We look ahead to Wednesday’s Euro 2024 Group F clash in Gelsenkirchen with our Georgia vs Portugal prediction and preview.


Georgia vs Portugal Stats: The Key Insights

  • Portugal are unsurprisingly the big favourites, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 64.9% chance of victory.
  • If he plays, Cristiano Ronaldo will make his 50th appearance at a major international tournament.
  • After drawing 1-1 with the Czech Republic and losing to Turkey, Georgia are aiming for their first ever major tournament win.

Making their major tournament bow at Euro 2024, Georgia have caught the eye with their high-intensity approach to games, pushing both Turkey and the Czech Republic all the way in their first two fixtures.

They are chasing what would be a historic first major tournament win, having drawn and lost their opening two matches. Only Greece have got their first such victory against Portugal, beating them en route to lifting the trophy at Euro 2004.

Georgia have proven tough to beat in the last year; since losing three in a row between June and September 2023, they have only lost two of their last nine games (W4 D3).

Georges Mikautadze etched his name into Georgia’s history books after scoring their first goal at the Euros, before becoming the sixth player to net both of his nation’s first two goals at the tournament and the first since Andriy Shevchenko in 2012 for Ukraine.

After a free-flowing attacking performance in their 3-1 defeat to Turkey, which saw Georgia have 14 shots and hit the woodwork twice, they failed to recapture that same spark against the Czechs.

They did earn their first point, though, agonisingly missing out on that first victory as Saba Lobjanidze squandered a golden chance with the last kick of the game.

Across the first two matchdays of Euro 2024, Georgia faced more shots (49), more shots on target (20) and had a higher expected goals against (xGA) figure (6.1) than any other side.

Furthermore, Giorgi Mamardashvili made more saves (16) – 11 of which came against the Czech Republic – and prevented more goals (3.1) than any other goalkeeper in the first two matchdays, according to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGOT) conceded model; he let in four goals despite facing an xGOT of 7.1.

It will likely be an even sterner test for the Valencia goalkeeper against the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, but if he can maintain that level, he will give Georgia a chance.

Playing at a record sixth Euros at 39 years old, Ronaldo had seen his place in the squad debated in the build-up to the tournament.

He started Portugal’s first two matches, though, and should he retain his place against Georgia, he will become the first European player in history to make 50 major tournament appearances (28 of those will have come at the Euros, while he has played 22 times at the World Cup).

Nevertheless, questions continued to circulate after a frustrating outing for Ronaldo in their 2-1 victory against the Czechs on MD1, as he failed to score from five shots worth 0.7 xG, including missing one Opta-defined big chance.

However, he silenced some of those critics with another slice of history in their dominant win over Turkey on Saturday, teeing up Fernandes to get his seventh assist at European Championship tournaments – the most on record of any player in the competition’s history.

Despite also being the tournament’s all-time top scorer, Ronaldo is yet to hit the net in 2024, though the Seleção are the second-highest scorers at Euro 2024 with five goals. 

Portugal have benefitted from an own goal in both of their games – only Spain in the 2020 edition have benefitted from more at a single Euros (three), while no team has ever done so in three consecutive games at the finals before.

Roberto Martínez will not be too worried about that, however. After two commanding performances, they look to stay perfect heading into the last 16.

Georgia vs Portugal Head-to-Head

This will be just the second meeting ever between the nations, with Portugal coming out on top with a 2-0 friendly win in May 2008.

João Moutinho and Simão were on target on that occasion.

The Selecao look well set to repeat that victory after putting a recent European Championship hoodoo behind them; having won their first two games, Portugal have now won more group matches than they had across the 2016 and 2020 editions combined (W1 D4 L1).

However, only once before have Portugal won all three of their group games in the competition (2000).

Georgia vs Portugal Prediction

Georgia vs Portugal prediction - Opta

Portugal are the big favourites to make it three wins from three games, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 64.9% chance of getting the job done.

While Georgia’s spirited performances have earned them praise, they produced an upset and emerged victorious in just 14.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. The remaining 20.4% ended level.

But looking beyond this game, Portugal – who are already assured of winning the group – are deemed to be the fifth favourites, going all the way in 10.1% of the tournament sims.

Georgia are given just a 15.4% chance of making it to the knockouts.

Georgia vs Portugal Squads

Georgia

Giorgi Loria, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Luka Gugeshashvili, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Giorgi Gvelesiani, Guram Kashia, Jimmy Tabidze, Lasha Dvali, Luka Lochoshvili, Otar Kakabadze, Solomon Kverkvelia, Anzor Mekvabishvili, Gabriel Sigua, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Nika Kvekveskiri, Otar Kiteishvili, Saba Lobjanidze, Sandro Altunashvili, Budu Zivzivadze, Georges Mikautadze, Giorgi Kvilitaia, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Levan Shengelia, Zuriko Davitashvili. 

Head coach: Willy Sagnol 

Portugal

Diogo Costa, José Sá, Rui Patrício, António Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Gonçalo Inácio, João Cancelo, Nélson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Rúben Dias, Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, João Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceição, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão. 

Head coach: Roberto Martínez 

Georgia vs Portugal Predicted Lineups

Georgia predicted lineup
Portugal predicted lineup

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