Barcelona have a slender lead to defend at home as they bid to reach the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. We look ahead to Tuesday’s game with our Barcelona vs PSG prediction and preview.

Barcelona vs PSG Stats: The Quick Hits

  • Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer ahead of Tuesday’s second-leg clash, Barcelona beat PSG (33%) in 41.6% of scenarios.
  • Barcelona are hoping to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the 13th time overall, and the first time since 2018-19. Only Real Madrid (16) have done so more often.
  • Kylian Mbappé has scored 13 goals in 11 away knockout games in the Champions League. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (23 goals in 39 games) and Karim Benzema (14 in 34) have more.

Match Preview

Barcelona last lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy to cap Xavi’s final game as a player with the club, as a team spearheaded by the attacking trident of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and Neymar beat Juventus in the 2014-15 final. As Xavi the head coach prepares to depart in the summer, European glory is again his aim, and Barcelona have one foot in the semi-finals after last week’s 3-2 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in France.

Ahead of this week’s quarter-final second legs, the Opta supercomputer makes Barcelona second favourites to win the tournament, their 17.8% chance of glory putting them behind only Manchester City (30.2%). No team is viewed as more likely to reach the last four than the Blaugrana, who successfully defend their first-leg advantage in 76.3% of our tournament simulations.

Following an impressive first half, Barca found themselves 2-1 down early in the second period at the Parc des Princes, courtesy of quickfire goals from Ousmane Dembélé and Vitinha. However, Raphinha got his second goal following a delightful pass from substitute Pedri, before Andreas Christensen’s header put Xavi’s men in the ascendency.

PSG 2-3 Barcelona Stats - xG race chart

They are now looking to complete the job at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys and reach the Champions League semi-finals for the 13th time, having last done so in 2018-19. Ahead of the quarter-final second legs, only Real Madrid (16 times) have reached the last four more often, with Bayern Munich currently level with the Blaugrana.

It’s not in Barca’s nature to sit back on their slender lead, and they will hope the creativity of Ilkay Gündogan helps them kill the tie. The Germany star – who captained City to the trophy last term – has created the most chances (24) of any player in the Champions League this season, also leading the way for expected assists (3.7 xA) and teeing up four goals. The last Barca midfielder to create more chances in a single European campaign? His current boss Xavi, with 33 in 2012-13.

Gündogan was among the senior players rested for Saturday’s trip to Cádiz in LaLiga, with João Félix’s overhead kick guiding a much-changed Barca side to a 1-0 victory. Christensen and Sergi Roberto were part of that lineup, with first-leg bookings leaving them suspended for Tuesday’s match.

Seventeen-year-old centre-back Pau Cubarsí also started as Barca kept their 14th clean sheet in La Liga this season, and he has not looked overawed by playing in the Champions League. Cubarsí made more line-breaking passes than any other Barca player in the first leg (13), with Arsenal’s William Saliba (32) the only player to better his total of 27 since his Champions League debut on 12 March.

Barca produced arguably the greatest European fightback of all time against PSG in 2017, overturning a 4-0 first-leg deficit with a 6-1 win in a game remembered as ‘la Remontada’ (the comeback). The Blaugrana will know this tie is far from over, then, particularly given PSG’s firepower.

Barcelona 6-1 PSG xg race

Luis Enrique – the architect of that famous victory – is looking to become the first former Barcelona boss to eliminate them from a Champions League knockout tie. Only two Spanish coaches have previously beaten the Catalan giants in a knockout tie – Liverpool’s Rafael Benítez in 2006-07 (last 16) and Real Madrid’s Vicente del Bosque in 2001-02 (semi-finals).

PSG dominated possession for long spells in France, but they will need far more penetration if they are to turn things around on Tuesday. Neither Kylian Mbappé nor Dembélé were at their devastating best last week, completing just two of 14 attempted dribbles between them (Mbappé 1/6, Dembélé 1/8). Overall, PSG completed only 39% of their dribbles (11/28) – their lowest in a Champions League knockout game since March 2017 – also against Barca (33%).

Mbappé – who looks destined to join Barca’s arch-rivals Madrid this summer – will be desperate to atone here, and he has an exceptional record on his travels in Europe. He has scored 13 goals in 11 away games in the Champions League knockout stages, with only Cristiano Ronaldo (23 in 39 matches) and Karim Benzema (14 in 34) netting more.

Silky midfielder Vitinha will also have a key role to play for the visitors; in the first leg, he became the first player to have over 100 touches (101), misplace no more than two passes (82/84 completed), and score in a Champions League knockout game since Xavi did so for Barca against Celtic in 2008 (one goal, 110 touches and 89/91 passes completed).

PSG – who hold a 10-point lead at the Ligue 1 summit – were not in domestic action last weekend, allowing Luis Enrique to focus purely on Tuesday’s game. The visitors have no new selection issues, with Presnel Kimpembe, Layvin Kurzawa and Nordi Mukiele still sidelined.

UEFA Champions League Predictions Opta

Barcelona vs PSG Head-to-Head

If previous meetings between these teams are anything to go by, neutrals should expect plenty of entertainment on Tuesday.

Christensen’s first-leg winner was the 50th goal scored in 14 competitive meetings between Barcelona and PSG, with those contests featuring an average of 3.6 goals per game.

Among all teams Barca have faced at least 10 times in Europe, their fixtures with PSG have averaged more goals per game than those against any other club.

Barca have only lost two of their nine games against PSG in the Champions League knockout stages (four wins, three draws), and they are looking to win both legs of a tie against them for the second time, previously doing so in the 2014-15 quarter-finals.

However, Barca did lose their most recent home knockout game against PSG, being thrashed 4-1 in the first leg of a last-16 tie in February 2021. Before that match, the Blaugrana were unbeaten in five home Champions League matches against the Parisians (three wins, two draws).

Recent Form

Saturday’s victory over Cádiz was Barcelona’s sixth in a row across all competitions, with four of those wins coming to nil.

Overall, they are unbeaten in 13 matches (10 wins, three draws) since a dramatic 4-3 defeat to Villarreal in January, with Xavi announcing his departure in a press conference after that loss.

PSG, meanwhile, saw their own 27-match unbeaten run halted by last week’s loss, having won 19 and drawn eight of their games since a Champions League group-stage loss to AC Milan in November.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Barcelona vs PSG Predicted Lineups

Barcelona vs PSG Prediction

PSG are given around a one-in-three chance of claiming a victory and at least forcing extra-time on Tuesday.

Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, the visitors triumphed in 33%, with Barca winning 41.6% and holding out for a draw in 25.3%.

According to the supercomputer’s tournament predictions, PSG’s 23.5% chance of progressing to the semi-finals is the lowest of any team remaining in the competition. Their 5.8% chance of lifting the trophy is the second-lowest assigned to any of the quarter-finalists.

barcelona vs psg opta prediction

Barcelona vs PSG UCL Squads

Barcelona: Marc-André ter Stegen, Iñaki Peña, Áron Yaakobishvili, João Cancelo, Alejandro Balde, Ronald Araújo, Iñigo Martínez, Andreas Christensen, Pau Cubarsí, Marcos Alonso, Jules Koundé, Gavi, Pedri, Oriol Romeu, Sergi Roberto, Frenkie de Jong, Ilkay Gündogan, Unai Hernandez, Ferran Torres, Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, João Félix, Vitor Roque, Pau Victor, Lamine Yamal.

Head Coach: Xavi

Paris Saint-Germain: Keylor Navas, Alexandre Letellier, Arnau Tenas, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Nordi Mukiele, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Manuel Ugarte, Fabián Ruiz, Danilo, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Ethan Mbappé, Senny Mayulu, Kylian Mbappé, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola.

Head coach: Luis Enrique

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