Two previous Euros winners in France and the Netherlands are the teams to beat in Group D. They are joined by Poland and Austria, who will want to do more than just make up the numbers. Ahead of the action, we analyse the Opta supercomputer’s Euro 2024 Group D predictions.
France will look to go one better from the World Cup final heartache they suffered in Qatar 18 months ago when they head to Germany for Euro 2024.
Didier Deschamps’ side are co-tournament favourites and joined in Group D by the Netherlands, Poland and Austria. Les Blues will once again be expected to make a deep run.
But is their qualification for the knockout stages a formality? Or will a resurgent Dutch team have something to say about that? What about Poland and Austria’s chances of causing an upset?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s Euro 2024 Group D predictions to answer those questions and a whole lot more.
Euro 2024 Group D Predictions: The Quick Stats
- France are expected to breeze through. They have a 92.9% chance of qualifying for the last 16, and a 57.9% chance of topping the group.
- The Netherlands are projected to follow France into the last 16 (76.2%). They finish second in Group D 33.9% of the time.
- Austria (51.1%) and Poland (45.0%) aren’t expected to threaten the top two but still have healthy qualification chances for the knockout stages.
Star-studded France are the headliners of Group D. Deschamps’ side are the Opta supercomputer’s second favourites to win Euro 2024 (19.1%) and will expect to once again be competing for the top prize when all is said and done in mid-July.
France’s current golden generation has reached the final in three of their last four major tournaments and will be desperate to add another trophy to their 2018 World Cup triumph.
At 30.4%, Les Blues have almost a one-in-three shot of reaching yet another final – that’s a figure that only England (31.1%) can better.
In terms of their Group D chances, progression looks to be serene. They have a 92.9% chance of qualifying for the last 16, and a 57.9% of doing so in first place.
The French have dominant head-to-head records against all of their Group D opponents, including the Netherlands, whom they beat twice comprehensively in their qualification campaign.
Kylian Mbappé was electric in qualifying, scoring nine goals and providing five assists, and only Romelu Lukaku (15) had a hand in more goals. Mbappé is still seeking his first European Championship goal, but if he gets on a roll, France will take some beating.
The Netherlands will be hoping to do just that. Given a 76.2% chance of qualifying for the last 16, they are the clear second favourites in Group D.
A European Championship in Germany will bring back many fond memories for Dutch supporters, too. The Oranje won the tournament the last time it was held exclusively in Germany in 1988, beating the USSR in the final (2-0). Current manager, Ronald Koeman, was in the Netherlands side that day and he is one of just two managers at Euro 2024 to have won the tournament as a player (along with Deschamps).
Koeman’s side have a 5.1% of winning their second European Championship title according to the supercomputer, but perhaps a more realistic expectation would be a quarter-final exit. That was the outcome in 45.8% of our tournament simulations.
Austria and Poland are then predicted to battle it out for third in the group. Less than 2% separates the two teams between finishing third in our projections – Austria 32.5%, Poland 30.9% – and both sides have a healthy chance of qualifying for the last 16; particularly given there are four ‘best third-placed teams’ spots up for grabs.
Austria recorded their best-ever finish at the delayed European Championship in 2021, reaching the last 16 before being knocked by eventual winners Italy. The Austrians have a 51.1% chance of getting that far once again, and a 24.3% chance of making it to the quarter-finals.
Ralf Rangnick is in the dugout for them now and, despite rumoured interest from Bayern Munich this summer, has recently reaffirmed his commitment to the Austria national team.
In true Red Bull style, Rangnick has got his team to press aggressively and energetically from the front. Austria had the lowest PPDA (opposition passes allowed per defensive action) of any side during the Euro 2024 qualifying, allowing 8.3 opposition passes for every defensive action, while only Spain (13.0) averaged more high turnovers per game than their 11.9.
Poland qualified for Euro 2024 after overcoming Wales on penalties in the play-offs, despite not registering a single shot on target in 120 minutes.
The Poles are very good at qualifying for the European Championship – they are one of only eight nations to have qualified for each of the last five tournaments – but they are less good once they get there, winning just two of 14 Euros games (D7 L5) in their history. Their 14% win ratio is the second lowest of any nation to play 10+ games, ahead only of Romania (6%, 1 win in 16).
This could well be the last major tournament for Poland’s leading all-time goalscorer, Robert Lewandowski. The Barcelona man is both Poland’s leading appearance maker (11) and scorer (5) at the European Championship.
At 41.8%, Poland’s most likely finishing position in the group is fourth, but the Matchday 2 encounter with Austria will probably decide who qualifies for the last 16 between the pair of them.
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