The Cívitas Metropolitano plays host to a huge UEFA Champions League tussle on Wednesday. We look ahead to the game with our Atlético Madrid vs Dortmund prediction and preview.
Atlético Madrid vs Dortmund Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer gives Atlético Madrid a 44.2% chance of beating Borussia Dortmund (32.5%) in Wednesday’s quarter-final first leg.
- Atlético have not lost any of their 16 home games in the Champions League knockout stages under Diego Simeone (10 wins, six draws), only conceding four goals in those matches.
- Antoine Griezmann is one goal away from matching his best scoring season in the Champions League, having netted seven times in 2015-16, when Atlético last reached the final.
Match Preview
With Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Arsenal landing on the same side of a somewhat lopsided UEFA Champions League draw, the door may be ajar for a surprise package to reach the final. Atlético Madrid and Borussia Dortmund have both gone the distance in Europe’s premier club competition in the not-too-distant past, and they face off in the Spanish capital on Wednesday, looking to put one foot in the semi-finals.
The Opta supercomputer gives Atlético just a 5% chance of becoming European champions for the first time, yet that won’t concern Diego Simeone in the slightest. The Argentine masterminded another memorable continental triumph in the last 16, with Atléti eliminating last season’s runners-up Inter on penalties, following a tense 2-2 aggregate draw.
The Nerazzurri seemed to struggle in the bearpit that is the Cívitas Metropolitano in the second leg of that tie, and Atléti will be determined to make home advantage count again on Wednesday. They have never lost in 16 Champions League knockout matches at either the Vicente Calderón or the Metropolitano under Simeone, winning 10 and drawing six.
Incredibly, Atlético have kept 12 clean sheets in those matches, only conceding four goals. Always awkward opponents, Simeone’s men will look to stay compact and frustrate Dortmund. Of all 32 teams to compete in the Champions League proper this term, only Union Berlin (21.6), Lazio (19.8) and Copenhagen (18.2) have allowed opponents more passes per defensive action (PPDA) than the 16.6 permitted by Atléti.
Despite their reputation for defensive football, Atlético have scored 19 goals in the Champions League this season, a tally only bettered by Man City (24) ahead of the first set of quarter-final fixtures. Those goals have come from a figure of just 12.8 expected goals (xG), with their overperformance of +6.3 relative to their underlying numbers the largest in the competition.
Some outstanding finishing from Antoine Griezmann (six goals from 4.2 xG) and Álvaro Morata (five from 3.6 xG) has contributed to those figures, and Griezmann’s total of 32 Champions League goals for Los Colchoneros is the most of any player in their history. He could match his best return in a single Champions League campaign on Wednesday, having netted seven times when Atléti last reached the final in 2015-16.
Memphis Depay started alongside Griezmann as Atléti boosted their hopes of a top-four finish in La Liga by beating Villarreal last week, but with the Dutchman suffering a muscle injury in training, Morata will likely return to Simeone’s lineup.
Like Atlético, Dortmund are far from assured of a place in next season’s Champions League, with Saturday’s 1-0 defeat to Stuttgart leaving them outside the Bundesliga’s top four, behind RB Leipzig on goal difference.
BVB are competing in just their second Champions League quarter-final since 2016-17, having overcome PSV by a 3-1 aggregate scoreline in the last 16. Edin Terzić’s men earned a hard-fought 1-1 draw in the first leg of that tie in Eindhoven, before goals from Jadon Sancho and Marco Reus fired them to victory at Signal Iduna Park.
Gregor Kobel was the hero of that match as he made seven saves to keep PSV at bay. According to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model, Kobel has prevented more goals than any other shot-stopper in the Champions League this season, only conceding four times from 8.9 expected goals on target faced.
Kobel recovered from illness to return to Dortmund’s lineup on Saturday, but BVB will again be without full-back Ramy Bensebaini and forward Donyell Malen on Wednesday.
Only Rodrygo (14) and Kylian Mbappé (12) have recorded more shot-ending carries than Malen’s 11 in the Champions League this season. Karim Adeyemi will likely start in his absence, having scored in two of his last three Champions League appearances against Milan and Paris Saint-Germain.
Viewers should expect an intense contest from the first whistle, with Dortmund averaging 368 high pressures per Champions League game in 2023-24, more than any of the other quarter-finalists. Perhaps surprisingly, Atléti rank second by that metric, with 342.
Atlético Madrid vs Dortmund Head-to-Head
Wednesday’s match will be the seventh in major European competitions between Atlético and Dortmund. Having failed to win any of the teams’ first three meetings (one draw, two losses), the Spanish side have won two of the last three (one defeat).
All three of Dortmund’s victories over Atlético have been accompanied by clean sheets, with the most recent coming by a 4-0 scoreline in the Champions League group stage in 2018-19.
Sancho scored his first ever Champions League goal in that match in Westphalia, with Axel Witsel also netting and Raphaël Guerreiro adding a brace.
BVB have won their last two away games against Spanish teams in the Champions League, although both of those came against Sevilla (3-2 in 2021 and 4-1 in 2022). Prior to that, they had only won on one of their 16 trips to Spain in European competitions (five draws, 10 defeats).
Spanish sides have had the upper hand over their German counterparts in recent years, meanwhile. There have been 15 two-legged knockout ties played between clubs from Spain and Germany in the Champions League since the start of 2013-14, with the Spanish side progressing from 13 (87%).
Recent Form
Atlético have only lost two of their last 33 home games across all competitions (26 wins, five draws), though those defeats have both come within their last five outings at the Metropolitano – 1-0 to Athletic Bilbao in February and 3-0 to Barcelona in their last home match.
Dortmund, meanwhile, saw a five-match winning streak brought to a halt by Stuttgart last time out, though they are unbeaten in their last nine on the road in all competitions, posting five wins and four draws in a run dating back to early December.
The Bundesliga giants have only won one of their last 10 away games in the knockout stages of the Champions League, though, losing eight of those matches (one draw).
Their last road win at the quarter-final stage of the competition came back in March 1997 (1-0 versus Auxerre), drawing two and losing three of their five away matches in the last eight since then.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Atlético Madrid vs Dortmund Predicted Lineups
Atlético Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Atlético slight favourites to win Wednesday’s first leg, though the same is not true for the tie overall.
Simeone’s side are given a 44.2% chance of establishing a first-leg lead, with Dortmund victorious in 32.5% of pre-match simulations and the likelihood of a draw rated at 23.3%.
In the supercomputer’s tournament predictions, Dortmund are given a 56.3% chance of reaching the last four, compared to Atléti’s 43.7%. Terzić’s team are assigned just an 8.3% chance of lifting the trophy, though, making them sixth favourites overall.
Atlético Madrid vs Dortmund UCL Squads
Atlético Madrid: Horatiu Moldovan, Jan Oblak, José María Giménez, Gabriel, Stefan Savić, Nahuel Molina, Mario Hermoso, Reinildo, Rodrigo De Paul, Koke, Saúl Ñíguez, Thomas Lemar, Samuel Lino, Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo Riquelme, Arthur Vermeeren, Axel Witsel, Sergio Guerrero, Antoine Griezmann, Memphis Depay, Ángel Correa, Álvaro Morata, Álex Calatrava, Abdellah Raihani.
Head Coach: Diego Simeone
Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Ian Maatsen, Lion Semic, Özcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.
Head Coach: Edin Terzić
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