After successful weeks in Europe for both, we look ahead to this Premier League clash with our West Ham vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Stats: Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer almost can’t separate these two, but makes Aston Villa slight favourites with a 36.0% chance of victory at London Stadium.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last eight league home games against Villa.
- If fit, Ollie Watkins could become just the third player in Premier League history to score multiple goals in three straight away games.
Match Preview
Aston Villa will be desperate for a response when they visit West Ham at London Stadium on Sunday, having suffered a gut-wrenching blow to their top-four aspirations in the Premier League on Matchday 28.
Unai Emery’s side will have been hoping to play UEFA Champions League football next season but those dreams were somewhat dented after a 4-0 humiliation at home to Tottenham, whose blistering victory leaves them trailing fourth-placed Villa by just two points and still boasting a game in hand.
James Maddison and Brennan Johnson were both on target in the second half at Villa Park last Sunday before John McGinn was shown a straight red card for a reckless hack at the advancing Destiny Udogie. Matters worsened as Son Heung-min and Timo Werner added further damage late on.
That dismissal was McGinn’s first red card of his Villa career, in what was his 224th appearance for the club across all competitions, while the loss was Emery’s joint-heaviest home defeat as a manager – equalling a 5-1 Russian Premier League thrashing by Dinamo Moscow in November 2012 when in charge of Spartak Moscow.
Ollie Watkins has scored a brace in his last two Premier League away games, doing so in a 2-1 win at Fulham and a 3-2 win at Luton Town. Only two players have ever scored multiple goals in three consecutive away appearances in the competition – Dennis Bergkamp (September 1997) and Harry Kane (September 2017).
In total, Watkins’ 16 Premier League goals have been worth 13 points to Villa this season, with no player’s strikes being more valuable for their side this term. It’s the most points a Villa player has single-handedly provided with his goals in one top-flight campaign since Christian Benteke in 2012-13 (14).
However, Emery could be without his talismanic striker, who limped off with a knee injury in the first half after scoring in Thursday’s 4-0 win over Ajax that took the Premier League side through to the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals. Leon Bailey, Jhon Durán and Moussa Diaby were also on target.
As for the rest of Villa’s team news, McGinn will be suspended and joins the injured Tyrone Mings, Boubacar Kamara and Emiliano Buendía on the sidelines, though Jacob Ramsey could return from an ankle issue.
West Ham required a second-half salvaging act in their last league outing, coming from two goals down against Burnley to draw 2-2 as Danny Ings’ 91st-minute equaliser against his former side saved the hosts on MD 28.
That marked Ings’ first Premier League goal of the season and the Englishman faces another former employer here, having played 48 top-flight games for Villa. He could become the third player to score a goal in the competition against four different teams he’s previously played for in the league (Burnley, Liverpool, Southampton), along with Peter Crouch and Nicolas Anelka.
Against Burnley, Lucas Paquetá had earlier reduced the deficit created by David Datro Fofana’s ferocious finish and a Konstantinos Mavropanos own goal. Though not helping towards a victory on Sunday, all 12 of West Ham’s Premier League wins this season have been when Paquetá has been in the starting lineup, with the Hammers failing to win any of their seven games when the Brazilian doesn’t start (D3 L4).
Mohammed Kudus will likely start on the opposite flank to Paquetá once again, with that pair supporting makeshift striker Jarrod Bowen. Paquetá, Bowen and Kudus (2) were all on the scoresheet on Thursday, along with Aaron Cresswell, as West Ham booked their UEFA Europa League quarter-final spot with a 5-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
Moyes confirmed at his press conference on Friday that Maxwel Cornet will miss the game with Villa, while a late call will be made on Emerson’s availability.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
West Ham are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League home games against Aston Villa (W4 D4) since a 2-1 loss in April 2011 under Avram Grant.
However, they didn’t do particularly well at Villa Park in the reverse fixture in October. Villa ran out 4-1 winners that day, with two Douglas Luiz goals (one a penalty) followed by Jarrod Bowen halving the deficit. Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey put the result beyond doubt, though.
Villa are looking to complete a Premier League double over West Ham for only the second time, also doing so in 2010-11.
Recent Form
Villa have won each of their last three Premier League away games, against Luton Town, Fulham and Sheffield United, by an aggregate score of 10-3.
The Midlands side last had a longer winning run on the road in the top flight between November 2008 and February 2009 (seven), though West Ham have started to pick up form after a disappointing opening to 2024.
Moyes’ men have won two of their last three league games, against Everton and Brentford, after a six-game winless run to start the new year. Including last Sunday’s draw with Burnley, they’ve scored nine goals in these three matches, just one fewer than they managed in their previous 10 league games combined (10).
Villa are unbeaten in eight Premier League games in London under Emery (W6 D2), winning the last four in a row, having lost eight of their previous nine under Steven Gerrard and Dean Smith. It’s their longest run without defeat, and joint-longest winning run in the capital in their league history.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
West Ham vs Aston Villa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two sides but suggested a narrow advantage for Villa, who triumphed in 36.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations compared to a West Ham win in 35.4%.
A draw would only further damage Villa’s top-four hopes, though that result was predicted in 28.6% of the same data-led model – a scenario that Emery will surely want to avoid.
In Opta’s end-of-season simulations, Villa’s chances of a place in the Premier League’s top four have dropped to 41.2% after the defeat to Spurs (53.1% for the same position), while West Ham drop two league-table spots down to ninth most often in 19.7%.
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