We look ahead to this Euro 2024 last-16 tie in Gelsenkirchen with our England vs Slovakia prediction and preview.
England vs Slovakia Stats: The Key Insights
- England are predicted to win this match by the Opta supercomputer, earning victory inside 90 minutes in 65.3% of pre-game simulations.
- Gareth Southgate’s side allowed opponents shots worth just 1.15 xG in the group stage – fewer than every other team.
- Slovakia had 37 shots overall and 13 shots on target in the group stage, both highs for them in the group stage of a major tournament.
England head into the knockout stage having won Group C but with thoroughly underwhelming performances in their three matches at Euro 2024 so far. They come up against Slovakia in the last 16 on Sunday in Gelsenkirchen, in what many deem the ‘weaker’ half of the knockout bracket.
Gareth Southgate’s side held on to win 1-0 against Serbia in their opening match of the tournament, before uninspiring draws against Denmark (1-1) and Slovenia (0-0) to finish the group campaign.
Captain Harry Kane scored once in those three games but has been criticised for his performances, much like in the last European Championship group stage before coming good in the knockouts. England’s all-time record scorer has netted six goals in his last six appearances in the knockout stages of major tournaments for the Three Lions (two in two at 2022 World Cup, four in four at Euro 2020). His seven goals overall in the knockouts are also the most of any England player.
Despite falling below expectations in attack, England have been hard to break down. They have allowed opponents shots worth just 1.15 expected goals in their three matches, which was lower than every other team at the tournament in the group stage.
Phil Foden’s role in the starting XI came under question, with the Man City forward often drifting in from the left side and struggling to make an impact. He was arguably England’s best player in their final group game versus Slovenia, however, involved in five of England 12 shots (three shots, two chances created). He travelled back to England after Tuesday’s match to be present at the birth of his child but has returned to Germany and is expected to continue his role in the team on Sunday.
Southgate still hasn’t decided on his preferred midfield setup at the tournament, after experimenting with Trent Alexander-Arnold alongside Declan Rice, before swapping him for Conor Gallagher against Slovenia. Gallagher only lasted 45 minutes before Kobbie Mainoo was brought on to replace him, and it’s the talented Manchester United youngster who is expected to start in this tie.
Slovakia kicked off their Euro 2024 campaign with a sensational victory, shocking Belgium 1-0 in Group E. Despite another goal from Ivan Schranz, who scored the winner against the Red Devils, Slovakia went down 2-1 to Ukraine in their second match before a 1-1 draw with Romania in their final game. That ensured Francesco Calzona’s side made it to the knockouts as one of the four best third-placed teams in the group stage.
The average age of the Slovakia starting XI (30 years, 218 days) in the group stage was the oldest in the competition. They’ve handed 809 minutes to players aged 35 or older, with only Italy at Euro 2016 giving more at a single European Championship (870). One of those players – Martin Dúbravka – will be one of the most familiar Slovakian stars to England fans, having played 23 games for Newcastle United last season in the Premier League, where he conceded an average of 1.83 goals per game.
Slovakia have no fresh injury worries for this game, while none of their players are suspended. Across their three group games, Calzona made just one change to his starting XI overall, so widespread changes to their side or compact 4-3-3 formation aren’t expected for this tie.
England vs Slovakia Head-to-Head
England have won five of their six games against Slovakia – however, their one failure to defeat them was at Euro 2016 in their only previous major tournament meeting, a goalless draw in Saint-Étienne, in which the Three Lions had their most shots (29) in a European Championship match on record (since 1980).
The most recent meeting between these two nations came in September 2017, when goals from Eric Dier and Marcus Rashford sealed a 2-1 victory at Wembley in a World Cup qualifier. Earlier in that qualification campaign, a last-minute Adam Lallana goal won England all three points in Trnava in what was Sam Allardyce’s only game in charge of the Three Lions.
England vs Slovakia Prediction
England are the big favourites coming into this Euro 2024 last-16 tie against Slovakia, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them come out on top inside 90 minutes across 65.3% of pre-match simulations.
Overall, the Three Lions have a 75.9% chance of getting through to the quarter-finals (considering the possibility of extra-time and penalties), which is only below Spain’s likelihood (83.0%).
England vs Slovakia Squads
England
Aaron Ramsdale, Dean Henderson, Jordan Pickford, Ezri Konsa, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Kieran Trippier, Kyle Walker, Lewis Dunk, Luke Shaw, Marc Guéhi, Adam Wharton, Conor Gallagher, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Kobbie Mainoo, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Anthony Gordon, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Eberechi Eze, Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Jarrod Bowen, Ollie Watkins, Phil Foden.
Head coach: Gareth Southgate
Slovakia
Henrich Ravas, Marek Rodák, Martin Dúbravka, Adam Obert, Dávid Hancko, Denis Vavro, Milan Skriniar, Norbert Gyömbér, Peter Pekarík, Sebastián Kósa, Vernon De Marco, Juraj Kucka, László Bénes, Matús Bero, Ondrej Duda, Patrik Hrosovsky, Stanislav Lobotka, Tomás Rigo, Tomás Suslov, Dávid Duris, David Strelec, Ivan Schranz, Leo Sauer, Lubomír Tupta, Lukás Haraslín, Róbert Bozeník.
Head coach: Francesco Calzona
England vs Slovakia Predicted Lineups
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