Erik ten Hag is entering now-or-never territory as we look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Bournemouth vs Manchester United prediction and preview.

Bournemouth vs Manchester United Stats: The Quick Hits

  • The Opta supercomputer backs Manchester United to get revenge on Bournemouth, with the visitors winning 47.2% of pre-match simulations.
  • United have dropped 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their most ever in a single campaign.
  • Bournemouth have won their last three home games in the competition, but have never won four such matches in a row.

Match Preview

UEFA Champions League qualification appears somewhat of a distant hope for Manchester United as they prepare for their south-coast trip to face Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday.

Erik ten Hag’s side were once again off the pace last week but mustered a 2-2 draw with Premier League title contenders Liverpool at Old Trafford. Bruno Fernandes capitalised on a misplaced Jarell Quansah pass to restore parity after Luis Díaz’s opener, and Mohamed Salah’s late penalty cancelled out Kobbie Mainoo’s fine second-half curler in front of the Stretford End.

That battling draw with Jürgen Klopp’s side extended United’s winless run to three games, though they have been ahead in each of those matches. Despite taking the lead, United lost 4-3 to Chelsea in last-gasp chaos after also conceding a stoppage-time equaliser in a 1-1 draw at Brentford.

United have now dropped 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their most ever in a single campaign. A lack of leadership, experience or tactical failures may all be mooted as reasons by United supporters for their downfall, which has seen their Champions League qualification hopes diminish.

The Red Devils may have a game in hand on Aston Villa but sit 11 points behind Unai Emery’s fifth-placed side heading into the weekend’s action, while Tottenham are a position higher in the league table due to their favourable goal difference.

Despite coming into this round of games in sixth place in the Premier League table, only bottom side Sheffield United (560) have faced more shots than Man Utd this season (554), while Ten Hag’s men also have the third-highest expected goals against figure (58.2).

Ten Hag may attribute those statistics to injury issues, with Raphael Varane, Jonny Evans, Victor Lindelöf, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia all absent defensive options. The long list of absentees also includes Anthony Martial, though Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay are expected to be fit for Saturday’s kick-off.

As for the hosts, Bournemouth are 12th after a five-game undefeated streak came to an end in a 2-1 defeat at Luton Town. Marcus Tavernier opened the scoring at Kenilworth Road but Jordan Clark equalised before Carlton Morris delivered a 90th-minute winner for Rob Edwards’ relegation-threatened hosts.

Tavernier was on target in the 52nd minute on Matchday 32, which came as no surprise as just 31% of Bournemouth’s Premier League goals this season have been scored in the first half (14/45), the lowest share of any side in the 2023-24 campaign.

Indeed, the Cherries have scored just once in the opening 45 minutes in their last nine games, and in none of the last five. Bournemouth’s profligacy has clearly not inspired Ryan Christie, whose 33 shots without scoring are the most for a single player in the Premier League this season – ahead of United’s Antony (31).

Andoni Iraola will not care how the goals come for his south-coast club, however, as Bournemouth chase a top-half finish to cap a memorable campaign. They sit just three points behind ninth-placed Chelsea, albeit having played a game more than Mauricio Pochettino’s Blues.

In terms of team news for the hosts, Iraola will hope to welcome Tyler Adams, Chris Mepham and Antoine Semenyo back to his lineup. However, Tavernier’s hamstring injury means the Bournemouth midfielder will likely join Luis Sinisterra and Ryan Fredericks as long-term absentees.

Bournemouth vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

United have won four of their six Premier League away games against Bournemouth, losing the other two in December 2015 (2-1 loss) and November 2019 (1-0 defeat).

Ten Hag’s side were, however, shocked in a 3-0 home defeat to Iraola’s men in the reverse meeting at Old Trafford this term, as Dominic Solanke, Philip Billing and Marcos Senesi all scored in Manchester.

Man Utd v Bournemouth stats

After that eye-catching victory in December, Bournemouth are looking to complete their first league double over Man Utd in history – and Iraola will fancy his chances against Ten Hag’s consistent underperformers.

That trio of scorers in the 3-0 triumph will also hope to join Joshua King (in the 2019-20 season) as the only Bournemouth player to score both home and away against Man Utd in one Premier League campaign.

Recent Form

Bournemouth have won each of their last three Premier League home games, against Crystal Palace, Everton and Luton, but they’ve never won four in a row at home in the top flight before.

That dominant home form is in stark contrast to the travels of Man Utd, who have conceded in each of their last eight on the road, shipping 17 goals in total. Ten Hag’s side had previously managed four clean sheets and conceded just two goals in six away games prior.

Further illustrating the chaotic nature of the football under Ten Hag, United have gone behind, then taken the lead, before ultimately failing to win their last two league games against Chelsea and Liverpool. Only West Ham in April 2016 have ever done this in three consecutive games in the competition.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off at the Vitality Stadium this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Bournemouth vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups

Bournemouth predicted lineup v Man Utd
Man Utd predicted lineup v Bournemouth

Bournemouth vs Manchester United Prediction

The Opta supercomputer predicts an away win on Saturday as Man Utd triumphed in 47.2% of 10,000 pre-match simulations – despite Ten Hag’s men failing to win any of their last three league games.

Bournemouth managed a record-breaking fourth-straight home victory in 25.6% of sims, with the draw forecast at 27.2% in the same data-led predictions.

Ten Hag’s side are expected to stay in their current sixth-place position most often in 49.1% of Opta’s end-of-season simulations, while Bournemouth are forecast to finish 12th in 37.5% of them.

Bournemouth v Man Utd Opta predictor

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