Two European giants meet on Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League semi-final. We look ahead to the first leg with our Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid prediction and preview.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer backs Bayern Munich to win the first leg, with the hosts overcoming Real Madrid in 39.7% of pre-match simulations.
- Bayern are winless in their last seven games against Madrid, losing six of those meetings (D1).
- Harry Kane has 10 goals involvements in this season’s UEFA Champions League; one more here would mark the most by an English player in a single campaign.
Match Preview
After eliminating Premier League title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City in the last round, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid meet for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final on Tuesday at Allianz Arena.
This will be the eighth time Bayern and Madrid have met in a semi-final in the European Cup/Champions League. The Bundesliga side have been eliminated in each of the last two (2013-14 and 2017-18), after progressing from four of the first five between 1976 and 2012.
To reach this stage, Joshua Kimmich’s second-half header was enough to secure a 1-0 second-leg victory against Arsenal. The Bayern midfielder’s smart finish secured a 3-2 aggregate victory for Thomas Tuchel’s side in the last eight.
That result was somewhat more straightforward than Madrid’s progression, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side going through after a penalty shootout victory over last season’s champions Man City. Rodrygo opened the scoring at the Etihad Stadium before Kevin De Bruyne’s strike ensured spot-kicks were required after a 4-4 aggregate draw.
Jude Bellingham worked tirelessly in that battling triumph over Pep Guardiola’s side, averaging 1.2 high-intensity pressures per minute on the pitch (146 overall). That is the highest average by a player to record 90+ minutes in a game in this season’s competition.
The England midfielder will be expected to cover further ground on Tuesday, too, and leads the Champions League this season for high-intensity pressures (496). Bellingham also has four goals and as many assists in UEFA’s top club tournament this term.
Only Rodrygo can better Bellingham’s Champions League goal tally for Madrid, having scored five times in Europe this season as the Brazilian continues to shine in attack alongside international and club colleague Vinícius Júnior.
Neither started as Ancelotti rested his key players in Friday’s 1-0 victory over Real Sociedad. Arda Güler scored on his first league start for the La Liga leaders in that away success against La Real, while Éder Militão made an encouraging return from injury. First-choice goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba will be the only injury absentees in Bavaria, with Dani Carvajal suspended after his caution against Man City.
Aurélien Tchouaméni will be available once more after serving a suspension in the quarter-final second leg, though Ancelotti will be sweating over the fitness of Ferland Mendy, who missed the win against Real Sociedad as a precaution for a reported muscle strain.
As for the hosts, Bayern will remain without Kingsley Coman, Sacha Boey, Bouna Sarr and Tarek Buchmann. Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry were not risked on Saturday as a much-changed lineup overcame Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1.
Harry Kane provided the decisive double at Allianz Arena in that Bundesliga clash, with those two strikes taking him to 400 career goals for club and country, as well as a personal-best 42 in all competitions this season. The former Tottenham striker will have another record in sight come kick-off in midweek, too.
Kane has been directly involved in 10 goals in as many games in this season’s Champions League. Another here will mean he has recorded the most goal involvements by an English player in a single campaign in the competition, surpassing David Beckham (in 1998-99 and 2001-02) and Steven Gerrard (2007-08).
Regardless of whether Kane can power the Bundesliga giants to the Champions League final against either Paris Saint-Germain or Borussia Dortmund, Bayern manager Thomas Tuchel will be leaving at the end of the season. He will hope to do so on a high.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Stats Head-to-Head
This is the most played fixture in the history of the European Cup/Champions League (26 games), with 24 of those coming in the knockout stages of the competition – also the most between two sides.
Madrid have had the better of this encounter recently, though, going unbeaten in the last seven meetings and winning six of those (D1). This is Bayern’s longest winless run against an opponent in European competition.
Los Blancos have also won each of their last three away games against the Bavarian side (4-0 in 2013-14, 2-1 in 2016-17 and 2-1 in 2017-18), the longest-ever winning run away to Bayern in the European Cup/Champions League. No other team has ever won consecutive away games against Bayern in the competition.
Recent Form
Bayern have only lost one of their last 24 home games in the Champions League (W20 D3) and are unbeaten in the last 15 (W12 D3), since being beaten by Paris Saint-Germain in April 2021.
They failed to win the Bundesliga title for the first time in 12 years as the impressive Bayer Leverkusen powered to the club’s first top-flight trophy, though Bayern have won their last three games in all competitions.
Madrid are unbeaten in their 10 games in the Champions League (W7 D3) this season. Only once previously have they had a longer unbeaten run within a single campaign in the competition, going 11 without defeat en route to winning the 2016-17 edition.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Stats Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has Bayern Munich as the narrow favourites for the first leg, winning 39.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
That probability is ahead of Real Madrid’s 34.8% chance of victory, while a draw on Tuesday is ranked at 25.5%.
Madrid reach the final in 61% of Opta’s tournament predictions, ahead of Bayern’s 39%. Going further, Ancelotti’s men are the favourites to win the entire competition at 36%, with Bayern’s likelihood of lifting the trophy at 20%.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid UCL Squads
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Daniel Peretz, Sven Ulreich, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Matthijs de Ligt, Eric Dier, Bouna Sarr, Raphaël Guerreiro, Sacha Boey, Tarek Buchmann, Noussair Mazraoui, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Leroy Sané, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Alphonso Davies, Konrad Laimer, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Bryan Zaragoza, Thomas Müller, Mathys Tel.
Head Coach: Thomas Tuchel
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Kepa, Andriy Lunin, Lucas Cañizares, Diego Piñeiro, David Alaba, Nacho, Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Éder Militão, Fran García, Álvaro Carrillo, Vinícius Tobias, Jacobo Ramón, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Lucas Vázquez, Dani Ceballos, Brahim Díaz, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, Nico Paz, Mario Martín, Joselu, Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Gonzalo García.
Head Coach: Carlo Ancelotti
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