David Moyes’ side look to overturn a one-goal deficit from the first leg. We look ahead to this UEFA Europa League last-16 second leg with our West Ham vs Freiburg prediction and preview.
West Ham vs Freiburg Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts West Ham will win this match inside 90 minutes (54.6%), but gives the edge to Freiburg (54.8%) in terms of progressing to the quarter-finals.
- The Hammers beat the Bundesliga side home and away in this year’s UEFA Europa League group stage, but lost 1-0 in last week’s first leg.
- Freiburg’s Michael Gregoritsch has the best minutes-per-goal ratio by a player to score 5+ goals in a Europa League campaign since Pizzi in 2020-21 for Benfica.
Match Preview
Last season’s winners of the UEFA Europa Conference League have work to do to keep their dream of winning this year’s UEFA Europa League alive.
West Ham were beaten 1-0 by Freiburg last week in the first leg at the Europa-Park Stadion, so will need to win by at least two goals (or on penalties) when they meet again at London Stadium on Thursday, as they did earlier this season.
The Hammers have alternated between a win (three) and a defeat (two) in their five home major European matches against German opponents – they won 2-0 against Freiburg in December most recently, a result that – if repeated – would see them go through here.
That was Freiburg’s only previous trip to England in European competition. However, Breisgau-Brasilianer have won five of their last nine away games in this competition (D2 L2).
At Wednesday’s press conference, a determined David Moyes said of his side’s chances: “We all know what the outcome has to be, and whether we win in 90 minutes, or whether we win over 120 minutes, we have to do it one way or the other, so I think our focus in every way is only on how we’re going to win and putting in a performance to get us there.”
Including qualifiers, West Ham have won their last 10 home matches in European competition, scoring 25 goals and never conceding more than once in those games (six conceded). Their last home defeat did come against German opposition, though, losing 2-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League in April 2022.
Freiburg are aiming to reach the last eight of a major European competition for the first time ever. They have won their last two knockout matches (3-2 vs Lens, 1-0 vs West Ham), as many as they’d won in their first 11 knockout games in major European competition (W2 D4 L5).
West Ham will have to look out for Michael Gregoritsch again, after he scored the only goal of the first leg. Despite only playing 299 minutes in this season’s Europa League, Gregoritsch has scored five goals for Freiburg, averaging one every 60 minutes. It’s the best minutes-per-goal ratio by a player to score 5+ goals in a Europa League campaign since Pizzi in 2020-21 for Benfica (one every 55 mins).
The hosts will likely be without Emerson and Maxwell Cornet, though Moyes otherwise has a strong squad to pick from.
West Ham vs Freiburg Head-to-Head
These two have only faced each other twice before, and both games were just a few months ago in the group stage of this competition.
West Ham came out on top in both, winning 2-1 in Germany before a 2-0 victory at London Stadium thanks to goals from Mohammed Kudus and Edson Álvarez.
Recent Form
West Ham are still working their way though a rough patch of form, having only won twice in 12 games in all competitions since the turn of the year (D5 L5).
Those wins came recently in back-to-back Premier League games against Brentford and Everton, but last week’s 1-0 loss at Freiburg was followed by a 2-2 home draw with relegation-threatened Burnley on Sunday that required a stoppage-time equaliser from Danny Ings.
Christian Streich’s Freiburg have not been faring much better, only winning once in eight games in all competitions before their first-leg victory against the Hammers, which was an extra-time win over Lens in the Europa League play-off round second leg.
They followed up last Thursday’s success with their first Bundesliga win since January as they beat Bochum 2-1 on Sunday.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
West Ham vs Freiburg Prediction
West Ham are predicted to win on the night, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 54.6% chance of doing so in 90 minutes. They are slight underdogs to go through, though, with a 45.2% chance of advancing.
Freiburg will go through with a win (21.6%) or a draw (23.8%), and have a 54.8% chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Despite winning the Europa Conference League last season, the Hammers are only given a 2.0% chance of following it up with the Europa League.
Though they are slightly fancied ahead of their opponents to go through, Freiburg are given a smaller probability of lifting the trophy in Dublin, at just 1.1%.
West Ham vs Freiburg UEL Squads
West Ham: Lukasz Fabianski, Alphonse Areola, Joseph Anang, Ben Johnson, Aaron Cresswell, Kurt Zouma, Vladimir Coufal, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Angelo Ogbonna, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, James Ward-Prowse, Lucas Paquetá, Kalvin Phillips, Mohammed Kudus, Edson Álvarez, Tomás Soucek, Michail Antonio, Maxwel Cornet, Danny Ings, Jarrod Bowen.
Head Coach: David Moyes
Freiburg: Noah Atubolu, Florian Müller, Benjamin Uphoff, Lukas Schneller, Philipp Lienhart, Kenneth Schmidt, Manuel Gulde, Attila Szalai, Lukas Kübler, Kiliann Sildillia, Matthias Ginter, Christian Günter, Jordy Makengo, Noah Weißhaupt, Maximilian Eggestein, Yannik Keitel, Florent Muslija, Nicolas Höfler, Vincenzo Grifo, Merlin Röhl, Fabian Rüdlin, Ritsu Doan, Lucas Höler, Junior Adamu, Roland Sallai, Maximilian Philipp, Michael Gregoritsch, Maximilian Breunig.
Head Coach: Christian Streich
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