With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.


The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.

We have a three-way title race, with defending champions Manchester City the team to beat, and Arsenal and Liverpool pushing them until the end. Meanwhile, almost half the division started the campaign with realistic hopes of European qualification.

There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.

Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer has been making its match picks for every fixture over the course of a hugely exciting season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.

Matchweek 33

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of a full weekend of Premier League football.

Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the league table. There’s now just one point separating the top three teams in the standings, while Tottenham and Aston Villa are locked together on 60 points in the battle for fourth.

The system enjoyed a strong round with its picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham all emerged triumphant. However, Chelsea’s surprise draw away to Sheffield United ensured it was not a perfect slate of match predictions.

Matchday 33 will see six fixtures take place on Saturday, with champions Man City among the teams in action as they play at home against Luton Town. There is further title race interest among the three games on Sunday, with Liverpool hosting Crystal Palace and leaders Arsenal taking on Aston Villa, while a match between Chelsea and Everton on Monday will round off the action.

Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

Premier League Predictions Matchweek 33: The Quick Hits

  • Arsenal are favourites to defeat Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium, although they have the toughest path to victory among the three title contenders this week.
  • The Opta supercomputer strongly backs Liverpool and Man City to keep their respective title bids on track by recording wins in MD 33, with Pep Guardiola’s men the most confident prediction of the week.
  • Man Utd are given the edge over Bournemouth in a matchweek where they will look to close the gap on Aston Villa and Tottenham, who have both tough fixtures as their pursuit of a top-four finish continues.

There could be an explosive start to the matchweek as Newcastle United take on Tottenham at St James’ Park, with two of the most entertaining Premier League teams to watch in 2023-24 doing battle in the Saturday early game. The Opta prediction model can barely split the two teams, with Newcastle given the slightest advantage (36.4% to 36.2%) over Spurs, with the draw a threat at 27.4%.

Newcastle won this fixture 6-1 last season and come into this clash as one of just two teams to have scored in every one of their Premier League home games this campaign.

Newcastle 6-1 Tottenham xG race

You’d expect goals to be on the cards, as with 65 scored and 52 conceded, Newcastle’s Premier League games have seen more goals in them (117) than any other side’s games this season.

Spurs’ contests have been pretty dramatic too – with 65 scored and 45 conceded, they rank joint-fourth in the same category (110).

Premier League Match Predictions - MD 33

Brentford are only four points clear of the drop zone before their pivotal clash at home to another struggling side in Sheffield United. The Bees are winless in their last nine Premier League matches and have lost their last three league meetings with the Blades, including a 1-0 setback in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

But Brentford’s frustrations will soon be behind them according to the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a significant 63.4% chance of victory. Sheffield United, bottom of the table with just 16 points, are seen as highly unlikely victors at just 13.8%.

Time is running out for Burnley in their battle against relegation as they face Brighton at Turf Moor.

Brighton have been somewhat out of sorts this year. In 2024, the Seagulls have failed to score in six of their 12 Premier League games, giving them more goalless outings than any other side.

But they have avoided defeat in six of their last seven top-flight meetings with Burnley and the visitors are given a strong edge here with a win probability of 44.7%. With the hosts’ rating down at 26.6%, Burnley will need to upset the odds if they are to keep their slim survival hopes alive.

With a win probability of 85.2%, Man City are overwhelmingly backed to triumph this week as Pep Guardiola’s men host Luton a few days after their thrilling UEFA Champions League clash with Real Madrid. Luton’s chance of victory is a miserable 4.1%.

Man City continue to be formidable at home, unbeaten in their last 40 games at the Etihad Stadium in all competitions (W34 D6), now just two short of their all-time club record of 42 set more than a century ago between December 1919 and November 1921.

Luton were competitive in the reverse fixture, losing just 2-1, but more recently they were thumped 6-2 by City in a February FA Cup game which saw Erling Haaland score five times.

But it is another Man City goalscoring threat who is nearing a key milestone in this one. Phil Foden has scored nine goals in his last nine Premier League games and his next goal will be his 50th in the competition. If he achieves this against Luton, he would become the second-youngest player to hit the mark for Man City aged 23 years and 321 days, after Haaland set the record earlier this season.

Nottingham Forest (37.6%) remain in a precarious position in the Premier League table ahead of their contest at home to Wolves (32.8%), with Nuno Espírito Santo in need of a victory over his former club. A close contest is expected, with a draw (29.6%) more likely in this match than it is across any of the 10 matches this weekend.

Wolves are winless in their last three Premier League games (D1 L2), their joint-longest run without a victory so far this season, and while Forest defeated Fulham last time out at the City Ground, they have not won consecutive home matches since August last year.

Nuno is likely to need a big performance from Chris Wood, who has scored 12 Premier League goals for Forest this season, two short of his career-best total (14 with Burnley in the 2019-20 season). Only against West Ham (7) has Wood scored more Premier League goals than he has against Wolves (6), with his first-ever hat-trick in the competition coming against them in 2021.

Chris Wood Premier League xG map

A top-six finish for Manchester United might start to come under threat unless they can produce a positive result in their match away to Bournemouth in the Saturday early evening fixture.

The Cherries stunned Man Utd with a 3-0 win at Old Trafford in December and Erik ten Hag knows his side must start holding onto leads if they are to avoid falling to Andoni Iraola’s men again. United have dropped 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their most ever in a single campaign. They have been on the brink of victory in each of their last three games against Brentford, Chelsea and Liverpool, but emerged from those contests with only two points.

The system does not believe a streak like that is likely to continue. While our predictive model does not like the chances of many away teams this week, at 47.3% it has given Man Utd the highest rating of any away side in MD 33, with Bournemouth’s win probability a distant 25.3%.

Into Sunday’s matches, and Liverpool should not expect many problems as they prepare to welcome Crystal Palace to Anfield. The Reds are strongly backed with a 67.6% win probability, while Palace are way down at 11.5%.

Liverpool have been dominant in this fixture over recent years, with 11 wins and two draws in the last 13 Premier League meetings with Palace.

The hosts are unbeaten in each of their last 28 Premier League games at Anfield, winning 22 and drawing six, although they were stunned 3-0 by Atalanta in the Europa League last night. What’s more, they’ve gone without a clean sheet in the most recent eight of those league clashes, offering Palace a glimmer of hope.

But Oliver Glasner has gone five matches without a win, a run that looks unlikely to end here as his side drift closer towards trouble.

West Ham (44.0%) will host Fulham (27.9%) in a key London derby with David Moyes’ men still hopeful of reaching a European spot. The Hammers are unbeaten in their last 12 home top-flight contests with Fulham and are looking to avenge a miserable 5-0 loss at Craven Cottage in December.

To do that they will have to find a way to stop Rodrigo Muniz, who with eight league goals since the start of February is second only to Foden (nine) among Premier League players in that period. With home advantage it is West Ham who go into this contest as favorites, although the draw is a live threat at 28.1%.

Arsenal versus Aston Villa looks like the game of the week, as two of the division’s top five teams meet in what could prove to be a vital clash at the Emirates Stadium.

Villa are eyeing just their third Premier League double over Arsenal after claiming a narrow win at Villa Park earlier in the campaign. They come into the game having enjoyed their recent trips to London too, going unbeaten in their last nine visits to the capital, with six victories.

But Arsenal have won 10 and drawn one of their last 11 Premier League matches, conceding just four times in that span. And in attack they have Kai Havertz in fine form – the Germany forward has been involved in nine goals in his last seven Premier League appearances (5 goals, 4 assists). Overall, 2023-24 is already his most productive EPL campaign for both goals (9) and assists (5).

A win probability of 53.5% sees Arsenal go in as comfortable favourites, but that means there is still plenty for Villa to play for. They are given a 20.4% chance but would gladly emerge from the match with a draw, which is rated at 26.1%.

After their disappointing draw with Sheff Utd, there is pressure on Chelsea (51.1%) to get back on track as they take on Everton (21.7%) at Stamford Bridge on Monday.

The Opta supercomputer likes Chelsea’s chances and it is easy to see why – they are unbeaten in their last 28 Premier League home games against Everton since a 1-0 loss in November 1994. It’s their longest unbeaten home run against a side in their top-flight history.

Chelsea also have Cole Palmer in scintillating form. The England attacking midfielder has been involved in 25 goals in his last 22 Premier League games, scoring 16 and assisting nine.

One more assist would see him become the first Chelsea player to register double figures for both goals and assists in his first Premier League season with the club, but regardless of whether Palmer can come to the fore once more, a home victory is essential if Mauricio Pochettino is to keep his side’s faint European qualification hopes alive.


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