Having won this tournament in Germany back in 1988, Ronald Koeman’s side will hope history repeats itself. We look ahead to the Group D opener at Euro 2024 with our Poland vs Netherlands prediction and preview.
Poland vs Netherlands Stats: The Key Insights
- The Netherlands are the favourites for this Euro 2024 clash, defeating Poland in 59.0% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Poland will be without Robert Lewandowski through injury. He is their top scorer in European Championship history, responsible for five of their 11 goals at the tournament.
- The Dutch are unbeaten in their last 12 meetings with Poland (W7 D5).
The Netherlands will be hoping to capitalise on memories of previous successes in Germany when they open their Euro 2024 campaign against Poland, whose talisman Robert Lewandowski is absent for Sunday’s clash at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.
Ronald Koeman, now in charge of the Oranje, lifted this trophy as a player with the Netherlands the last time the European Championship was held in Germany back in 1988. Koeman is one of just two head coaches at Euro 2024 to have won the tournament as a player (along with France’s Didier Deschamps).
The Dutch side have a dominant 76.2% chance of progressing from Group D according to the Opta supercomputer’s predictions – behind only France (92.9%) in a pool that also includes Austria and Sunday’s opponents Poland.
Michał Probierz’s team hold an encouraging 45% chance of making the last 16 at the 17th edition of UEFA’s flagship international competition, though must start their efforts without star striker Lewandowski.
The Barcelona forward will not be fit for the weekend kick-off after suffering a thigh injury in Monday’s 2-1 win over Turkey, which marked Poland’s last warm-up game before the action begins across the border.
Defender Pawel Dawidowicz and striker Karol Swiderski also suffered injuries in the same friendly and will be assessed ahead of Sunday’s game. Swiderseki returned to first-team training on Friday, but Dawidowicz was still training alone and is therefore much less likely to play.
Lewandowski’s absence in particular will be welcome news to Netherlands boss Koeman given the 35-year-old is Poland’s top goalscorer at the European Championship, netting five of their 11 goals overall in the competition. He has also scored four of their last five goals at the tournament, including each of the last three.
With Probierz missing his deadly talisman, another draw may be his team’s best hope. Exactly half of Poland’s games at this tournament have finished level (7/14), the highest ratio of draws for any side to have played in more than one edition of the tournament.
However, Probierz can’t bank on a point apiece in this Group D opener considering none of the Netherlands’ last 12 matches at the Euros have ended in a draw (W6 L6). The last time they shared the spoils in a match at the tournament was in the quarter-finals in 2004, when they knocked out Sweden on penalties (0-0 after extra time, 5-4 penalties).
A point apiece may suit Poland but the Netherlands will be desperate to lay their marker down in a group that sees Koeman’s team and France as the favourites to progress with a top-two finish.
Expect goals, too, as the Netherlands have scored on average of 1.67 goals per game at the European Championship (65 goals in 39 games) – the highest ratio of any team at the tournament. That success in front of goal will only be helped by the exciting Denzel Dumfries, who is likely to continue at right-back.
Dumfries appears a certainty to feature in Koeman’s starting lineup given only Portugal’s Bruno Fernandes (7) assisted more goals in UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying than the Inter right-back (5), with the Dutchman averaging an assist every 101 minutes.
On the other flank, Ian Maatsen – who reached the UEFA Champions League final on loan with Borussia Dortmund this season – secured a late call-up for the Oranje after injuries to Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners. That pair’s absence in midfield could prove crucial to a battling side already missing Marten de Roon.
Koeman has lots of options in defence, however, with captain Virgil van Dijk, Premier League champion Nathan Aké, Tottenham’s Micky van de Ven, Stefan de Vrij of Inter and Bayern Munich defender Matthijs de Ligt to call upon.
That defensive solidity throughout the tournament will likely prove key as the Netherlands aim to make the final for the first time since 2004, having faltered in the last four on numerous occasions. Only Germany, with six, have reached the semi-finals of this competition more often since 1988 than the Netherlands’s four.
Yet can Koeman, who won this competition 36 years ago as a player, guide his country to European glory this time around?
The Dutch are in impressive form heading into their Euro 2024 opener, having won five of their last six matches.
That run includes Monday’s 4-0 hammering of Iceland as Xavi Simons, Van Dijk, Donyell Malen and Wout Weghorst were all on target for Koeman’s side in their final warm-up fixture.
Yet Poland will be by no means pushovers here, with Probierz’s men unbeaten in their last eight outings.
They overcame Turkey in their last friendly before the competition starts after Nicola Zalewski scored a 90th-minute winner in a 2-1 victory. Swiderski had earlier opened the scoring.
Poland vs Netherlands Head-to-Head
Poland are winless in their last 12 meetings with the Netherlands in all competitions (D5 L7), since a 2-0 home win in EURO 1980 qualifying.
The last clash between these two teams ended in a 2-0 win for the Oranje – then managed by Louis van Gaal – back in September 2022.
Cody Gakpo and Steven Bergwijn, both members of the travelling party for this year’s competition, were on target as the Netherlands secured victory in that UEFA Nations League encounter in Warsaw.
Yet this will be the first-ever meeting between Poland and the Netherlands at a major tournament. Coming into Euro 2024, only Germany (19) have beaten more different nations at the European Championship than Koeman’s team (17).
Poland vs Netherlands Prediction
The Netherlands are backed by the Opta supercomputer to start their Euro 2024 campaign with a victory, overcoming Poland in a dominant 59.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Poland were victorious in just 18.0% of those data-led sims, with the draw almost as likely with that result forecast in 23.0%.
Before the tournament started, Koeman’s side finished second in Group D most often in 33.9% of Opta’s predictions, while Poland finished fourth – and failed to make it through the group – in 41.8%.
Poland vs Netherlands Squads
Poland
Lukasz Skorupski, Marcin Bulka, Wojciech Szczesny, Bartosz Bereszynski, Bartosz Salamon, Jakub Kiwior, Jan Bednarek, Pawel Dawidowicz, Sebastian Walukiewicz, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Bartosz Slisz, Damian Szymanski, Jakub Moder, Jakub Piotrowski, Kacper Urbanski, Kamil Grosicki, Nicola Zalewski, Piotr Zielinski, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Sebastian Szymanski, Taras Romanczuk, Adam Buksa, Karol Swiderski, Krzysztof Piatek, Michal Skóras, Robert Lewandowski.
Head coach: Michał Probierz
Netherlands
Bart Verbruggen, Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Daley Blind, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Ian Maatsen, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Wout Weghorst.
Head coach: Ronald Koeman
Poland vs Netherlands Predicted Lineups
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