Having maintained their title challenge with a comfortable midweek win over Luton Town, Mikel Arteta’s men now face a tricky trip to the south coast. We look ahead to Saturday’s game with our Brighton vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Brighton vs Arsenal: The Quick Hits
- Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal beat Brighton and Hove Albion in 45.2% of scenarios, losing in 26.9%.
- The Gunners have not trailed for a single minute in any of their five away Premier League games in 2024, conceding just one goal and facing only five shots on target in those matches.
- David Raya could become the first Spanish goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet in five straight away Premier League starts and just the ninth shot-stopper to do so overall.
Match Preview
Ten games unbeaten in the Premier League after Wednesday’s 2-0 win over Luton Town, Arsenal are going great guns as the title race approaches its climax. However, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners face a tougher run-in than Liverpool or Manchester City, according to the Opta Power Rankings, and Saturday’s visit to Brighton represents a potential banana skin.
Arsenal never looked like being troubled once Martin Ødegaard fired them ahead in midweek, and it was effectively game over on the stroke of half-time when Luton defender Daiki Hashioka turned Emile Smith Rowe’s cutback home. Arteta was able to rest several of his star names at the Emirates Stadium, with Declan Rice, Gabriel Martinelli and Jorginho limited to substitute roles while Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus were not risked at all.
With Arsenal’s relentless goalscoring form slowing in recent weeks, their solid backline has come to the fore, with Luton limited to just one shot on target in north London. The Gunners have been at their miserly best on the road lately – they have not trailed for a single minute in any of their five away Premier League games in 2024.
The Gunners have also conceded the fewest goals (one), recorded the lowest expected goals against (2.26 xGA) and faced the fewest shots on target (five) of any Premier League team on the road this year.
It’s fair to say David Raya has been well protected between the sticks, with Ederson (8.01) the only goalkeeper to face fewer shots per 90 minutes than his 8.08 in the Premier League this season (minimum five starts).
On Saturday, Raya could become the first Spanish goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet in five straight away starts in the Premier League and just the ninth shot-stopper to do so overall, with Ederson the last between February and April 2022.
Only once in their league history, meanwhile, have the Gunners kept five consecutive away clean sheets, doing so between February and April 1997. However, they went on to finish third in the Premier League that season, a fate they are desperate to avoid this term.
Arsenal’s title charge has not been built solely on a solid rearguard, though, with captain Ødegaard leading from the front with his seventh Premier League goal of 2023-24 in midweek. The Norwegian has a knack for hurting Brighton, recording four goal involvements in his six Premier League appearances against them (two goals, two assists).
A run of one win in five league games has seen the Seagulls’ European push stall in recent weeks, with Wednesday’s goalless draw at Brentford their latest frustrating result.
Roberto De Zerbi’s men were exasperated by Andy Madley’s failure to award a penalty following a coming-together between Lewis Dunk and Yoane Wissa in first-half stoppage time, while their 24 shots was the most they’ve ever recorded in a Premier League match they’ve failed to score in.
Brighton’s failure to make the breakthrough was certainly not for a lack of effort, with Pascal Groß creating seven chances and completing 118 passes as De Zerbi’s team bossed possession. It was the second time he has created at least five chances and completed 100 passes in a Premier League match this term, becoming the first player to do so twice in a single campaign since Cesc Fàbregas in 2016-17.
With Kaoru Mitoma and Billy Gilmour still out injured, Groß’s creativity may have to come to the fore again on Saturday, while Brighton were boosted by the return of leading goalscorer João Pedro on Wednesday. The Brazilian has 19 goals across all competitions this term, putting him comfortably clear of Brighton’s next-most prolific player Simon Adingra, who has seven.
Having netted in last week’s 2-1 loss to Liverpool, fellow forward Danny Welbeck will be looking to dent the title aspirations of his former club here. The ex-Gunner has scored on four of his last five starts against Arsenal in all competitions, though each of his last three goals against them have come at the Emirates Stadium.
Brighton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Goals from Jesus and Kai Havertz handed Arsenal a 2-0 win in December’s reverse fixture, meaning they now have the chance to secure just their second Premier League double over Brighton, previously beating them home and away in 2020-21.
However, Arsenal will be wary of the threat posed by the Seagulls after De Zerbi’s side stormed to a memorable 3-0 win at the Emirates last May, a result that all but ended the Gunners’ title hopes.
Brighton have struggled at home to Arsenal lately, though. After winning two of their first three Premier League games against the Gunners at the Amex Stadium (one draw), they have since lost two of their last three (one draw).
Arsenal have also lost on just one of their last nine trips to the south coast in the Premier League (six wins, two defeats), losing 1-0 at Southampton in April 2022.
Brighton, however, have lost just one of their last eight home league games against London teams (five wins, two draws), winning each of their last three against Brentford (2-1), Tottenham (4-2) and Crystal Palace (4-1).
Recent Form
Though they have struggled for consistency on the road, Brighton are currently enjoying their longest ever unbeaten run at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League, going 12 without defeat at home since losing 3-1 to West Ham in August (six wins, six draws).
Arsenal, however, are unbeaten in five away Premier League games, winning four in a row before last week’s stalemate with Man City. Prior to meeting Pep Guardiola’s men, they scored 17 goals without reply on trips to West Ham (6-0), Burnley (5-0) and Sheffield United (6-0).
Saturday’s late kick-off time, meanwhile, may not be a great omen for either side.
Brighton have only won three of their 18 previous Premier League games starting at 17:30 on a Saturday (seven draws, eight losses), though they did win their last such fixture against Newcastle United last September (3-1).
Three of Arsenal’s last four away Premier League defeats have come in games taking place at that time, including losses at Aston Villa and Newcastle this campaign.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brighton vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction
Though the Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for Saturday’s game, Brighton are given a decent chance of denting their title aspirations.
Of 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal won 45.2%, with Brighton triumphing in 26.9% and 27.9% finishing level.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, Arsenal’s midweek win over Luton saw their title hopes rated at 21.4% ahead of this weekend, with the Reds (45.0%) and City (33.6%) still favoured over the Gunners.
Brighton, meanwhile, finish ninth in a league-high 20.3% of scenarios, with their chances of a top-seven finish now rated at just 15.4%.
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