Does another Premier League title await for Pep Guardiola? We look ahead to Sunday’s clash with our Manchester City vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Manchester City vs West Ham Stats: The Quick Hits
- Manchester City are the overwhelming favourites to win this one and secure the Premier League title, triumphing in 75% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- City are the only side yet to lose a home Premier League match this season (W13 D5).
- This will be David Moyes’ 198th and final Premier League game in charge of West Ham – no permanent manager has a higher win rate for the Hammers in the competition.
Match Preview
Manchester City are on the brink of Premier League glory once again as a final-day victory over West Ham at Etihad Stadium on Sunday would mark a record-breaking feat in English history.
Pep Guardiola’s side have the chance to become the first team in top-flight history to win four English titles in a row, while it would be the sixth overall for the Spaniard – only behind Alex Ferguson’s 13 in the league’s history.
Man City sit two points clear of second-placed Arsenal in the league table after Tuesday’s potentially season-defining 2-0 away victory at Tottenham, where Erling Haaland’s deadly double did the damage in north London. Haaland tapped in from Kevin De Bruyne’s brilliant assist before slamming home a late penalty after Jérémy Doku was felled by a tired Pedro Porro.
That triumph over Ange Postecoglou’s side means City have an 84.1% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy on Sunday, according to the Opta supercomputer’s season predictions. Mikel Arteta’s side have just a 15.9% likelihood of pipping City to the title, needing to overcome Everton at home and hope David Moyes’ side draw – or win – in Manchester.
With the title already wrapped up last season, Guardiola’s team were 1-0 losers at Brentford on the last day but they’ve not lost their final league game in consecutive campaigns since a run of three between 2005-06 and 2007-08. City had won their final league game in each of Guardiola’s first six seasons in charge before the Bees defeat.
Ilkay Gündogan was the hero after inspiring City past Aston Villa on the last day of the 2021-22 title-winning campaign, though that mantle may be passed over to De Bruyne this time around. The Belgian maestro has six assists in Premier League final games – it’s the most of any current player, with only Nolberto Solano providing more in the competition’s history (7).
De Bruyne’s assist for Haaland against Spurs on Tuesday also took him to 112 in the Premier League, with only former Manchester United winger Ryan Giggs managing more in the history of the competition (162). The City midfielder will hope to brush off an ankle knock sustained at Tottenham to feature against West Ham.
First-choice goalkeeper Ederson will be the only other absentee for Sunday’s hosts after his head injury in a collision with Cristian Romero. His second-half removal paved the way for substitute Stefan Ortega to star, denying a gilt-edged Son Heung-min opportunity with the score at 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Ortega’s potentially title-winning heroics in the second half will at least be rewarded with a final-day appearance, and a start in the FA Cup final against rivals Man Utd next weekend at Wembley, though he likely would have played in that game regardless of Ederson’s fitness.
As for Moyes’ team news, West Ham will hope to reintroduce Nayef Aguerd and Konstantinos Mavropanos to their squad for the last kick-off of the league term. Kalvin Phillips remains out with a calf strain but would be unable to feature against his parent club either way.
West Ham were 3-1 winners against Luton Town in their last outing at London Stadium after a second-half response to Albert Sambi Lokonga’s early opener. James Ward-Prowse, Tomás Soucek and George Earthy were all on target, with the Hammers guaranteed a ninth-place finish this campaign.
However, the visitors have lost their final league game in each of the last two seasons, last doing so in three in a row between 2013-14 and 2015-16. That will not be the send-off Moyes hopes for as he prepares to depart the Hammers after his six-year spell at the club.
Indeed, this will be Moyes’ 198th and final Premier League game in charge of the club – no permanent manager has a higher win rate for West Ham in the competition than the Scotsman (37.1%, same as Alan Curbishley).
Manchester City vs West Ham Head-to-Head
Doku, Bernardo Silva and Haaland all found the net as Guardiola’s side triumphed 3-1 earlier in the season at West Ham, whose opener from Ward-Prowse mattered for little.
That victory in September means City are unbeaten in their last 16 Premier League games against West Ham (W13 D3), since a 2-1 home loss in September 2015.
West Ham have also lost 15 of their 17 Premier League away games against City, with the exceptions being a 1-1 draw (January 2008) and a 2-1 win (September 2015).
The Hammers have conceded at least once in all 17 of their Premier League games at the Etihad– only Tottenham have played at a specific venue more in the competition without ever keeping a clean sheet (18 at Emirates Stadium).
Recent Form
A remarkable record at the Etihad could prove the difference in the title race, with City the only side unbeaten through their first 17 games of this Premier League season at home (W13 D5).
Guardiola has only gone a full top-flight season unbeaten at home once before, with Barcelona in 2009-10, while City are looking to remain undefeated on home turf in a top-flight season for a fourth time – along with 1904-05, 1920-21 and 2011-12.
That run appears a strong contender to extend here, too, considering West Ham have lost 5-2 at Crystal Palace and 5-0 at Chelsea in their last two Premier League away games.
The last team to concede 5+ goals in three consecutive top-flight away games was Blackburn Rovers (April-August 1965), while West Ham last did so in April 1932.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Manchester City vs West Ham Prediction
Look away Arsenal fans… Man City have a massive 75% chance of defeating West Ham, as per the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Moyes has just a meagre 8.3% chance of ending his West Ham tenure with victory, while the draw – which could help Arsenal to the title – is forecast in 16.7% of data-led sims.
City’s title chances ranked at 58.7% before the Tottenham victory in Opta’s end-of-season predictions, though that has now shot up to 84.1% heading into this final day.
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