With the Copa America getting under way on 20 June, we asked the Opta supercomputer to see who the favourites are heading into the tournament in the United States. It’s our 2024 Copa America predictions.

Euro 2024 is not the only major tournament taking place over the course of June and July, with football fans in for a treat as the Copa America rolls around.

Argentina head into the tournament – to be held in the United States – as the reigning champions, with Lionel Messi and co. having ended the nation’s 28-year wait for glory when they triumphed over fellow South American giants Brazil in 2021.

La Albiceleste then triumphed at the 2022 World Cup, with Messi getting his hands on the one trophy that had been missing from his vast collection.

Many onlookers thought Messi may well retire from international football after that success in Qatar, but the superstar, who of course plies his trade in the USA with Inter Miami, will be spearheading Argentina’s title defence.

Naturally, Argentina are the favourites to win the Copa America this summer, according to the Opta supercomputer, and Brazil won’t be far behind.

We have simulated the 2024 Copa America 10,000 times and the Opta prediction model has collated these findings and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages. So, without further ado, let’s run through our Copa America predictions.

Copa America 2024 Predictions

  • Argentina are the big favourites, with a 30.8% chance of winning the tournament and retaining their crown.
  • Brazil, as expected, are second favourites. The Seleção triumphed in 23.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
  • Uruguay are well fancied under Marcelo Bielsa (12.6%), but Bolivia and Jamaica’s chances of going all the way are close to zero.
Copa America Predictions 2024

Copa America 2024 Favourites


The holders are not always the favourites heading into major international tournaments – for example, Italy are not well fancied at all ahead of Euro 2024.

Yet, for Copa champions Argentina, it’s a different story.

Argentina are the world’s best team, according to the current FIFA rankings, and with a quick look at their squad, it’s not hard to see why.

They are stacked with talent. Supporting Messi in attack are Angel Di Maria, who will hang up his international boots after the tournament, Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez, while Alejandro Garnacho, Nicolás González and Ángel Correa are not bad options to have either. Indeed, Paulo Dybala has not even made the cut, such is the quality at Scaloni’s disposal.

Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister are excellent midfielders, while Rodrigo De Paul brings a bit of flair to go with his bite. Emiliano Martínez is arguably among the top five goalkeepers in world football. He is a player who thrives in the big moments, and actively enjoys the pressure, as demonstrated in penalty shootouts at the last Copa America and World Cup. And, according to Opta’s expected goals on target model, he conceded eight fewer goals than anticipated based on the quality of shots he faced in the Premier League in 2023-24.

Emiliano Martinez xGOT 23-24

Argentina are given a 30.8% chance of winning the tournament, and a whopping 50.5% likelihood of making the final. Their side of the draw does look kind, too, with Mexico and Chile, at least on paper, the teams most likely to cause them a threat. The holders are almost certain, at 89.8%, to reach the quarters, with a 67.2% chance of making the semi-finals.

Chile, along with Canada and Peru, will be their opponents in Group A, which Argentina won in 69.6% of our model’s simulations. There is only a 10.2% chance of them failing to progress.

With 15 titles to their name, Argentina are the joint-record winners of the Copa America, alongside Uruguay.

Messi is, of course, their talisman, and expect it to be all about the little magician again, as it was at the World Cup and the 2021 Copa America, in which he finished as the joint-top scorer and also provided five assists. The Miami star will overtake Chilean great Sergio Livingstone for all-time appearances in the competition, too – they are currently tied on 34.

In what will surely be his last Copa America, with the next edition not due until 2028, Messi could also quite easily match or surpass record scorers Noberto Méndez and Zizinho (17 goals each). He is on 13 as it stands, and since 2011, has registered 102 shots at the Copa America, 33 more than anyone else, so he will certainly not be shy at having a pop. The Barcelona legend has also created 76 chances in that timespan, too. A creative force as ever.

But Messi is ably supported. In Lautaro Martínez, Argentina have a forward who finished top of Serie A’s scoring charts and led Inter to the Scudetto. Álvarez is probably more likely to play centrally, though – he contributed to 32 goals for Manchester City (19 goals, 13 assists) in 2023-24, outperforming his expected goals (xG) of 17.5.

Then there is veteran campaigner Di Maria. He scored nine times in Portugal’s top flight for Benfica in the season just gone, while laying on a further 10 goals and creating more chances (80) than any other player in the league. Indeed, his 13.4 expected assists (xA) was almost five clear of anybody else (Sporting CP’s Pedro Gonçalves was second, with 8.5).

Argentina, who have played more Copa matches (201) and scored more goals in the tournament (474) than any other team, have it all. They just need to put it together again to complete an era of dominance under Scaloni.


The team that the Opta prediction model believes is most likely to challenge Argentina is, of course, their great rivals.

Brazil coach Dorival Júnior was pretty ruthless in his selection process. Gabriel Jesus has missed out, even though he was fit by the end of the season. Richarlison is injured, but had previously been a mainstay and had played through the pain barrier for his country. Neymar, of course, was never up for selection due to his ACL injury, though fellow stalwart Casemiro has been cut due to his poor form for Manchester United.

But Brazil still have plenty of talent at their disposal. Vinícius Júnior, fresh from scoring for Real Madrid in the Champions League final, is the Seleção’s leading light. He netted 24 times for Los Blancos in 2023-24 and attempted 286 dribbles – 10 more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions. He averaged 8.4 take-on attempts per 90, a tally bettered by only Jérémy Doku, while Vinícius also boasts a dribble completion rate of 3.3 per 90.

Vinicius progressive carries

Endrick, meanwhile, is a superstar in the making. He will be linking up with Vinícius at Real Madrid next season, and the 17-year-old has taken the number nine shirt for this tournament. After his brilliant header – from a Vinícius cross – against Mexico on June 8, Endrick has scored three goals for the Seleção in just five appearances. Those goals came in three consecutive matches, and the last player to net in four successive games for Brazil was Neymar in June 2021.

This Brazil team perhaps lacks the magic of previous vintages, but there is a streetfighter steel to the Seleção, with the likes of Lucas Paqueta, Bruno Guimarães and Douglas Luiz in midfield.

If they were to top their group, which includes Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica, then Brazil won’t meet Argentina until the final, should both teams make it that far. Brazil are anticipated to win Group D, at 60.5%, with a 25.3% chance of finishing second.

The probability of them adding to their nine Copa America titles is 23.3%, with a 38.8% chance of them making the final.

The Other Contenders


Between them, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil have won the Copa America 39 times – 83% of the editions.

Uruguay – who will be appearing at the tournament for the 46th time – were outright record holders for 10 years after their last success in 2011, and under Marcelo Bielsa, they should be considered as more than just dark horses.

La Celeste thrashed Mexico 4-0 in a pre-tournament friendly last week, and under Bielsa’s guidance, they have already beaten Argentina and Brazil in World Cup qualifying – they are second in the CONMEBOL standings.

Luis Suárez, Uruguay’s record goalscorer (68 goals in 138 caps) is in the squad and comes into the tournament in fine form, having scored 12 goals in MLS this season, averaging one every 96 minutes for Miami, where he dovetails brilliantly with his old friend Messi.

Suárez’s goals have come from 7.9 xG – an impressive overperformance of 4.1. Of players to score at least five goals in MLS this season, Suárez boasts the fourth-highest shot conversion rate (33.3%).

Luis Suarez xG 24-25

Arguably more important to Bielsa’s attack, however, is Darwin Núñez – the Liverpool striker scored a hat-trick in that victory over Mexico, and is the top scorer in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, with five goals.

Federico Valverde is one of the world’s best all-round midfielders, while Ronald Araujo and José Giménez’s form, on paper, a fearsome centre-back pairing. Flamengo’s Nicolás de la Cruz could be set to shine, while Manuel Ugarte and Rodrigo Bentancur are also excellent.

The Opta supercomputer gives Uruguay a 12.6% chance of going all the way, and a 24.9% chance of making the final. They have been paired with hosts USA in Group C, which Uruguay are predicted to win (55.7%).

They will likely have to face Brazil at some stage if they are to reach the showpiece match, but Bielsa’s side will have no fear.

United States

The hosts are fourth favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, albeit their chances are slim, at 7.1%.

To be fair, based on recent performances, that might be being kind to Gregg Berhalter’s team. Sure, they have plenty of potential – securing Folarin Balogun’s allegiance was something of a coup, with the striker snubbing England, though he has not had the greatest of seasons for Monaco.

Christian Pulisic has thrived at Milan and is the USA’s captain, but he can’t do it all on his own. Timothy Weah, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Yunus Musah all have plenty of top-flight experience, and Haji Wright had an excellent season for Coventry City in the Championship, but the Stars and Stripes have lost three of their last five matches, including a 5-1 hammering at the hands of a rampant Colombia at the weekend.

Two years ahead of hosting the 2026 World Cup, the pressure will be on the USA to perform as the host nation. They should get out of the group, with our model forecasting them to finish second behind Uruguay, though there is a 35.5% chance they fail to progress – Panama will be no pushovers, even if Bolivia look weak.


Colombia are the form team in South American football – they are unbeaten in a whopping 22 matches, a run that dates back to March 2022, even though they did not qualify for the World Cup that year.

Their vibrant fans were certainly missed in Qatar, and having reached the semi-finals at the 2021 Copa America, Colombia feel like they could be ready to pop on the big stage again, 23 years on from their sole triumph in the competition.

Luis Díaz was top scorer at the last Copa, and that tally of four strikes included some stunners. James Rodríguez might be heading into the twilight of his career, but the former Madrid playmaker has been in sensational form for his country under Néstor Lorenzo, who has Colombia in a strong position to qualify for the next World Cup – they are third in the South American standings.

Colombia will face Brazil in Group D, but they still have a one-in-four chance of finishing top, and a 37.5% likelihood of progressing in second place.

A likely quarter-final tie against the USA or Uruguay gives Colombia a 31.8% probability of progressing to the last four, where they could face Argentina, so their chances of making the final drop to 13.3%, with a 6.0% chance of them going the distance.

The Unlikely Lads

Bolivia have only won the Copa America once, and that was over 60 years ago when they hosted the 1963 edition. The Opta supercomputer does not fancy their chances of ending that run, however – they have a 0.4% win probability, the lowest of all teams.

It doesn’t fancy Jamaica either (0.5%), though the Reggae Boyz definitely boast a more impressive talent pool to pick from. However, it appears their best player – Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey – will not be playing at this tournament following disparaging comments he made about the national team earlier this year. Demarai Gray, Michail Antonio and Bobby De Cordova-Reid bring Premier League experience, but none of them possess Bailey’s quality. Jamaica have been drawn into Group B alongside Mexico, Venezuela and Ecuador, so they do have a 26.0% chance of making the last eight, though not much hope of progressing beyond that – especially if they come up against Argentina, which would be likely with a second-place finish in the group.

Panama reached the CONCACAF Gold Cup final last year, but they have only a 0.5% chance of lifting this trophy. That is a figure just below Paraguay (0.9%), Venezuela (1.2%), Peru (1.5%), Costa Rica (0.7%) and Canada (0.8%) – Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David are excellent players, but unlikely to be enough to drag Jesse Marsch’s team to an unlikely triumph, though the Reds did draw 0-0 with France to get some confidence back after a heavy loss to the Netherlands.

Chile won back-to-back Copas in 2015 and 2016, but while Alexis Sánchez, Arturo Vidal and Eduardo Vargas – one of the top all-time leading goalscorers in the tournament, with 14 – are still in their ranks, they have just a 3.1% probability of lifting the trophy for a third time, though their chances of making it out of Group A alongside Argentina are decent, at 47.6%.

Ecuador have a promising squad, with Moisés Caicedo the pick of the bunch, though they are still heavily reliant on Enner Valencia to get their goals, while they mustered just 0.01 xG in a 1-0 friendly loss to Argentina on Sunday – they have a 66.1% chance of making it out of Group B, but their chances of making the last four drop to 29.9%, and they won the tournament in just 4.8% of our simulations.

Mexico‘s win probability of 5.8% is just shy of Colombia’s chance, but their defeats to Brazil and Uruguay show that they are perhaps not the dark horses that they are often considered to be at major tournaments. They should win Group B (39.7%), yet don’t be surprised if they are a big-name early casualty. If they do progress, then they will probably have to get past Argentina to reach the final.

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