Will Mikel Arteta’s men seize their opportunity to go three points clear at the Premier League summit? We look ahead to Tuesday’s game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction and preview.

Arsenal vs Chelsea Stats: The Quick Hits

  • The Opta supercomputer favours Arsenal ahead of Tuesday’s London derby, with the Gunners given a 51% chance of overcoming Chelsea (22.5%).
  • Mauricio Pochettino has never won a Premier League game at Arsenal, drawing four and losing three of his seven visits to the Emirates Stadium with Southampton and Tottenham.
  • Cole Palmer has scored 20 Premier League goals this season, including 10 in his last five games. Only Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba have ever scored more for the Blues in a single campaign.

Match Preview

With all three contenders in action twice, this week could just prove decisive in the Premier League title race. The destination of the trophy may no longer be in Arsenal’s hands, but they sit top of the pile ahead of two huge London derbies against Chelsea and Tottenham, and anything less than perfection will likely be punished with Liverpool and Manchester City lurking.

After losing control of the title race and exiting the UEFA Champions League in the space of a miserable few days, Arsenal steadied the ship with Saturday’s 2-0 win over a Wolves side missing six regular starters through injury. The Gunners made hard work of it at Molineux, but goals from Leandro Trossard and Martin Ødegaard were enough in a game they needed to win.

According to the Opta supercomputer’s season predictions, Saturday’s win saw Arsenal’s hopes of topping the pile climb to 22.1%, above Liverpool’s 15.9%, but City retain their crown in 62% of our season simulations, their game in hand crucial at this stage.

Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best in the West Midlands, but they held their depleted opponents at arm’s length to pick up their 15th clean sheet of the Premier League season. That is at least five more than any other team (Newcastle United and Everton have 10 apiece), while they last recorded more in a single campaign in 2015-16 (18).

In attack, Arteta has a decision to make after seeing Gabriel Jesus fail to score in a sixth successive Premier League game. With four goals from 54 shots in the Premier League this season, Jesus has a conversion rate of just 7.4%. Of all players to attempt at least 50 shots, only Dominik Szoboszlai (5.5%) and Marcus Tavernier (5.9%) have worse ratios.

Fortunately for Arteta, Arsenal’s wide men have provided a steady stream of goals, with Trossard enjoying his most prolific Premier League campaign with nine. Only Bukayo Saka has more for Arsenal this term (14), and the England star has also been involved in 17 goals in Premier League London derbies since the start of last season (eight goals, nine assists) – more than any other player.   

Takehiro Tomiyasu will be assessed ahead of Tuesday’s game after sustaining a knock against Bayern Munich last week, but it will come too soon for Jurriën Timber as he works his way back from an anterior cruciate ligament injury. Jorginho could come into Arsenal’s lineup if Arteta prioritises control, allowing another former Chelsea player, Kai Havertz, to start as his striker.

The Blues are now focused solely on salvaging European qualification in the closing weeks of the season, which they will end trophyless after Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final defeat to City.

Chelsea were perhaps unfortunate to be denied a penalty in that game as Palmer’s free-kick struck the outstretched hand of Jack Grealish, but they also squandered plenty of clear-cut chances to go ahead before Bernardo Silva’s strike deflected in off Marc Cucurella late on.   

Nicolas Jackson alone accumulated 0.73 expected goals (xG) but failed to find the net, also passing up one glorious chance to shoot after rounding Stefan Ortega. Jackson’s 10 Premier League goals have come from a total of 13.98 xG, meaning only Dominic Calvert Lewin (-5.98) and Darwin Núñez (-4.10) have underperformed their underlying figures by a greater margin than him this season.

A victory on Tuesday would drag Chelsea level with Newcastle United and Manchester United in the race for European football. Despite fierce criticism of boss Pochettino, they are currently enjoying their longest unbeaten run in the Premier League since 2021, avoiding defeat in eight straight games (four wins, four draws) since February’s 4-2 loss to Wolves.

They have scored at least two goals in their last six league matches, with their 19 goals since the start of March making them the division’s leading scorers in that time. That fact owes much to Palmer, who has 20 Premier League goals this term, including 10 in his last five matches.

Only three Chelsea players have ever scored more in a single Premier League campaign – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (23 in 2000-01 and 2001-02), Frank Lampard (22 in 2009-10) and Didier Drogba (29 in 2009-10).

Palmer has converted all nine of the penalties he has taken in the Premier League. Only Yaya Touré (11/11) has a better 100% conversion rate in the competition’s history. Only five players have ever reached double figures for penalties scored in a single season – Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (10), Andrew Johnson in 2004-05 (11), Lampard in 2009-10 (10), Steven Gerrard in 2013-14 (10) and Luka Milivojević in 2018-19 (10).

Arsenal vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

Arsenal have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games against Chelsea (five wins, two draws) and are unbeaten in their last four against them, their longest streak since they went 19 without defeat between 1995 and 2005.

The Gunners did drop two points in October’s reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge, but it could have been worse as goals from Palmer and Mykhailo Mudryk put them 2-0 down. Declan Rice and Trossard were on target late on as Arsenal fought back in a 2-2 draw.

Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal xG stats

Arsenal won this exact fixture last season by a 3-1 scoreline, with Ødegaard scoring twice while Jesus and Noni Madueke were also on target. Chelsea have not lost consecutive away league games against Arsenal since enduring a run of three defeats between December 2001 and October 2003.

Tuesday’s 8pm kick-off time is not a good omen for Chelsea, who won their first evening kick-off (7pm or later) against Arsenal in the Premier League in March 1993 but have since failed to win in 11 such games, drawing seven and losing four.

Former Tottenham boss Pochettino, meanwhile, is looking to end his own personal hoodoo at the Emirates. He has not won any of his seven away Premier League matches against Arsenal, drawing four and losing three with Southampton and Spurs.

Recent Form

Following their 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa last time out at the Emirates, Arsenal could lose successive home league games for the first time since April 2022. They last did so without scoring back in November 2020.

Chelsea’s last three league wins have all come at Stamford Bridge, with their last three away games – against Man City, Brentford and Sheffield United – all finishing level.

Chelsea have only won two of their last 10 away games in the Premier League (three draws, five defeats) in a run stretching back to early November, with those victories coming against Luton Town (3-2) and Crystal Palace (3-1).

The Blues have, however, won five of their last eight Premier League London derbies (two draws, one defeat), having won just one of their previous 10 (three draws, six losses).

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Arsenal vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups

Arsenal predicted lineup vs Chelsea
Chelsea predicted lineup vs Arsenal

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to pile the pressure on Liverpool and City ahead of their midweek fixtures, with the Gunners given a 51% chance of earning three points on Tuesday.

Across 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Chelsea were victorious in just 22.5% of scenarios, with 26.5% seeing the points shared.

While Arsenal remain second favourites for the title, Chelsea are viewed as outsiders in the race for Europe. The supercomputer gives them a 9.2% chance of finishing sixth and a 23.7% chance of snatching seventh place, finishing eighth in a league-high 45.7% of scenarios.  

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction Opta

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