We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA women’s basketball conference tournament predictions.

If you have not watched a women’s college basketball game this season, now is the time with the NCAA Tournament approaching.

The sport is growing faster than ever, which should not be surprising because the storylines have been historic, and perhaps ready to be even better during March Madness.

Will No. 1 South Carolina finally have a perfect season?

Or will Iowa and guard Caitlin Clark, the all-time Division I leading scorer in men’s and women’s basketball, stop the Gamecocks for the second straight year?

Or will the NCAA champion emerge out of the best conference, the Pac-12? In its final season, the conference has featured the best game of the season.

The Division I women’s basketball tournament field will be announced on Selection Sunday a few hours after the men’s tournament’s reveal, so you can fill out two March Madness brackets by the end of the night on March 17.

But there’s still a lot of basketball between now and then – we still have to go through conference tournament season.

Oh yeah, it’s March all right. 

We’ve simulated each women’s conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR, our Team Rating for Conference and Roster. The net efficiency metric, which we have for men’s college basketball and college football as well, calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

An average team is at 0, while a good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a rating of 20 that averages 70 possessions per game would outscore an average team by .29 points per possession (20 divided by 70) in a game. If the game had 100 possessions, then that 20-TRACR team would outscore the average team by about 29 points.


With that, let’s dive through each NCAA women’s basketball conference and check on our supercomputer’s favorites. They’re listed in order of highest probability of winning the conference tournament with that probability in parentheses.

Note: All TRACR rankings referenced are through March 5.

America East / American Athletic Conference / Atlantic 10 / ACC / Atlantic Sun / Big 12 / Big East / Big Sky / Big Ten / Big West / Coastal Athletic / Conference USA / Horizon / Ivy League / Metro Atlantic Athletic / Mid-American / Mid-Eastern / Missouri Valley / Mountain West / Northeast / Ohio Valley / Pac-12 / Patriot League / SEC / Southern / Southland / Southwestern Athletic / Summit League / Sun Belt / West Coast / Western Athletic


  1. Maine (62.0%)
  2. Vermont (19.1%)
  3. Albany (10.7%)
  4. Binghamton (4.2%)
  5. Bryant (1.9%)
  6. NJIT (1.1%)
  7. UMass Lowell (0.5%)
  8. UMBC (0.4%)

Vermont won last year’s America East Tournament title with a 38-36 victory over Albany after each team managed just four points through the first quarter. The Catamounts would go on to lose by 43 to Connecticut in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament. Yeah, yikes.

But never fear, Maine (84th in TRACR) is here. The Black Bears have both the best offensive TRACR (9.11) and defensive TRACR (-6.01) in the America East. Fifth-year senior Anne Simon has averaged 23.6 points over her last seven games.

Maine should score more than 38 points in the title game if it makes it there, right? The Black Bears could get a No. 13 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but everyone else would likely be a 15 seed.

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  1. Temple (23.0%)
  2. North Texas (22.6%)
  3. Tulsa (14.0%)
  4. UTSA (11.4%)
  5. South Florida (9.2%)
  6. Memphis (6.0%)
  7. East Carolina (4.6%)
  8. Rice (3.7%)
  9. Charlotte (2.5%)
  10. SMU (1.2%)
  11. UAB (0.8%)
  12. Florida Atlantic (0.6%)
  13. Tulane (0.2%)
  14. Wichita State (0.2%)

It’s still a toss-up between Temple (86th), North Texas (89th) and Tulsa (104th) for the regular season title, but TRACR gives a slight advantage to Temple. UAB (179th) was a favorite in January, but the Blazers have lost five of their last six games by double digits.

This will be a one-bid conference on the women’s side compared to two, maybe three with the men. The AAC survivor is likely a 13 seed.

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  1. Richmond (25.9%)
  2. George Mason (23.7%)
  3. VCU (19.5%)
  4. Saint Joseph’s (19.1%)
  5. Rhode Island (8.0%)
  6. Duquesne (1.4%)
  7. Saint Louis (0.7%)
  8. Loyola Chicago (0.6%)
  9. Fordham (0.5%)
  10. George Washington (0.3%)
  11. Dayton (0.1%)
  12. Massachusetts (0.1%)
  13. La Salle (<0.1%)
  14. St. Bonaventure (<0.1%)
  15. Davidson (0%)

Davidson (81st) opened the season 12-1, but injuries eventually plagued the Wildcats to the point the team had to cancel the rest of the season on March 1. They forfeited two games, then dressed only seven players for a 45-40 loss to George Washington (it dropped the Wildcats to 18-8) and wound up forfeiting a third time in their regular-season finale against Saint Louis.

It’s a shame for any team, let alone one that could have made a run in the NCAA Tournament.

Saint Joseph’s (58th) may be in the NCAA First Four play-in game if it does not win the A-10 title. George Mason (62nd) and Richmond (63rd) are close in TRACR, but UR is a much-better team offensively, which helped propel the Spiders to the regular season title.

VCU (67th) is the best team in Division I women’s basketball at defending 3-pointers, holding opponents to 23.5% from beyond the arc. Only Albany (51.2) allows fewer points per game in D-I than VCU (52.0).

The A-10 had a terrific regular season, and it would be nice to see it receive two bids in the NCAA Tournament, especially considering the conference tournament might be a toss-up. The winner could get an 11 seed, maybe a 12.

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  1. Notre Dame (43.1%)
  2. North Carolina State (19.5%)
  3. Virginia Tech (13.0%)
  4. Duke (8.1%)
  5. Louisville (5.1%)
  6. Florida State (3.7%)
  7. Syracuse (3.5%)
  8. North Carolina (2.1%)
  9. Virginia (1.3%)
  10. Miami (FL) (0.5%)
  11. Georgia Tech (0.1%)
  12. Boston College (<0.1%)
  13. Clemson (<0.1%)
  14. Pittsburgh (<0.1%)
  15. Wake Forest (<0.1%)

Virginia Tech (18th) won the ACC’s regular season title, but TRACR does not have it as the team to beat in the conference tournament. The Hokies lost their last two games, including against Notre Dame (7th). The Irish have won five in a row by an average margin of 17.6 points, finishing the regular season with two wins over ranked opponents. N.C. State (17th), though, beat ND on the road prior to the Irish’s nice finish.

Still, the recent performance by Notre Dame, as well as its placing in the ACC Tournament, has it as the tourney favorite.

One team to watch out for is Duke (23rd), which had Division I’s second-best defensive TRACR last season behind only South Carolina. The defense is not as strong this season (nor is the offense), but the Blue Devils have picked it up lately, holding opponents to 55.0 points per game on 35.9% shooting over their last four games.

The ACC will likely have nine teams in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament, which would be a high for any conference. No teams are on the bubble, either (for now).

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  1. Florida Gulf Coast (80.7%)
  2. Central Arkansas (8.3%)
  3. Austin Peay (2.8%)
  4. Lipscomb (2.8%)
  5. Stetson (1.8%)
  6. Eastern Kentucky (1.5%)
  7. Jacksonville (0.8%)
  8. North Alabama (0.6%)
  9. Kennesaw State (0.5%)
  10. Bellarmine (0.2%)

Bellarmine (270th) is ineligible to make the NCAA Tournament, but can still win the ASUN Tournament. TRACR only gives it a 0.2% chance, though. But, hey, there’s a chance!

TRACR has loved Florida Gulf Coast (38th) all season, even having the Eagles as a preseason top-25 team. They’ve won 19 games in a row, going 16-0 in conference play. In fact, the Eagles have not lost a conference game in regulation since Feb. 12, 2022 (a three-point loss to Stetson).

FGCU was a 12 seed in last year’s tournament and upset Washington State before falling to Villanova in the second round. The Eagles will likely be a 12 seed again and should be a threat for another March Madness upset.

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BIG 12

  1. Texas (41.5%)
  2. Baylor (22.6%)
  3. Kansas State (12.1%)
  4. Oklahoma (9.9%)
  5. West Virginia (7.5%)
  6. Iowa State (3.7%)
  7. Kansas (1.4%)
  8. TCU (0.7%)
  9. Oklahoma State (0.5%)
  10. Cincinnati (0.1%)
  11. BYU (<0.1%)
  12. Houston (<0.1%)
  13. Texas Tech (<0.1%)
  14. UCF (<0.1)

Oklahoma (28th) caught fire during the second half of the season, winning 12 of its last 14 games en route to a Big 12 regular-season title. They included two wins over Texas (4th) and one each over Baylor (11th) and Kansas State (12th), but TRACR notes seven of the 12 wins in the final stretch were by single digits.

The Longhorns, on the other hand, have won nine of their last 10 (a loss to the Sooners), outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points, including wins over Baylor and K-State. With Texas having a stronger nonconference resume as well, TRACR gives it the advantage.

Baylor opened the regular season at 14-0 and was at one point the No. 4-ranked team in the country, but it proceeded to lose six of its next 10 games, before regrouping to finish on a five-game winning streak.

The difference has been second-half defense: The Bears allowed 38.1 points per game in the second half during the 10-game struggle, but since then has been allowing just 29.2 points in the second half. That will be the key if they can advance to the title game.

While the Big 12 is not the strongest conference in Division I women’s basketball like it is in men’s basketball, it still has an average TRACR rating of 27.0, which is third-highest among the 32 conferences. Expect about seven of these teams to make it to the NCAA Tournament, with Texas going in as a 2 or 3 seed.

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  1. Connecticut (79.8%)
  2. Creighton (11.2%)
  3. Marquette (5.1)
  4. Seton Hall (1.1%)
  5. St. John’s (1.0%)
  6. Villanova (0.9%)
  7. Georgetown (0.6%)
  8. DePaul (0.2%)
  9. Butler (<0.1%)
  10. Providence (<0.1%)
  11. Xavier (<0.1%)

UConn coach Geno Auriemma recently passed Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski for No. 2 on the all-time wins list for men’s or women’s basketball (behind only Stanford’s Tara VanDerveer), and although he has guided a record 11 national championships, the Huskies haven’t finished on top since 2016.

In going 18-0 in the Big East, this is the 18th time Auriemma has led UConn (2nd) to an undefeated record in conference play. Each of those wins was by 15+ points, and Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards have formed one of the best duos in women’s basketball.

The Big East should end with a Huskies triumph. But in the NCAA Tournament, Creighton (29th) will be a 5 or 6 seed, and while Marquette (41st) had bubble status for most of the season, it should be a lock now.

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  1. Eastern Washington (43.9%)
  2. Northern Arizona (20.9%)
  3. Montana (19.9%)
  4. Northern Colorado (5.4%)
  5. Montana State (4.4%)
  6. Idaho (3.7%)
  7. Idaho State (1.6%)
  8. Sacramento State (0.2%)
  9. Weber State (0.1%)
  10. Portland State (<0.1%)

Eastern Washington (78th) may represent the Big Sky in both the men’s and women’s versions of March Madness. The Eagles have won 10 straight games going into the conference tournament, holding opponents to 52.6 points per game.

Montana (104th) has a tougher route to the Big Sky title than Northern Arizona (116th). Eastern Washington beat the Lumberjacks by 25 on Feb. 22 and survived by one point at Montana last week.

Expect a 13 seed for EWU if it wins the title, and a 14 if it’s another team.

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  1. High Point (31.2%)
  2. USC Upstate (14.3%)
  3. Charleston Southern (12.5%)
  4. Winthrop (12.4%)
  5. Radford (10.0%)
  6. Presbyterian (9.9%)
  7. Longwood (6.3%)
  8. UNC Asheville (2.4%)
  9. Gardner-Webb (1.0%)

High Point (254th) is another school that could represent its conference in both the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. The women’s team is much lower in TRACR than its men’s counterpart, but that’s also because the Big South is the second-worst conference with an average TRACR of -18.9. Only the NEC (-27.8) is worse.

The team that wins the Big South Tournament will likely be in the NCAA’s opening round play-in game as a 16 seed.

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  1. Iowa (42.9%)
  2. Ohio State (27.1%)
  3. Michigan State (11.2%)
  4. Indiana (10.9%)
  5. Penn State (4.9%)
  6. Nebraska (1.7%)
  7. Maryland (0.8%)
  8. Illinois (0.3%)
  9. Michigan (0.1%)
  10. Minnesota (<0.1%)
  11. Northwestern (<0.1%)
  12. Purdue (<0.1%)
  13. Rutgers (<0.1%)
  14. Wisconsin (<0.1%)

We could talk about Iowa’s Caitlin Clark for days. She is a generational talent who has dramatically changed the scope of NCAA women’s basketball.

You can make the argument Clark has been the most influential athlete for a single sport over the last 10 years. She’s iconic, easily the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA Draft next month.

What doesn’t get mentioned enough about her is that while she is college basketball’s all-time scoring leader, she’s also an incredible passer. Her 1,058 career assists rank No. 6 in women’s Division I history.

Iowa guard Caitlin Clark leads NCAA Division I women’s basketball in both points (32.3) and assists (8.7) per game. (Associated Press)

Clark had two triple-doubles in the final three regular-season games, giving her six this season – two shy of the record eight set by Oregon’s Sabrina Ionescu – and 17 in her career, also second all-time behind Ionescu (26).

In addition to Clark, Iowa (3rd) boasts Kate Martin and Hannah Stuelke, who have made great steps this season. Stuelke had a 47-point game against Penn State on Feb. 8.

Ohio State (8th) won the Big Ten regular-season title despite losing to the Hawkeyes to end the regular season. Kevin McGuff was named the conference’s coach of the year, while transfer Celeste Taylor won defensive player of the year from the coaches. Leading scorer Jacy Sheldon also was a defensive presence, averaging 2.1 steals. The Buckeyes’ -24.5 defensive TRACR is the best in the Big Ten and ranks No. 6 in Division I.

Indiana (13th) has only four losses with Illinois (50th) being the only bad one of the Hooisers’ resume, and it’s not that bad. Mackenzie Holmes has the highest field-goal percentage in the country (67.0), which is actually down from last season (68.0). The Hoosiers were knocked out early in last year’s NCAA tournament as a 1 seed, but could still make a run as a 4 or 5 seed this year.

Maryland (42nd) and Michigan (53rd) are fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament and will likely need at least one game to make it. Penn State (24th) will need to win a game or two to solidify an NCAA bid.

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  1. Hawaii (36.1%)
  2. UC Irvine (35.8%)
  3. Cal Poly (14.1%)
  4. UC Riverside (4.9%)
  5. Long Beach State (3.9%)
  6. UC Davis (1.9%)
  7. Cal State Fullerton (1.8%)
  8. UC Santa Barbara (1.4%)
  9. Bakersfield (<0.1%)
  10. UC San Diego (<0.1%)

The Big West has a lame double-bye format for its top two seeds, meaning the winner will likely be UC Irvine or Hawaii. The Rainbow Wahine have made it to the last two NCAA tournaments, losing to the eventual champions LSU in the first round last year.

Whichever team gets by will be a 15 or 16 seed.

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  1. Stony Brook (52.1%)
  2. Monmouth (13.0%)
  3. North Carolina A&T (12.1%)
  4. Charleston (10.7%)
  5. Towson (4.1%)
  6. Campbell (2.9%)
  7. William & Mary (2.2%)
  8. Drexel (2.1%)
  9. Delaware (0.6%)
  10. Elon (0.1%)
  11. Hampton (<0.1%)
  12. Hofstra (<0.1%)
  13. Northeastern (<0.1%)
  14. UNCW (<0.1%)

If you like picking chaos in your March Madness bracket and think a 14 seed could upset a 3 seed later this month, consider Stony Brook. The Seawolves have only three losses, and two came in overtime.

The key has been holding opponents from beyond the arc, as they rank second in Division I at 24.2% behind only VCU (23.7%).

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  1. Middle Tennessee (76.6%)
  2. Liberty (11.2%)
  3. FIU (3.8%)
  4. Western Kentucky (2.7%)
  5. UTEP (1.9%)
  6. New Mexico State (1.8%)
  7. Louisiana Tech (1.7%)
  8. Jacksonville State (0.3%)
  9. Sam Houston (<0.1%)

Another mid-major to look out for in the NCAA Tournament is Middle Tennessee, which finished 16-0 in conference play after recent wins over Liberty and Louisiana Tech. Liberty is Middle Tennessee’s biggest obstacle, although it has a low chance of winning the C-USA Tournament, according to TRACR.

While the Blue Raiders will likely win the C-USA tourney, they could still make the NCAAs as an at-large selection. They went a combined 22-0 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games and even have a win over Tennessee.

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  1. Green Bay (52.7%)
  2. Cleveland State (35.1%)
  3. Purdue Fort Wayne (7.0%)
  4. Milwaukee (1.8%)
  5. Wright State (1.7%)
  6. Northern Kentucky (0.6%)
  7. Detroit (0.5%)
  8. Youngstown State (0.4%)
  9. IUPUI (0.1%)
  10. Oakland (<0.1%)
  11. Robert Morris (<0.1%)

If Green Bay (46th) doesn’t win the Horizon Tournament, it could still sneak into the NCAAs as one of the last four teams.

The team potentially standing in its way is Cleveland State (69th), which beat the Phoenix by 23 on Feb. 3.

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  1. Princeton (46.6%)
  2. Columbia (45.3%)
  3. Harvard (6.4%)
  4. Penn (1.6%)

The four spots in the Ivy League Tournament were set even before final weekend of the regular season. It’s quite likely the Ivy winner will be either Princeton or Columbia, the predetermined tournament host.

If that’s the final, then the loser will likely make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.

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  1. Fairfield (67.2%)
  2. Niagara (12.7%)
  3. Siena (10.8%)
  4. Canisius (3.5%)
  5. Manhattan (2.5%)
  6. Mount St. Mary’s (1.5%)
  7. Iona (0.8%)
  8. Quinnipiac (0.7%)
  9. Rider (0.2%)
  10. Saint Peter’s (0.1%)
  11. Marist (<0.1%)

It’s been an incredible season at Fairfield, which is 28-1 and ranked 25th in the AP Top 25 women’s basketball poll.

Do the right thing, committee – if the Stags do not win the conference tournament, then they deserve to be in the NCAAs as an at-large selection Their only loss was by three points to Vanderbilt.

Fairfield also beat Lehman 101-14 at the start of the season. Yes, you read that right.

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  1. Toledo (45.3%)
  2. Ball State (34.4%)
  3. Kent State (13.4%)
  4. Bowling Green (3.6%)
  5. Buffalo (2.1%)
  6. Northern Illinois (0.5%)
  7. Western Michigan (0.4%)
  8. Ohio (0.3%)

MAC top seed Toledo has won 13 games in a row, including 12 by double digits.

Ball State won the Sun Coast Challenge earlier this season with wins over two major conference teams.

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  1. Norfolk State (56.5%)
  2. Howard (26.6%)
  3. Coppin State (7.0%)
  4. Maryland Eastern Shore (5.8%)
  5. North Carolina Central (2.8%)
  6. Morgan State (1.0%)
  7. Delaware State (0.3%)
  8. South Carolina State (<0.1%)

Norfolk State, the only MEAC team with a TRACR above 0.0, has won 11 games in a row, including 10 by double digits. The Spartanettes will have home-court advantage for the entire tournament in Norfolk, Virginia. Howard may be able to contest, having won five of its last six games with the lone loss coming on the road against the Spartanettes.

They were a 16 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, losing to No. 1 South Carolina by 32 points. The winner of this tournament will likely be a 16 seed again.

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  1. Drake (36.8%)
  2. Belmont (35.0%)
  3. Missouri State (10.5%)
  4. UNI (7.4%)
  5. Murray State (5.2%)
  6. Illinois State (4.2%)
  7. UIC (0.8%)
  8. Southern Illinois (0.1%)
  9. Bradley (<0.1%)
  10. Evansville (<0.1%)
  11. Indiana State (<0.1%)
  12. Valparaiso (<0.1%)

What is not as good as March Madness but still oodles of fun? Arch Madness, of course.

Unlike its men’s counterpart, this Missouri Valley tournament will not feature Robbie Avila, but it could still have drama with regular-season champion Drake and Belmont.

It seems unlikely the MVC will get two bids, so a possible championship game between the Bulldogs and Bruins could be critical. Drake won both regular-season meetings by single digits.

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  1. UNLV (77.1%)
  2. Wyoming (6.2%)
  3. Colorado State (5.5%)
  4. New Mexico (4.9%)
  5. Boise State (2.6%)
  6. Nevada (1.5%)
  7. San Diego State (1.1%)
  8. Air Force (0.7%)
  9. Fresno State (0.4%)
  10. San Jose State (<0.1%)
  11. Utah State (<0.1%)

While Mountain West men’s basketball might get six teams in the NCAA Tournament, the women will likely be a one-bid conference unless UNLV (24th) doesn’t win the tournament title.

The Rebels’ offensive TRACR is 24.7, ninth-highest in Division I. They just beat San Diego State 100-41 last weekend. It’s the 90s all over again!

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  1. Sacred Heart (60.0%)
  2. Le Moyne (23.3%)
  3. FDU (8.5%)
  4. Merrimack (4.7%)
  5. Central Connecticut State (2.6%)
  6. LIU (0.4%)
  7. Stonehill (0.3%)
  8. Saint Francis (0.2%)

The NEC is by far the worst conference in Division I women’s basketball with an average rating of minus-27.8. Le Moyne is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, so it will likely be Sacred Heart representing the conference as a 16 seed. If Le Moyne wins the tournament title, then the NCAA bid will go to the tourney runner-up.

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  1. Southern Indiana (53.7%)
  2. UT Martin (16.4%)
  3. Little Rock (14.1%)
  4. Eastern Illinois (5.5%)
  5. Western Illinois (5.1%)
  6. Morehead State (2.7%)
  7. Tennessee Tech (2.2%)
  8. Tennessee State (0.3%)

This conference tournament is a bit messy. It’s a double-bye structure, giving Southern Indiana (128th) an easy chance to winning the tourney. However, the Screaming Eagles (great name) are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their D-I transitional period despite going 17-1 in conference play.

The NCAA bid will likely go to UT Martin (181st) or Little Rock (227th) and be as a 16 seed.

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  1. UCLA (32.1%)
  2. Stanford (27.0%)
  3. USC (11.2%)
  4. Oregon State (9.3%)
  5. Colorado (8.8%)
  6. Utah (7.2%)
  7. Arizona (1.8%)
  8. Washington State (1.5%)
  9. Washington (1.0%)
  10. California (0.1%)
  11. Arizona State (<0.1%)
  12. Oregon (<0.1%)

Perhaps the biggest sport impacted by the Pac-12 dissolve is NCAA women’s basketball. TRACR has it as the best conference, with the possibility of seven to nine teams going dancing this month.

Stanford (6th), the 2021 national champion, could be a 1 seed, and the same goes for UCLA (5th).

There’s depth, too. Oregon State (16th) was 4-14 in conference play last season, but went 12-6 this season in an outstanding turnaround.

Utah (16th) and USC (19th) have the potential to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.

Colorado (21st) has lost five of its last six, but will still be in the NCAAs. The Buffs even beat No. 1 LSU (9th) to start the season.

TRACR has UCLA as the favorite in the Pac-12 Tournament, but it could be any of the top six. Arizona (36th) and Washington (43rd) each may need to win at least one game to be on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble.

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  1. Colgate (31.0%)
  2. Holy Cross (30.4%)
  3. Lehigh (14.8%)
  4. Boston University (7.0%)
  5. Loyola (MD) (6.2%)
  6. Bucknell (5.0%)
  7. Army West Point (2.2%)
  8. Navy (1.6%)
  9. Lafayette (1.1%)
  10. American University (0.7%)

Colgate has shot up in TRACR after winning six of its last seven games to end the regular season, including a 37-point blowout win over Boston University. However, Holy Cross won the regular-season title and may have an easier path to win the tournament title. The Raiders won both of their matchups against the Crusaders in February.

Whichever team prevails, it will likely represent the conference as a 16 seed.

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  1. South Carolina (75.5%)
  2. LSU (16.4%)
  3. Ole Miss (2.8%)
  4. Tennessee (2.1%)
  5. Alabama (1.4%)
  6. Auburn (1.0%)
  7. Vanderbilt (0.4%)
  8. Texas A&M (0.1%)
  9. Florida (0.1%)
  10. Mississippi State (0.1%)
  11. Missouri (0.1%)
  12. Arkansas (<0.1%)
  13. Georgia (<0.1%)
  14. Kentucky (<0.1%)

South Carolina (1st) hasn’t lost a regular-season game since falling to Missouri by one point in overtime on Dec. 30, 2021.

Yes, well more than two years ago. Dawn Staley, take a bow.

The Gamecocks lost all five starters from last season’s Final Four squad to the WNBA – No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston, Zia Cooke, Brea Beal, Laeticia Amihere and Victaria Saxton. They retained Kamilla Cardoso, brought in Te-Hina Paopao from Oregon, and have relied on sophomores and juniors to replace them. Oh, has it worked.

The top candidate to stop South Carolina in the SEC Tournament and possibly the NCAA Tournament is the reigning champ, LSU (9th). The picture hasn’t been perfect for the Lady Tigers: They lost their first game of the season, Angel Reese was benched and missed four straight games, and the team has struggled with 3-point shooting at times (recall that they hit 11 3s in the 2023 NCAA championship game against Iowa).

But Kim Mulkey’s ostentatious style has not distracted LSU from winning games. Expect it to be a 2, maybe 3 seed in this year’s tournament. A win against South Carolina might not propel it to a 1 seed, but it would certainly secure a 2 spot.

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  1. Chattanooga (44.3%)
  2. Wofford (15.0%)
  3. UNCG (11.4%)
  4. Mercer (10.7%)
  5. East Tennessee State (10.2%)
  6. Samford (4.7%)
  7. Furman (3.5%)
  8. Western Carolina (0.2%)

Chattanooga (94th) beat then-No. 21 Mississippi State (55th) on Dec. 3, the biggest win in a 25-4 season that could result with a second consecutive NCAA Tournament bid. The Mocs were a 16 seed last year and scored only 33 points against Virginia Tech, but they could be a 14 seed this time around.

Upset alert? Be skeptical.

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  1. Lamar (45.8%)
  2. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (30.3%)
  3. Southeastern Louisiana (14.6%)
  4. UIW (6.3%)
  5. Texas A&M-Commerce (1.3%)
  6. New Orleans (0.9%)
  7. Nicholls (0.4%)
  8. Northwestern State (0.4%)

Lamar, which opened its season with a 108-34 win over overmatched Texas College, can finish 17-1 in conference with a win over Houston Christian on Thursday.

The Cardinals’ one Southland loss? At home against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Look out for the Islanders to steal the NCAA bid from Lamar.

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  1. Jackson State (56.1%)
  2. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (16.3%)
  3. Grambling State (11.2%)
  4. Southern University (10.6%)
  5. Bethune-Cookman (2.3%)
  6. Alabama A&M (1.7%)
  7. Florida A&M (1.1%)
  8. Prairie View A&M (0.7%)
  9. Alabama State (<0.1%)
  10. Alcorn State (<0.1%)
  11. Mississippi Valley State (<0.1%)
  12. Texas Southern (<0.1%)

Only the top eight teams make the SWAC Tournament, which leaves out Bethune-Cookman, Texas Southern, Mississippi Valley State and Alabama State.

Jackson State went 18-0 in conference play and has not lost since a five-game road losing streak to major conference teams. The Tigerettes’ TRACR rating is by far the best in the conference (UAPB is second).

Expect JSU to cruise through the conference tournament and have a 15 seed in the NCAAs. Any other team to come out of this tournament will likely be a 16 seed.

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  1. South Dakota State (58.6%)
  2. Oral Roberts (19.3%)
  3. North Dakota State (16.4%)
  4. South Dakota (4.5%)
  5. St. Thomas (MN) (0.5%)
  6. Denver (0.4%)
  7. Kansas City (0.2%)
  8. Omaha (0.1%)
  9. North Dakota (<0.1%)

South Dakota State (51st) has dominated this women’s basketball league, going 16-0 this season and 65-1 since 2020-21. Despite this, the Jackrabbits have had only one NCAA Tournament win since then – an overtime victory over USC last year.

They will have to rely on the Meyers – Brooklyn and Paige (they’re not actually related) – to lead the team for a deep NCAA Tournament run. This could be a scary 12 seed team looking for an upset.

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  1. Marshall (44.3%)
  2. Troy (21.3%)
  3. James Madison (11.8%)
  4. Old Dominion (10.7%)
  5. Southern Miss (3.9%)
  6. ULM (3.4%)
  7. App State (1.5%)
  8. Louisiana (1.2%)
  9. Arkansas State (0.7%)
  10. Georgia State (0.5%)
  11. Coastal Carolina (0.4%)
  12. Georgia Southern (0.3%)

The percentages reflect the Sun Belt Tournament after the first round.

Marshall (64th) is the heavy favorite after going 17-1 in conference play. However, its conference loss came against James Madison (107th) and it did not play Troy (93rd) in the regular season. Perhaps there is room for an upset here.

Marshall would likely receive a 13 or 14 seed in the NCAAs if it wins the conference tournament, while any other team would be a 14 or 15 seed.

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  1. Gonzaga (83.2%)
  2. Santa Clara (13.9%)
  3. Portland (1.1%)
  4. San Francisco (0.8%)
  5. Pacific (0.7%)
  6. Saint Mary’s (0.2%)
  7. San Diego (0.1%)
  8. Loyola Marymount (<0.1%)
  9. Pepperdine (<0.1%)

This looks more like a typical year for the West Coast men’s conference tournament than the women’s with Gonzaga (10th) having a strong chance at winning the title. The Bulldogs have not lost since Nov. 26 and have outscored conference foes by an average of 30.7 points.

Santa Clara (61st) is the only other WCC team in TRACR’s top 100, and it lost to Gonzaga 87-49 and 82-45.

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  1. Grand Canyon (49.5%)
  2. California Baptist (31.4%)
  3. Stephen F. Austin (13.8%)
  4. UT Arlington (3.1%)
  5. Utah Tech (1.8%)
  6. Tarleton State (0.3%)
  7. Southern Utah (0.1%)
  8. Abilene Christian (<0.1%)
  9. Seattle (<0.1%)
  10. UT Rio Grande Valley (<0.1%
  11. Utah Valley (<0.1%)

Utah Tech and Tarleton State are ineligible for the NCAA women’s basketball tournament, but can still play for the WAC title.

Like the men’s conference tournament, Grand Canyon is a favorite to advance to the NCAAs after going 16-4 in conference play. With a bid, it would be the women’s program’s first appearance in March Madness.

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Just like the NCAA women’s basketball tournaments, our supercomputer previewed the Division I men’s conference tournaments.

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