We look ahead to the Euro 2024 Group B clash in Dortmund with our Italy vs Albania prediction and preview.
Italy vs Albania Stats: The Key Insights
- Italy heavy favourites to start Euro 2024 with a win, beating Albania in 68.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- The Azzurri are looking to become only the second team ever to successfully defend the European Championship.
- Albania boss Sylvinho will become the first Brazilian to manage a side at a European Championship since Luiz Felipe Scolari with Portugal in 2008.
Reigning champions Italy begin the defence of their title in Dortmund against Albania in what will be their first ever meeting at a major tournament.
Luciano Spalletti will lead Italy into their 11th European Championship, but despite the fact that only Germany and Spain have won it more often than the Azzurri (2, in 1968 and 2020), they are not among the favourites according to the Opta supercomputer. Italy are given only a 5% chance of matching their Euro 2020 achievement, with six other teams considered likelier victors.
Should they manage to go all the way, Italy will become only the second team to win back-to-back Euros after Spain (2008 and 2012).
Albania are their first Group B opponent, and despite Sylvinho’s side having attacking talent such as Armando Broja and Rey Manaj, they will have their work cut out to break down Italy, who haven’t conceded more than one goal in a match across the last two Euros. Italy have conceded just six goals in their last 12 matches in the competition.
In fact, this could be a low-scoring affair. Italy’s 45 matches at European Championships have produced 1.84 goals on average (52 for, 31 against), the lowest ratio of any of the 25 teams to have taken part in 10+ matches in the competition.
Albania are making only their second appearance at a European Championship, and their first since Euro 2016 when they were eliminated in the group stage, finishing third behind France and Switzerland. Their one win in the competition came against Romania that year, beating them 1-0 thanks to an Armando Sadiku goal.
Former Arsenal and Barcelona left-back Sylvinho leads Albania into the tournament in Germany, and in good form too. After losing their first Euro 2024 qualifier against Poland, Albania went unbeaten in their next seven (W4 D3) and for the first time in their history, finished top of their qualifying group for a major international tournament, ahead of Czech Republic and Poland. They only conceded four goals in qualifying, all of which came away from home.
Having a former international defender in charge probably helped with that. Sylvinho will be the first Brazilian to manage a side at a European Championship since Luiz Felipe Scolari with Portugal in 2008.
Italy will be sweating on the fitness of midfielder Nicolò Barella who ended his successful season with Inter with a muscle injury. He recorded more assists than any other Italy player during Euro 2024 qualifying (3) and created seven more chances than any of his teammates (15).
With Spain and Croatia also competing in a strong-looking Group B, getting off to a winning start will be vital for Italy if they want to finish in first place. Albania’s qualifying form suggests they won’t be an easy proposition, though.
Italy vs Albania Head-to-Head
This will be Italy and Albania’s first meeting at a major tournament.
Italy have won all four of their previous meetings with Albania (7 goals for, 1 against), which have all taken place since 2014.
A 1-0 win in a friendly in Genoa in 2014 was followed by 2-0 and 1-0 victories in qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. Their last encounter saw the Azzurri win a friendly in Tirana 3-1 in November 2022 thanks to goals from Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Vincenzo Grifo (2).
Italy vs Albania Prediction
Despite Albania’s recent form, the Opta supercomputer is backing reigning Euro champions Italy to pick up the win. Spalletti’s men are victorious in 68.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Albania pull off what would be considered an upset win in 13.0% of sims, while a draw occurs in the remaining 18.9%.
In terms of the group, Italy are expected to finish second in Group B according to the supercomputer (32.5%) while they make it through to the last 16 in 80% of sims. Albania finish bottom of the group most often (56.4%) but do make it through the last 16 themselves 33.4% of the time.
Italy vs Albania Squads
Italy
Alex Meret, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielmo Vicario, Alessandro Bastoni, Alessandro Buongiorno, Andrea Cambiaso, Federico Dimarco, Federico Gatti, Gianluca Mancini, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Matteo Darmian, Raoul Bellanova, Riccardo Calafiori, Bryan Cristante, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Michael Folorunsho, Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Fagioli, Federico Chiesa, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui, Mattia Zaccagni, Stephan El Shaarawy.
Head coach: Luciano Spalletti
Albania
Elhan Kastrati, Etrit Berisha, Thomas Strakosha, Ardian Ismajli, Arlind Ajeti, Berat Djimsiti, Elseid Hysaj, Enea Mihaj, Iván Balliu, Marash Kumbulla, Mario Mitaj, Naser Aliji, Amir Abrashi, Ernest Muçi, Klaus Gjasula, Kristjan Asllani, Medon Berisha, Nedim Bajrami, Qazim Laçi, Ylber Ramadani, Arbër Hoxha, Armando Broja, Jasir Asani, Mirlind Daku, Rey Manaj, Taulant Seferi.
Head coach: Sylvinho
Italy vs Albania Predicted Lineups
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