Two teams chasing European qualification face off in Saturday’s early Premier League kick-off. We look ahead to the game with our Newcastle United vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Tottenham Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer cannot split Newcastle United and Tottenham for this, with both teams assigned a 36.4% chance of victory at St James’ Park.
- Newcastle’s Premier League games have contained a competition-high 117 goals this season (65 scored, 52 conceded). Spurs rank fourth by that measure with 110 (65 for, 45 against).
- One more assist for 2023-24 would make Son Heung-min just the sixth player to reach double figures for both goals and assists in three separate Premier League seasons, after Wayne Rooney, Mohamed Salah, Frank Lampard, Eric Cantona and Didier Drogba.
Match Preview
Matchday 32 was positive for Tottenham, who took advantage of draws for Aston Villa and Manchester United to seize control of the race for UEFA Champions League qualification. A 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest took them into the top four, and they still have a game in hand over Villa.
Spurs have the chance to consolidate their position when they open Saturday’s Premier League action, returning to the scene of their most humiliating defeat of recent years.
Spurs were thrashed 6-1 by Newcastle United in their final game under Cristian Stellini last April, finding themselves 5-0 down within 21 minutes as they were torn apart by the Magpies. Only Watford against Manchester City in September 2019 (18th minute) have ever found themselves five goals down earlier in a Premier League match.
Tottenham are a different beast under Ange Postecoglou, but with their next four fixtures pitting them against Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, and a clash with Manchester City still to be rearranged, they face a testing run at the business end of the campaign.
Postecoglou’s men did not have it all their own way against Nottingham Forest last Sunday, with only a glaring miss from Chris Wood – who blasted against the post when presented with a golden opportunity – keeping them level at 1-1. However, defenders Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro showed Spurs’ forwards how to finish after the break to guide them to a vital 3-1 win.
Tottenham had earlier gone ahead when Forest defender Murillo turned Timo Werner’s cross into his own net. They have now benefitted from more own goals (five) than any other team in the Premier League this season, one shy of their club record for a single campaign (six in 2021-22).
More chaotic defending could be on the cards when two of the Premier League’s most entertaining sides do battle. After all, Newcastle’s 31 games in 2023-24 have produced a league-high 117 goals (65 scored, 52 against), while Spurs rank fourth by that same measure with 110 (65 scored, 45 conceded).
Captain Son Heung-min has certainly played his part in making Postecoglou’s men an absorbing watch, recording 24 goal involvements in his last 25 Premier League appearances (15 goals, nine assists).
One more assist for the season would make him just the sixth player to reach double figures for both goals and assists in three separate Premier League campaigns after Wayne Rooney (five seasons), Mohamed Salah, Frank Lampard, Eric Cantona (all four) and Didier Drogba (three).
Postecoglou is hoping to have Richarlison available after a knee problem kept him out of the Forest game, while Manor Solomon and Ryan Sessegnon are long-term absentees.
Newcastle were targeting Champions League qualification at the start of the season, but now 13 points back from Spurs in eighth, their sights are set on UEFA Europa League football.
Eddie Howe’s men made it three games unbeaten with last week’s hard-fought win over Fulham, leaving the Magpies within two points of the top six after Bruno Guimarães hit the only goal at Craven Cottage.
Newcastle’s clean sheet was their ninth in the Premier League this season, with only leaders Arsenal (14) keeping more.
However, when the Magpies do concede, the floodgates tend to open; they are averaging 1.7 goals conceded per Premier League game this season, having only averaged 0.9 per match last campaign.
Howe’s side remain a force to be reckoned with in attack, though, particularly at St James’ Park. Along with Saturday’s opponents, they are one of two teams to have scored in all their home Premier League games this season, with their current 16-match scoring streak on Tyneside their longest in the competition since an 18-game run between September 2002 and August 2003.
Alexander Isak, who scored twice in this fixture last season, has played a major role on that front, scoring in each of his last five league games at St James’ (six goals in total). The last Newcastle player to net in more successive home league matches was Alan Shearer, who scored in his first 15 upon joining the club from Blackburn Rovers in 1996-97.
With midfielders Lewis Miley, Joelinton and Joe Willock featuring on their lengthy injury list, Newcastle will be desperate for Guimarães to avoid a 10th yellow card of the season this weekend, the final matchday where he could land a two-match ban.
The stats suggest Guimarães is more sinned against than sinner, though – he has been fouled 88 times in the Premier League this campaign, more than any other player in the competition.
Newcastle vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Newcastle’s 6-1 rout of Spurs last April came after they had failed to win this fixture in five straight seasons (one draw, four defeats).
They could now win consecutive home league games against Tottenham for the first time since they reeled off four straight wins against them between April 2006 and December 2008.
Tottenham do tend to find the net when they visit Tyneside, scoring on each of their last 17 Premier League trips to Newcastle. It is their longest scoring run on the road against a specific opponent in their league history.
Recent Form
Having won four of their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (two draws), Tottenham have only managed two victories in their last nine, drawing four and losing three.
They have only taken one point from their last two away games, a 1-1 draw with West Ham and a 3-0 defeat to Fulham, though they were 4-0 victors against Aston Villa when they last travelled outside London in early March.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five home league games, though Luton Town (4-4), Bournemouth (2-2) and Everton (1-1) have all earned draws at St James’ during that run.
A late penalty from Dominic Calvert-Lewin pegged Newcastle back on their last home outing, and the Magpies have dropped 13 points from winning positions on their own turf in the Premier League this season. Only Brentford (14) have dropped more.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at St James’ Park, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Newcastle vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer simply cannot call Saturday’s early kick-off.
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, both Newcastle and Tottenham were victorious in 36.4% of scenarios apiece, with the chances of a draw rated at 27.2%.
Given their daunting fixture list, a victory for Tottenham would be massive prior to top-four rivals Aston Villa visiting Arsenal on Sunday. Ahead of this weekend’s games, the supercomputer gives Spurs a 62.6% chance of finishing fourth, with Villa doing so in 36.3% of projections.
Newcastle are also favoured for European qualification, finishing seventh in a league-high 33.3% of season simulations and sixth in 30%. Eighth could even be enough for continental football, depending on England’s UEFA coefficient, and the Magpies only finish ninth or lower in 14% of scenarios.
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