Goodison Park plays host to something of a relegation six-pointer on Saturday. Look ahead with our Everton vs Burnley prediction and preview.
Everton vs Burnley Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer rates Everton as favourites here, with the Toffees winning 43.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- Burnley haven’t lost any of their previous four Premier League games. Before this run, they last avoided defeat in back-to-back top-flight matches in April 2022.
- Everton are winless in 13 Premier League matches. Only once in their league history (14 in 1937) have they gone more games without a win.
Match Preview
Burnley won’t have many better opportunities to breathe life into their Premier League survival bid than on Saturday, when they go to fellow relegation battlers Everton.
The Clarets’ prospects have improved slightly over the past month, going four games unbeaten in the Premier League. Considering Everton’s own proximity to the bottom three, this contest could cause a real stir.
While Burnley go into the match six points from safety, Everton have only a four-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone after going on a wretched run of form – although they do also have a game in hand. Nevertheless, it wasn’t so long ago that they seemed to have nearly seen off the threat of the drop despite a six-point deduction; now, they’re looking over their shoulder again.
Everton are winless in 13 Premier League games following their 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on Tuesday, which leaves them precariously close to setting a new club record. Only once in their entire league history have they gone more matches without recording a victory, going 14 winless in a run that ended in September 1937.
Failure to beat manager Sean Dyche’s former team Burnley on Saturday will equal that record, and at this crucial period of the season, it would hardly be a reassuring moment for fans concerned about going down.
Either way, Everton have already beaten Burnley twice in all competitions this season and their home form – three defeats from their last 10 at Goodison Park – is nowhere near as bad as their away form – five losses in their last eight on the road.
But Burnley are on the best run they’ve had all season, avoiding defeat in each of their last four Premier League matches; before that, they’d lost four on the bounce. They’ve held West Ham, Chelsea (both away) and Wolves to draws and also beaten Brentford at Turf Moor in the past month.
Some may feel it’s too little, too late to save their season, but victory at Goodison on Saturday could see belief and optimism increase significantly.
Vincent Kompany will still be without long-term absentees Aaron Ramsey, Nathan Redmond and Luca Koleosho, though Jordan Beyer and Ameen Al-Dakhil are nearing returns and Lorenz Assignon served his one-match suspension in midweek.
Dyche has no new fitness issues to consider, with only Lewis Dobbin, Arnaut Danjuma and Dele Alli unavailable for selection.
Everton vs Burnley Head-to-Head
Having already beaten his previous club Burnley earlier this season in the Premier League, Everton boss Dyche could become the second Toffees manager to complete a double over a former club in a Premier League season after Sam Allardyce in 2017-18 (against Newcastle).
If they achieve that, Everton will also do the league double over the Clarets for the first time since 2018-19, having won 2-0 in Lancashire earlier in the season.
Aside from that Premier League contest, these two sides also met in the EFL Cup this season, with Everton running out 3-0 winners. If they make it three from three on Saturday and manage to keep Burnley at bay again, it’ll be the first time they’ve beaten a team three times in a single campaign while keeping a clean sheet in each game since 1995-96 (vs Blackburn Rovers).
Burnley ought to pay particular attention to Dominic Calvert-Lewin. While this has been a difficult season for him, going 18 games without a goal before netting a penalty in midweek against Newcastle, he has scored three goals in his last five meetings with the Clarets.
The omens aren’t especially positive in general for Burnley. They’ve lost six of their last eight league away games at Goodison Park, previously winning there in March 2021.
Recent Form
Burnley haven’t lost any of their last four Premier League games; before this sequence, they’d not managed to go two top-flight matches without a defeat since April 2022.
But if they are going to come away from Saturday’s game with a positive result, they either need to tighten up defensively or be more clinical in front of goal. After all, they’ve conceded 30 away Premier League goals this season, their most in a single campaign since 2018-19, when they conceded 36 under Dyche. The Clarets have shipped two or more goals in their last six on the road, last having a longer such run in the competition in their first 11 away games in 2009-10.
In direct contrast to that, all nine of Everton’s home Premier League wins since the start of last season have been to nil. When conceding at least once, meanwhile, they’ve drawn five and lost 17 of their last 22 at Goodison Park since a 3-2 win over Crystal Palace in May 2022, so they’re hardly infallible.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at Goodison Park on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Everton vs Burnley Predicted Lineups
Everton vs Burnley Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Everton as the favourites for this match, with the Toffees emerging victorious in 43.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
However, that does mean the projection model considers there to be more than a 50% chance of Burnley taking at least a point away from Goodison Park.
Kompany’s men took all three points 27.3% of the time, with a draw the outcome in 29.6% of sims.
As mentioned before, this match could have a significant impact on the wider relegation battle; ahead of the weekend, Everton are deemed to be the least likely of the bottom five to go down, finding themselves relegated in just 3.4% of the latest season simulations.
Burnley fail to escape the drop in 95.6% of the 10,000 season simulations. A win here could provide a major boost for them, however, especially if results elsewhere go their way as well.
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