An open Group E draw offers an inviting Euro 2024 chance for both sides in Munich. We look ahead to Monday’s clash with our Romania vs Ukraine prediction and preview.
Romania vs Ukraine Stats: The Key Insights
- Ukraine are backed by the Opta supercomputer to defeat Romania, winning 42.6% of pre-match simulations.
- Romania’s win ratio of 6% at the UEFA European Championship (one win in 16 games) is the lowest of any side to have competed in more than one tournament.
- With two goals and three assists, Andriy Yarmolenko has been involved in five of Ukraine’s eight goals in this competition.
Romania and Ukraine will both fancy their chances of escaping Group E when the underdog pair meet for their Euro 2024 opener in Munich on Monday.
These two sides have hardly enjoyed European Championship action in recent years as Ukraine prepare for their fourth straight appearance at this tournament, while Romania are set to feature for the first time since 2016.
Edward Iordănescu’s team finished bottom of their group after winning just a single point in their last outing eight years ago, with that a familiar story for Romania on the European stage.
Across their 16 games and six tournament appearances at the Euros, Romania have managed just a single win (D5 L10), beating England 3-2 in 2000 as Ioan Ganea scored the winner with an 89th-minute penalty.
Romania’s win ratio of 6% at the finals of UEFA’s flagship international tournament is the lowest of any side to have competed in more than one event. They have the lowest goals-per-game ratio of any nation to have played more than 10 games at the finals, too, with 10 goals in 16 outings, an average of 0.63 per game.
However, Iordănescu may have some Romanian hopefuls believing things are on the up for their country. His team topped their qualifying Group I, which included Switzerland, Israel and Kosovo, while remaining unbeaten throughout.
Iordănescu is the first manager to guide Romania to a major tournament since his father, Anghel Iordănescu, did so at Euro 2016. Veteran Anghel has managed more matches (15) and won more games (5) at such competitions than any other coach in the nation’s history, yet a new era beckons under his son.
Saudi Pro League midfielder Nicolae Stanciu will be a key figure for this new-look Romania side, with the 31-year-old captain offering rare experience of previously featuring at a major tournament.
Tottenham centre-back Radu Dragusin brings top-level experience to Iordănescu’s backline having played in Serie A and the Premier League last season, with Euro 2024 marking a perfect chance for the 22-year-old to leave his stamp on international football.
Dragusin will hope to contribute in attack, too, with 50% of Romania’s goals at European Championships coming via set pieces (5/10 – one corner, one free-kick and three penalties). They haven’t scored a goal in open play in any of their last seven games at the tournament, with their two goals at Euro 2016 coming via Bogdan Stancu penalties.
Though Romania’s recent record at this tournament is poor, Ukraine have also suffered defeat in eight of their previous 11 matches in the competition (W3). Their 73% loss rate is the highest of any nation to play in more than one edition.
Serhiy Rebrov’s side scraped through qualifying with a 2-1 play-off victory over Iceland thanks to Mykhailo Mudryk’s late winner, booking their ticket to Germany back in late March.
Rebrov will manage here at his first major tournament, though has big-game experience with his country already after playing four games at the 2006 FIFA World Cup and scoring in a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia.
Premier League full-back pair Oleksandr Zinchenko and Vitalii Mykolenko – of Arsenal and Everton respectively – will be two Ukrainians to keep an eye on, with Rebrov boasting a wealth of experienced operators in his European squad.
Girona’s Artem Dovbyk finished as LaLiga’s top scorer in the 2023-24 campaign, scoring 24 goals in 36 outings, while Bournemouth centre-back Illia Zabarnyi – who has played in the UEFA Champions League with Dynamo Kyiv – will anchor his side from defence.
Throwing in Chelsea winger Mudryk and Andriy Yarmolenko, the latter who has been involved in five of Ukraine’s eight goals at the European Championship (63%), Rebrov will feel his impressive squad can compete with Slovakia and Belgium for a top-two finish in Group E.
Romania vs Ukraine Head-to-Head
However, experience may be pushed to one side as Monday will mark the first-ever competitive meeting between Romania and Ukraine, with each of the previous six taking place in friendlies.
Romania won the first three encounters between 2001 and 2003, with Ukraine remaining unbeaten in the last trio of fixtures – winning two and drawing one between 2010 and 2016.
Ukraine triumphed in the last clash between this pair, winning 4-3 in a friendly at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in May 2016.
Yarmolenko, Zinchenko, Yevhen Konoplyanka, and Roman Zozulya were all on target in that victory for Ukraine, while Gabriel Torje, Denis Alibec and Nicolae Stanciu found the net for Romania.
Romania vs Ukraine Prediction
The Opta supercomputer fancies Ukraine as the favourites for this one as they overcame Romania in 42.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Romania have a woeful record at UEFA’s flagship international tournament and managed a rare victory in 31.5% of data-led sims, while the draw was predicted in 25.9%.
Favourites Belgium have a 53.1% prediction of topping this group, but Ukraine (69.4%) have the best chance of going through among the other three sides in this pool, according to Opta’s tournament predictions. Romania, though, still have a 57.4% likelihood of progressing.
Romania vs Ukraine Squads
Romania
Florin Nita, Horatiu Moldovan, Stefan Târnovanu, Adrian Rus, Andrei Burca, Andrei Ratiu, Bogdan Racovitan, Ionut Nedelcearu, Nicusor Bancu, Radu Dragusin, Vasile Mogos, Adrian Sut, Alexandru Cicâldau, Darius Olaru, Deian Sorescu, Dennis Man, Florinel Coman, Ianis Hagi, Marius Marin, Nicolae Stanciu, Razvan Marin, Valentin Mihaila, Daniel Bîrligea, Denis Alibec, Denis Dragus, George Puscas.
Head coach: Edward Iordănescu
Ukraine
Anatolii Trubin, Andrii Lunin, Heorhii Bushchan, Bohdan Mykhailichenko, Illia Zabarnyi, Maksym Talovierov, Mykola Matviienko, Oleksandr Svatok, Oleksandr Tymchyk, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Valerii Bondar, Vitalii Mykolenko, Yukhym Konoplia, Andrii Yarmolenko, Heorhii Sudakov, Mykhailo Mudryk, Mykola Shaparenko, Oleksandr Zubkov, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Serhii Sydorchuk, Taras Stepanenko, Volodymyr Brazhko, Artem Dovbyk, Roman Yaremchuk, Viktor Tsyhankov, Vladyslav Vanat.
Head coach: Serhiy Rebrov
Romania vs Ukraine Predicted Lineups
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