We look ahead to the clash with our Arsenal vs Luton prediction and preview. These two clubs produced a seven-goal thriller last time they met – can we expect more of the same at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night?

Arsenal vs Luton Stats: Quick Hits

  • Arsenal are the heavy favourites for this one, defeating Luton Town in 75.1% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
  • Mikel Arteta’s side are unbeaten in their last 38 Premier League home games against promoted teams (W33 D5), winning each of the last nine.
  • Gabriel Jesus could become the first player in Premier League history to score goals on his birthday for two different clubs.

Match Preview

Arsenal will be hoping to, at least temporarily, return to the Premier League summit when they host relegation-threatened Luton Town at Emirates Stadium on Wednesday.

Mikel Arteta’s side will have the chance to place some early pressure on leaders Liverpool, who face Sheffield United at Anfield on Thursday, after relinquishing top spot to Jürgen Klopp’s Reds following a goalless draw at fellow title challengers Manchester City on Sunday.

Another instalment of Arteta against former mentor and colleague Pep Guardiola failed to live up to the pre-match hype of two title contenders facing each other at the Etihad Stadium, as City and Arsenal cancelled one another out to share a point that meant Liverpool’s win over Brighton on Matchday 30 left them leading the league table.

Gabriel Jesus squandered Arsenal’s two best chances against his former side in an otherwise largely nondescript clash between the two English giants, though the Brazilian can achieve Premier League history against Luton.

Jesus will turn 27 on Wednesday, having previously scored on his 24th birthday for Man City, and could become the first Premier League player to find the net on their day of birth for two different clubs – a niche record to search for.

The Arsenal striker will be ably supported by Martin Ødegaard, who has been involved in 12 goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances against promoted sides (eight goals, four assists), as Wednesday’s hosts aim to slice the two-point gap behind Liverpool and move further than one clear of Man City.

Rob Edwards’ visitors will also have to contend with the in-form Kai Havertz, with the German involved in four Premier League goals in his last five at the Emirates (three goals, one assist) after managing just one assist in his first eight such outings for the club.

As for Arteta’s team news, Jurriën Timber remains the only long-term absentee from Arsenal’s lineup heading into the midweek kick-off.

An injury-hit Luton suffered a gut-wrenching late blow on MD 30 as Issa Kaboré’s own goal and Son Heung-min’s 86th-minute strike secured a comeback victory for Tottenham, who had earlier fallen behind to Tahith Chong’s third-minute opener at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last Saturday.

Only Elijah Adebayo has scored a faster Premier League goal for Luton (18 seconds versus Brighton in January) than Chong’s opener against Tottenham (02:17), though that could not stop the Hatters from becoming just the third side in Premier League history to lose three successive games in which they’ve led at half-time – after Aston Villa in May 2021 and Sunderland in April 2003 (a run of four).

Edwards’ absentee list remains an increasing concern, with Tom Lockyer, Amari’i Bell, Marvelous Nakamba, Dan Potts, Adebayo, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Mads Andersen, Chiedozie Ogbene, Gabriel Osho and Jacob Brown on a seemingly never-ending injury report.

Alfie Doughty, Chong and Reece Burke were all at least fit to start against Tottenham after injury concerns, though that positive news was compounded by the MD 30 defeat that left them 18th in the league table, behind fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest on goal difference.

Arsenal vs Luton Head-to-Head

Following Declan Rice’s last-gasp winner in a 4-3 victory at Kenilworth Road in December, Arsenal are looking to complete their first league double over Luton since the 1983-84 campaign.

Luton 3-4 Arsenal

This will be Luton’s first visit to the Gunners since a 2-0 loss in August 1991, though the away side have conceded at least twice in each of their last 11 away league games at Arsenal, losing the last 10 in a row (D1).

Continue to look away Luton fans… Arsenal have won all five of their league games against promoted sides this season, netting at least three goals each time (23 in total). The most combined goals any side has scored against promoted teams in a Premier League campaign is 24 – also by Arsenal in 2012-13.

In total, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 38 league home games against teams coming up from the Championship (W33 D5), winning each of the last nine. The only promoted sides to win away at the Gunners in their first-ever season in the competition are Blackburn Rovers (1992-93), West Ham (1993-94) and Hull City (2008-09).

Recent Form

Luton have scored in each of their last 18 Premier League games, the longest ongoing scoring streak in the competition, but they’ve won just four of these 18 matches and are winless in their last nine (D3 L6).

It will be a difficult ask to come away from the Emirates with anything, regardless of if they score, given Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 Premier League home games (L1), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 14-3.

Arteta’s men have already won 5-0 twice at home this season, against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace, last winning more home league games by 5+ goals in a single campaign in 2000-01 (three).

Luton have not enjoyed playing under the floodlights so far, managing just four points from 24 available from evening kick-offs (7pm or later) in the Premier League this season (W1 D1 L6), with their sole victory coming at home to Brighton in January (4-0).

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Arsenal vs Luton Predicted Lineups

Arsenal Predicted Lineup vs Luton
Luton Predicted Lineup vs Arsenal

Arsenal vs Luton Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is predicting a win for Arsenal, who triumphed in a seismic 75.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Luton’s victory chances ranked at just 8.5%.

Though an unlikely away win may not be on the cards, a draw could be Luton’s best hope as that result was forecast in 16.4% of the same data-led model.

Arsenal’s Premier League title-winning chances did not alter from 18.8% after the draw with Man City, whose 33.5% likelihood of defending their league trophy is now behind new favourites Liverpool (47.7%).

At the other end of the league table, Luton are the third favourites for Premier League relegation at 65%, as they attempt to catch Forest (38.7%) and avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

Arsenal vs Luton Prediction

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