We look ahead to the Indian Super League final with our Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City prediction and preview.
The curtains close on the 10th edition of the Indian Super League this weekend, as Mohun Bagan and Mumbai City face off in the ISL final on Saturday – a rematch of the final from three years ago.
Both teams witnessed managerial changes midway through this season, with Petr Kratky replacing Des Buckingham at Mumbai City in December, while Antonio López came in at Mohun Bagan to replace fellow Spaniard Juan Ferrando a month later. Kratky’s men suffered a 2-1 defeat to the Mariners on the final day this season, missing out on the league crown to them. On the flip side, López will be eager to avenge the 2020-21 final loss against the Islanders.
Form, Style of Play and Head-to-Head
Both Mohun Bagan Super Giant and Mumbai City FC broke seasonal records in the ISL this term. Mohun Bagan topped the regular season table with 48 points, one ahead of Mumbai – the two highest points tallies secured by teams in a single season of the Indian Super League.
The finalists were the highest-scoring teams in the league phase (Mohun Bagan: 47 goals. Mumbai City: 40 goals), while both saw 15 different players score this season – the most seen in a single season of the competition.
Mohun Bagan SG have lost just two of their 14 ISL games this season under López (W10 D2) and have failed to score in only one. In fact, the Mariners have scored the first goal in each of their last nine games in the competition.
Mumbai City come into this on a hot goalscoring streak. The Islanders have scored a goal in each of their previous 14 games, their second-longest such stretch after a run of 28 games between January 2022 and February 2023.
Goals will be on the cards in this fixture, but the two sides have contrasting approaches to scoring. The difference in the style of play adds another layer of intrigue to this battle.
López’s side set up in a back-three system, utilising their width in the attacking phase. Just 24.6% of their attacking touches this season have come through the middle third, underlining the emphasis on wide areas under the veteran Spanish manager. This has enabled wide players like Manvir Singh to shine in the attacking third, with the Indian winger recording his best season to date in terms of output (4 goals and 7 assists).
The Islanders, on the other hand, have a measured approach on the ball. Kratky’s side recorded a pass completion rate of 81.1%, the second highest in the league behind Odisha FC (81.2%). Mumbai City (200) are one of only two sides to record 200+ open-play sequences of 10 or more passes in the competition this term alongside Odisha FC (280).
Mumbai City have lost just one of their previous nine encounters against the Mariners in the Indian Super League (P9 W6 D2), with that loss coming in their most recent meeting. Mohun Bagan SG are one of only two sides the Islanders have scored against in every single meeting (also Punjab FC).
A duel between the two sides promises to be a high-octane encounter. The first meeting between them this season on 20 December 2023 saw a total of seven red cards handed out, the highest such tally in a single game in ISL history.
Players to Watch
Mohun Bagan Super Giant will be alert to the threat posed by Lallianzuala Chhangte, who has been in scintillating form of late. The talismanic winger has recorded 16 goal contributions (10 goals and 6 assists), the most by any Indian player this season and joint-highest by an Indian player in a single Indian Super League campaign (also Sunil Chettri in 2017-18 and Chhangte himself in 2022-23).
The 26-year-old comes into this final in a rich vein of form, finding the back of the net in each of his last five games, the longest such streak by any Indian player in ISL history. Chhangte has scored in three of his last four encounters against the Mariners as well, netting three goals in the process.
The quick-footed winger is one of the best at taking on opposition players in the league. He is great at generating space with a combination of body feints, skilled footwork and pace, allowing him to navigate tight spaces and create shooting opportunities. No player has recorded more take-ons followed by a shot than Chhangte (8) this season, while his tally of 13 take-ons in the opposition box is only bettered by Noah Sadaoui (14).
Kratky’s men will be attentive to the threat of influential Dimitri Petratos. The Australian has been a creative force for the Mariners, with only Brandon Fernandes (60) creating more chances than him (59) this season. Petratos’ creative genius has been the backbone of the Mariners scoring so many goals.
Crossing and set-pieces have been a big part of the 31-year-old’s creative repertoire. The weight and timing of his final deliveries have been perfect more often than not this season. No player has attempted more crosses than the Australian this season (167), while only Ahmed Jahouh (4) and Rafael Crivellaro (4) have picked up more assists via crosses.
The experienced forward has created 24 chances from set-play situations this season, the second-highest tally by any player in the competition this term behind Jahouh (28). The former Newcastle Jets man is excellent at getting the ball into dangerous territory, with no player recording more penalty-box entries than Petratos (217) this season.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City Prediction
With a chance to heal the wounds of the past, the stakes are high for this final and both teams will have to be at the top of their game to come out on top.
Will Mohun Bagan SG become the second side to win both the league shield and the cup in the same season after Mumbai City FC in 2020-21, or will Mumbai City avenge the title loss from earlier this season?
The Opta supercomputer gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 39.9% winning probability in regulation time, compared to Mumbai City FC’s 33.5%. There’s a 26.6% chance that, like each of the last two ISL finals, the teams will be level after 90 minutes, with the game heading to extra-time.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.