Both sides may have underwhelmed at Euro 2024 so far, but the quarter-finals beckon for one of them. Look ahead to their last-16 clash with our France vs Belgium prediction and preview.
France vs Belgium Stats: The Key Insights
- France are big favourites here, coming out on top inside 90 minutes in 49.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.
- Only Serbia had a poorer shot conversion record than France and Belgium (both 4.2%) in the group stage.
- France’s two goals in Euro 2024 is their poorest return in a major tournament group stage since the 2010 World Cup (1 goal).
Neither France nor Belgium impressed during the group stage of Euro 2024; their punishment, a difficult last-16 date with each other and landing on the tougher side of the knockout draw.
While expectations may not have been sky high for Belgium coming into the tournament, most would’ve expected them to comfortably win a Group E that also contained Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine. They came second having managed just a solitary win.
France, on the other hand, went into Euro 2024 among the favourites to win the whole thing given the talent at their disposal and recent pedigree in major international tournaments. However, they also only managed to finish as runners-up in their group as surprise package Austria topped the section.
After beating Austria – some might suggest fortunately – on Matchday 1, Les Bleus were held to successive draws by the Netherlands and Poland, with the latter finishing bottom of the group.
They scored just two goals en route to the last 16, their fewest in a major tournament group stage since the 2010 World Cup (1). Furthermore, those two goals came via a Max Wöber own goal for Austria and a Kylian Mbappé penalty, having 47 non-penalty attempts without finding the net.
Granted, the only goal France conceded was also a penalty (meaning their group games had 70 non-penalty shots overall without any leading to a goal), so defensively they were shrewd enough, but performances were unspectacular.
As a result of those stalemates with the Netherlands and Poland, France have drawn five of their last six Euros matches (W1) after only drawing four of their previous 25 games in the competition (W14 L7). Their game at this stage of Euro 2020 was also one of those five draws, tying 3-3 with Switzerland before going out 5-4 on penalties.
Had they ultimately won the group, France would’ve got themselves what many would consider to be a kinder draw both in terms of their last-16 opposition – Turkey – and that they’d have landed on the other side of the knockout bracket to the likes of Spain, Germany and Portugal.
It’s also fair to say Belgium have the weaponry to be problematic, even if they too flattered to deceive in the group stage.
The Red Devils will be appearing in the knockout stage of a third consecutive European Championship, having reached the quarter-finals at both Euro 2016 and Euro 2020. They’ve won each of their past four last-16 games at major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) since defeat to Brazil in the 2002 World Cup (2-0).
The omens aren’t great for a feast of goals in this tie, though. Only Serbia (3.8%) had a poorer shot conversion rate in the group stage than Belgium and France (both 4.2% – 2 goals from 48 shots). In fact, the Belgians have scored just three goals in six games across the last two major tournaments (2022 World Cup & Euro 2024), scoring from only 3.6% of their shots (3/83) and underperforming their expected goals (xG) by 6.15 (3 goals from 9.15 xG).
A place in the quarter-finals is the main prize on offer here, however there are also a few milestones in sight for Mbappé.
Having netted his first ever Euros goal against Poland, the soon-to-be Real Madrid player is just one off Michel Platini’s French record for goals in major tournaments (14). He’s also only two goals away from becoming the third player to score 50 goals for Les Bleus after Olivier Giroud (57) and Thierry Henry (51).
France vs Belgium Head-to-Head
This will be France and Belgium’s 76th encounter in men’s international football. The Red Devils are France’s most frequent all-time opponent, having faced them nearly twice as often as any other team (39 meetings each with Italy and Switzerland). Meanwhile, Belgium have only faced the Netherlands (129 times) on more occasions than they have taken on France.
Les Bleus have won all four of their previous matches against Belgium at major international tournaments (World Cup and European Championship), scoring 13 goals and conceding just three.
Their only previous meeting at a European Championship was 40 years ago; France won 5-0 in the group stage of Euro 1984 courtesy of a Platini hat-trick and goals from Alain Giresse and Luis Fernandez en route to lifting the trophy for the first time.
France vs Belgium Prediction
France are firm favourites to progress to the quarter-finals from this tie. In the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, Les Bleus were victorious 49.6% of the time inside 90 minutes.
Belgium came out on top without needing extra-time in 22.6% of the sims, meaning the supercomputer suggests they have nearly a 50% chance of taking the game to an additional 30 minutes at the very least.
Deschamps’ men are still regarded one of the favourites for the trophy, going all the way in 13.0% of the tournament simulations, though that’s down from 19.1% before a ball was kicked, reflecting the difficult path ahead of them.
Belgium are very much considered outsiders. They claimed the title in just 2.0% of the projections.
France vs Belgium Squads
France
Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
Belgium
Koen Casteels, Matz Sels, Thomas Kaminski, Arthur Theate, Axel Witsel, Jan Vertonghen, Maxim De Cuyper, Thomas Meunier, Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Amadou Onana, Arthur Vermeeren, Aster Vranckx, Kevin De Bruyne, Orel Mangala, Youri Tielemans, Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukébakio, Jérémy Doku, Johan Bakayoko, Leandro Trossard, Loïs Openda, Romelu Lukaku, Yannick Carrasco.
Head coach: Domenico Tedesco
France vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
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