their first major tournament since Iceland at Euro 2016 and have the attacking talent to continue their journey.
Georges Mikautadze’s penalty ensured Georgia inflicted the Seleção’s first competitive defeat under Roberto Martínez.
Kvaratskhelia proved a considerable thorn in Portugal’s side during their encounter, registering the joint-most shots (three) of anyone on the pitch while leading the way for shots on target (two) and touches in the opposition box (four) for Georgia.
On the other hand, they conceded 22 shots and had just 27.6% possession, but showcased their clinical nature, outperforming their expected goals (xG) by 0.35.
Riding the crest of a new wave of emerging talent, Spain are back among the best teams in world football, with Luis Enrique’s possession obsession having gone stale.
De la Fuente made 10 changes against Albania, and their strength in depth, which has lacked in major tournaments gone by, is definitely a key quality.
Torres, for example, scored the only goal against Albania and has been directly involved in seven goals across nine appearances for Spain under De la Fuente (five goals, two assists), with no Spain player involved in more goals under him, but the Barcelona forward is unlikely to start on Sunday.
Dani Olmo provided his fourth assist at the European Championship finals on what was his seventh such appearance, with only Cesc Fàbregas providing more for Spain in the competition since records began in 1964 (five), but he too has had to settle for a back-up role in Germany.
And finally, Álex Grimaldo created five chances against Albania, the most of any Spanish defender in a single match at a major tournament on record (since 1980). Yet Marc Cucurella was preferred at left-back in the first two matches.
It is likely that a more familiar Spanish side will take to the pitch, but De la Fuente will have confidence in his bench players to make an impact, should they be needed.
Spain vs Georgia Head-to-Head
This will be Spain’s eighth meeting with Georgia, but their first at a major tournament. La Roja have won six of their seven matches against the minnows in all competitions, all of which have been since 2012.
Spain won both qualifying games by an aggregate score of 10-2 (7-1 away, 3-1 home), but the tournament version of Georgia could present a much sterner test.
Spain vs Georgia Prediction
Spain are expected to win this one, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a dominant 75.3% chance of getting the job done in Cologne.
Georgia triumphed in just 9.5% of data-led simulations, with a draw forecast slightly higher at 15.2%.
Spain get through the tie in 83.0% of sims, while Georgia upset the odds to reach the quarter-finals in the remaining 17%.
Spain vs Georgia Squads
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
Georgia
Giorgi Loria, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Luka Gugeshashvili, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Giorgi Gvelesiani, Guram Kashia, Jimmy Tabidze, Lasha Dvali, Luka Lochoshvili, Otar Kakabadze, Solomon Kverkvelia, Anzor Mekvabishvili, Gabriel Sigua, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Nika Kvekveskiri, Otar Kiteishvili, Saba Lobjanidze, Sandro Altunashvili, Budu Zivzivadze, Georges Mikautadze, Giorgi Kvilitaia, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Levan Shengelia, Zuriko Davitashvili.
Head coach: Willy Sagnol
Spain vs Georgia Predicted Lineups
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