Who will win the Champions League in 2023-24? We check in with the Opta supercomputer to see its latest Champions League predictions.
29 April
With just four teams left in the UEFA Champions League, who does the Opta supercomputer fancy as the favourites to go all the way?
The Quick Hits
- Real Madrid, having knocked out holders Manchester City, are made the favourites to win the Champions League by the Opta supercomputer.
- However, it is Paris Saint-Germain who are the best bet to reach the final, at 36%.
- Borussia Dortmund, who take on PSG in the last four, are the team least likely to win the trophy.
Real Madrid
Let’s start off with the favourites. The 14-time European champions had to ride their luck against Man City in the quarter-finals, but they got over the line in the penalty shootout.
Carlo Ancelotti’s composure on the touchline transferred across to the pitch when it came to those penalties, despite Luka Modric missing his team’s first spot-kick.
Madrid now face Bayern Munich, who in spite of their Bundesliga troubles this season, are in with a shout of European glory under Thomas Tuchel, winner of the trophy with Chelsea back in 2021.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid is the most-played fixture in the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (26 games), with 24 of those coming in the knockout stages of the competition – also the most between two sides.
Los Blancos are given a 61% chance of making it into the final, and the model is backing them to go all the way with a 36.2% win probability to lift the trophy as it stands.
It was attack-v-defence for much of their quarter-final second leg against City, albeit Ancelotti’s team coped relatively well. Indeed, Madrid have scored the most goals from direct attacks (seven) in the Champions League this season. Furthermore, among sides to qualify from the group stage this term, only FC Copenhagen (38.9 metres) have a deeper average starting distance than Madrid (39.6m), highlighting how they’re perfectly comfortable trying to play on the counter.
Madrid are unbeaten in their last 10 games in the Champions League (W7 D3), all of which have been this season. Only once previously have they had a longer unbeaten run within a single campaign in the competition, going 11 without defeat in the 2016-17 edition (which they went on to win).
PSG
While Madrid are the team backed to go all the way most often by our predictor, it’s actually PSG who have the best chance of making the final, doing so in 63% of the 10,000 simulations.
Kylian Mbappe and Co. face Borussia Dortmund in the last four, and should they beat BVB, then their chances of overcoming either Madrid or Bayern are rated at 29.9%.
This is PSG’s fourth appearance in the Champions League semi-finals. They have lost all four games in their two previous two-legged ties (vs Milan in 1994-95 and Man City in 2020-21) at this stage, although they did beat RB Leipzig in a single match to reach the 2019-20 final.
And while our model fancies their chances at Signal Iduna Park, PSG do not have a great record there. In fact, they have never won an away match against BVB, losing once and drawing on two of their three visits, including a 1-1 stalemate in the group stage this season. Indeed, this is the first time two teams have tussled in the groups and semi-finals of the same campaign in the competition since Madrid went up against Dortmund in 2012-13.
If PSG are to get through, then Mbappe will surely be crucial. He has scored eight goals in this season’s Champions League, his joint-best return in a single campaign (also eight in 2020-21). The Frenchman is also just two goals away from becoming the ninth different player to score 50 Champions League goals – he’s scored a brace in his last two away games in the competition.
Bayern Munich
Tuchel might be on the way out, though some Bayern fans want that to change, and he has a chance to end his short tenure with silverware – but overcoming Madrid will be no simple task.
Bayern’s chances of making the final are 39%, though they are given just a 19.7% likelihood of winning the trophy, which would mark their only trophy success of the season. That Harry Kane curse, eh?
Their woes have little to do with the England striker, though. In Europe, Kane has been directly involved in 10 Champions League goals in as many games for Bayern (seven goals, three assists). Should he score or assist in this game, he would establish a new record for the most goal involvements by an English player in a single campaign in the competition (also 10 by David Beckham in 1998-99 and 2001-02, and Steven Gerrard in 2007-08).
Bayern might be underdogs, but the German heavyweights have only lost one of their last 24 home games in the Champions League (W20 D3) and are unbeaten in the last 15 (W12 D3) since losing 3-2 to PSG in April 2021 .
They are, however, winless in their last seven games against Madrid, losing six of those meetings (D1). In fact, this is Bayern’s longest winless run against an opponent in European competition.
This is the eighth time Bayern and Madrid have been drawn together in a semi-final in the European Cup/Champions League. After progressing from four of the first five between 1976 and 2012, Bayern have been eliminated in each of the last two (2013-14 and 2017-18).
Borussia Dortmund
Last and least – when it comes to their title chances anyway – are BVB.
They are deemed to have just a 14.2% chance of winning this season’s Champions League, while their likelihood of making the final is 37%.
Dortmund’s per-game average of 1.8 expected goals against is the highest of any team to progress from the Champions League group stage this season (18 xG against in 10 games). However, based on the quality of shots faced, Dortmund have conceded 10 fewer goals than expected in the tournament this term (8 conceded from 18 xG against – excluding own goals).
On top of that, BVB are unbeaten in their last 10 Champions League home games (W6 D4), their longest ever such run in the competition. It’s a sequence only three teams can better at the moment: Man City (31), Bayern (15) and Madrid (12).
BVB are playing in the Champions League semi-finals for the fourth time; they have reached the final on two of the three previous occasions (1996-97 and 2012-13), with their only elimination at this stage coming in 1997-98 against Madrid.
They have only won one of their six meetings with PSG in all competitions (D3 L2), though, beating them 2-1 in the first leg of the 2019-20 Champions League round of 16 before being eliminated 3-2 on aggregate.
15 April
Ahead of the second legs of the Champions League quarter-finals, we check in on the Opta supercomputer’s updated predictions.
The Quick Hits
- Despite their thrilling 3-3 draw in the first leg of their tie with Real Madrid, Manchester City are still considered the tournament favourites by the Opta supercomputer.
- After their first-leg win over Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona have leapt up to second favourites to claim European glory, with an 18% chance of going all the way.
- PSG have slumped from being considered one of the favourites, to now having just a 5% chance of ending their wait for the trophy.
Manchester City
Despite Federico Valverde’s late volley denying them a statement victory over Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu last Tuesday, City remain the Opta supercomputer’s Champions League favourites.
In last year’s semi-finals, City played out a 1-1 draw in the Spanish capital before blitzing Madrid at the Etihad Stadium, producing arguably their finest performance under Pep Guardiola in a 4-0 rout of the then-champions.
They are assigned a 64.9% chance of repeating the trick on Wednesday and reaching the last four. City have won each of their last three home games against Madrid, also beating Los Blancos 2-1 in 2020 and 4-3 in 2022.
An all-English matchup with Arsenal could await them if they complete the job, and City are given a 46.5% chance of overcoming either the Gunners or Bayern Munich to reach the final at Wembley Stadium. They defend their European crown – something only Madrid have done since the competition’s 1992 rebrand – in 31.1% of our tournament simulations.
Barcelona
The major winners to emerge from the first set of quarter-final fixtures were undoubtedly Barcelona. Raphinha’s brace and Andreas Christensen’s header guided them to a 3-2 win over Paris Saint-Germain in the French capital, putting them in the box seat as the tie heads back to Catalonia.
Prior to the first leg, Barça were given a 43% chance of making the semi-finals by the supercomputer and were fifth favourites to lift the trophy, doing so in just 9% of scenarios.
Now, however, they reach at least the last four in 76.5% of tournament simulations. They reach the final – which could require a semi-final win over domestic rivals Atlético Madrid – in 45.3% of scenarios.
Barça last lifted Europe’s premier club trophy in Xavi’s final game as a player with the club in 2015. They are our second favourites to do so in his final game as their head coach, with an 18.4% chance of winning the whole competition.
Real Madrid
Madrid may have failed to establish a first-leg lead in their blockbuster tie with City, but Carlo Ancelotti’s side can never be written off. City know that all too well, having seen a 5-3 aggregate lead evaporate in a matter of moments at the Bernabéu in the 2022 semi-finals.
Beating the champions at the Etihad, though, is a different prospect altogether, and Madrid only advance to the semi-finals in 35.1% of our tournament simulations.
Madrid have only progressed from two of their previous 10 Champions League knockout ties after failing to win the first leg at home, with both of those triumphs coming against Manchester United (in the 1999-2000 quarter-finals and the last 16 in 2012-13).
Should Madrid get through, they are assigned a 23.4% chance of reaching the final and a 15% chance of claiming their 15th European crown.
The fact Madrid are third favourites to win the tournament despite needing to go to the Etihad demonstrates their strength.
Arsenal
Having been considered as the favourites to overcome Bayern Munich in the first leg, Arsenal were offered a reminder of the Bundesliga giants’ experience at the highest level last week.
Harry Kane continued to haunt the Gunners, scoring his sixth goal in all competitions at the Emirates Stadium, while Serge Gnabry netted against his former club. Arsenal fought back to seal a 2-2 draw thanks to Leandro Trossard’s strike.
However, that draw in north London has now seen Arsenal’s likelihood of making the semi-finals drop to 48% – down over 10% from what it was before the first leg.
The Gunners have a 15.1% chance of reaching the final, not aided by the fact they will face either Man City or Real Madrid in the semis if they can get past Bayern. Their chances of winning their maiden European trophy are now 8.3%, down over five percentage points from this time last week.
Atlético Madrid
The big risers from last week, Atlético have gone from being the most unlikely quarter-finalist to win the Champions League, up to the fourth favourites.
Diego Simeone’s team now have an 8.7% chance of going all the way, following their 2-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund in the first leg. However, they have to go to Signal Iduna Park, where the atmosphere is sure to be electric.
That being said, Atléti still progress to the last four in 65.0% of our model’s simulations, while their 26.4% chance of making the final is actually the third-highest of any team left in the competition, after City and potential semi-final opponents Barça.
Bayern Munich
Bayern were finally dethroned as Bundesliga champions by Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend, but can find some comfort in their 52% chance of getting the better of Arsenal and reaching the semis of the Champions League.
However, like Arsenal, the uncertainty of their passage through to the final four coupled with either City or Madrid awaiting the victors next means Bayern reach the final in only 15% of the simulations that our supercomputer ran.
Thomas Tuchel is a Champions League-winning coach, of course, and that experience could be vital in the second leg against Arsenal.
And another positive for Bayern is that they have now surpassed Dortmund as Germany’s best hope for success – their 7.7% likelihood of winning the trophy is 2.7% greater than BVB’s.
PSG
Well, it has been some fall for PSG. This time last week, they were ranked as joint-second favourites to win the Champions League, along with Real Madrid.
Now, after a 3-2 home defeat to Barcelona, their chances of going all the way have dropped to just 5.8%.
They only have a 23.5% likelihood of turning matters around against Barcelona in the second leg, and even then, Luis Enrique’s team are only given a 13.8% chance of subsequently defeating either Atlético or Dortmund.
With Kylian Mbappé on board, there is always hope of course, but the Opta supercomputer does not particularly fancy them.
Borussia Dortmund
Speaking of Dortmund, that defeat to Atléti in the first leg was damaging for their chances. They are certainly not down and out, though, with Sébastien Haller’s late finish dragging them back to within one goal of Simeone’s side.
They have a 35% chance of turning it around on Tuesday and making it into the last four, and a 14.4% likelihood of then progressing to the final at Wembley in early June.
Their hopes of going all the way are rather slim, however, at just 5%.
8 April
The latter stages of the UEFA Champions League are upon us, but which clubs are backed as the favourites by the Opta supercomputer?
Who Will Win the Champions League? The Quick Hits
- Manchester City, who face Real Madrid in a gargantuan quarter-final, are made the favourites to go on and retain their crown, with a 28.3% probability of winning the competition.
- Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain are next in the list – though Los Blancos will surely be fancied the most should they overcome City.
- Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga title hopes are all but over, and the chances of Harry Kane finishing his first season in Germany without a trophy are high. The Bavarian giants are handed just a 6.2% likelihood of going all the way.
Manchester City
Should the suggestion of seeds for the next version of the Champions League – which is set to begin from next season – come to pass, then perhaps the two favourites would be prevented from meeting each other until the final. But in the current format, the draw has served up a mouthwatering clash between Man City and Real Madrid in the quarters.
Having faced Madrid in the semi-finals in both 2022 and 2023, City are looking to nudge into a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head record in this series.
And despite going up against the 14-time European champions, Pep Guardiola’s team are still backed to go on and win the trophy once again, with their 28.3% probability of becoming champions over 13% higher than any other team.
City are given a 60% chance of progressing to the semi-finals, and a 41.2% probability of making it to their third final in the space of four seasons.
Real Madrid
Slightly ahead of PSG as second favourites behind City are Real Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti’s European monolith are given a 15% chance of winning the Champions League in 2023-24.
Madrid have only been behind on the scoreboard for 26 minutes in the Champions League this season – the fewest of any side.
Vinícius Júnior is their man to fear. Since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, he’s been directly involved in more goals than any other player in the Champions League (27 – 14 goals, 13 assists).
In the same period, he also leads all players in the competition for completed dribbles (97) and progressive carries (373).
Jude Bellingham, meanwhile, has either scored (four) or assisted (four) in all six of his Champions League games for Real Madrid
Los Blancos have a 40% chance of overcoming City across their two-legged tie, while their chances of making the 2024 final are ranked at 23.8%.
Paris Saint-Germain
As a result of Real Madrid getting drawn against the holders, it is PSG who our model fancies as one of the next-best picks. The Parisians have a 14.7% likelihood of becoming champions of Europe, and were one of the biggest beneficiaries of getting drawn on the other side of the draw to the ‘big four’ back in March.
There’s a reunion with Luis Enrique’s former club Barcelona – who he led to Champions League glory in 2015 – on the cards in the last eight, and with Kylian Mbappé having netted four UCL goals against Barça (a tally bettered by only Thomas Müller and Andriy Shevchenko), PSG are well fancied (57%) to progress to a semi-final against either Atlético Madrid or Borussia Dortmund.
And with Atleti or Dortmund next up, should they make it past Barça, PSG have more than a one-in-three chance of reaching this season’s final (35.9%).
A word of warning, though. PSG, of course, suffered their heaviest defeat in the Champions League when they lost 6-1 to Barcelona at Camp Nou in 2017, when the Blaugrana, coached by Luis Enrique at the time, fought back from a 4-0 defeat in the first leg of a last-16 tie.
Arsenal
The Gunners might be leading the Premier League, but their chances of winning the Champions League are rated almost as half as likely as City’s, at 13.6%. It is Arsenal (185), that have played the most games in UCL history without winning the competition, don’t forget.
The Gunners face Bayern in the quarters, and of course that means Kane has the chance to do the damage against his old club’s former rivals. The England captain has scored 14 goals in 19 appearances against Arsenal. He has only scored more times against Leicester (20) and Everton (16) in his professional career.
Kane also has the joint-most goals by a visiting player at the Emirates Stadium (five), along with Diogo Jota and Jamie Vardy.
Mikel Arteta’s team are made big favourites to condemn Kane to another trophyless campaign, though, with our model giving them a 58.5% chance of progressing to the last four. Arsenal’s likelihood of making the final is 22.9%.
This will be Arsenal’s first game in the quarter-finals of the Champions League since 2009-10, when they lost 6-3 on aggregate against Guardiola’s Barcelona. Indeed, the Gunners have only progressed from two of their seven quarter-final ties in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League to date.
Barcelona
We’re into the single digits now, with Barcelona coming in as fifth favourites at 9%.
They are given a 43% chance of making it past PSG, but then a 24.6% chance of making it to the final. Again, a relatively favourable draw plays a part in that, given they have avoided either Man City or Real Madrid.
Barcelona’s meeting with PSG is their first Champions League quarter-final tie since August 2020, when they went down 8-2 to Bayern in what was their heaviest ever defeat in European competition.
They’ve only progressed from the last eight in one of their last five attempts (2018-19, vs Manchester United).
Borussia Dortmund
BVB got the better of PSV in the last round, and having got the better of Bayern at the end of March, Edin Terzić’s team are Germany’s big hope for European success according to the Opta supercomputer.
Perhaps surprisingly given Atlético’s European pedigree under Diego Simeone, Dortmund are made favourites to make it through that tie, at 56.3%.
They are given a 23.3% likelihood of then beating their semi-final opponents and making it into the final, though their chances of winning the showpiece match are ranked at a lowly 8.3%.
Dortmund have only won one of their last 10 away games in the knockout stages of the Champions League, suffering defeats in eight of those (D1). Their last away win at the quarter-final stage of the competition was in March 1997 (1-0 vs Auxerre), going winless in their last five quarter-finals played on the road (D2 L3).
Bayern Munich
Make no bones about it, despite Kane’s record-breaking campaign, it has been a miserable season for Bayern. Thomas Tuchel will be desperate to salvage something by dragging his team to European glory before heading off into the sunset.
But it seems unlikely, and our model does not give Bayern much hope. Indeed, the supercomputer rates their chances of going all the way at just 6.2%. That’s quite something given they have the world’s best centre-forward leading their line.
Going up against Arsenal will be no easy challenge. Should Bayern get the better of the Gunners – which they have a 41.5% chance of doing – they are then given just a 12.1% likelihood of overcoming either Man City or Real Madrid.
Atlético Madrid
Last on this list – but perhaps that’s where Simeone would want them to be? – are Atlético Madrid.
Fourth in La Liga, Atleti defeated last season’s runners-up, and runaway Serie A leaders Inter, in the last 16. Despite that, they remain our least likely winners.
They may well get the better of Dortmund, with a 43.7% chance of doing just that, but Simeone’s team, who have twice finished as runners-up in the Champions League in the last decade, are then handed just a 16.2% likelihood of progressing to the final.
Their current chances of winning the UEFA Champions League? Just 5%.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each position to create our final predictions.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.