Two teams in need of a result kick off Matchday 28 at Old Trafford. Who will come out on top? We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League action with our Manchester United vs Everton prediction and preview.
Manchester United vs Everton Stats: Quick Hits
- Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Manchester United beat Everton in 51.0% of scenarios, with the Toffees triumphing in 21.4%.
- Everton are winless in 10 Premier League games, only enduring a longer streak in the competition between August and October 1994 (12 matches).
- Man Utd have faced at least 20 shots in four of their last five Premier League games, while Everton have underperformed their expected goals total by the greatest margin in the competition this season, netting 29 times from 41.6 xG.
Match Preview
Last Sunday’s derby clash with Manchester City started so well for Manchester United, with Marcus Rashford’s thunderous strike putting them on course for a famous win at the Etihad Stadium. However, it ended in a 3-1 defeat after City peppered André Onana’s goal and led to familiar questions being raised about United’s direction under Erik ten Hag. They will need a response when they face struggling Everton in Saturday’s early kick-off.
Having gone unbeaten in their previous 143 Premier League games when leading at half-time, United were powerless to resist as City’s dominance told after the break, with the outstanding Phil Foden scoring twice before Erling Haaland rounded off a 3-1 win. City’s superiority was evidenced by United attempting just three shots, with the Red Devils only recording fewer in one Premier League match since records began in 2003-04, in a 4-0 defeat at Liverpool in April 2022 (two).
United now sit 11 points adrift of fourth-placed Aston Villa and six behind Tottenham in fifth, with Spurs possessing a game in hand. With those sides facing one another on Sunday, Ten Hag’s men simply must take maximum points to have a realistic shot of UEFA Champions League qualification.
The Dutchman has so far failed to solve glaring problems at both ends of the pitch, with United’s 37 Premier League goals this term the fewest of any side currently in the top half of the table. It is also their worst tally after 27 games of a campaign since 2015-16 (36), and this is the latest stage of a season at which they have had a negative goal difference (-2) since 1989-90 (finished with -1).
Rasmus Højlund – whose seven Premier League goals for United in 2023-24 have only been matched by Scott McTominay – is nearing a return after three games out with a muscle injury, but Saturday’s match could come too soon for him. Ten Hag revealed Rashford and Jonny Evans sustained knocks in the City game so must be assessed, but Harry Maguire could return. Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martínez, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Anthony Martial, Tyrell Malacia and Mason Mount also remain out.
In Højlund’s absence, United will lean on captain Bruno Fernandes, who has seven goal involvements in eight Premier League appearances against Everton (four goals, three assists), only recording more against Leeds United (eight). However, after scoring four goals in his first three matches versus the Toffees, the Portugal international has failed to net in his last five against them.
Behind Fernandes, a lack of midfield balance has contributed to United facing at least 20 shots in four of their last five Premier League games, with their average of 16.4 shots faced per game in 2023-24 their highest on record in a single campaign (since 2003-04).
Everton, though, may not be best placed to take advantage of United’s generosity. Their total of 41.6 expected goals (xG) is the 10th-highest figure in the Premier League this season, but only Sheffield United (22) and Burnley (25) have scored fewer than their 29 goals. Their xG underperformance of 12.6 is more than twice that of the next worst-performing attack, with Brentford netting 39 times from 44.4 xG for an underperformance of 5.4.
Everton’s wastefulness cost them once again last Saturday, with Sean Dyche’s men collapsing to a 3-1 defeat to West Ham after Beto had put them ahead early in the second half.
That result saw Everton miss another chance to put further distance between themselves and the relegation zone, and they are now winless in 10 Premier League games (five draws, five defeats). It’s the longest ongoing run of any side currently in the division, and the Toffees have only ever endured a longer streak in the competition between August and October 1994 (12 matches).
Having fired 21 shots at Alphonse Areola’s goal last week, Everton have attempted 20 or more shots in five home Premier League games this term, but they have lost three of those matches, including when they recorded 24 attempts in November’s reverse fixture against United, a 3-0 defeat.
With a team-high six Premier League goals this term, Abdoulaye Doucouré has often shouldered the attacking burden for Dyche’s men, though he last netted against Chelsea in December. Nevertheless, his return from injury has been a boost; since Dyche took the reins last February, Everton have won 36% of their league games when Doucouré has started (13/36), while failing to win any of their nine without him (three draws, six defeats).
As for the rest of Everton’s team news, Idrissa Gueye could return on Saturday after missing the West Ham game with a groin issue, with Arnaut Danjuma and Dele Alli Everton’s only long-term absentees. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s current 16-game goal drought is the longest of his Premier League career, and he may again have to settle for a place on the bench.
Manchester United vs Everton Head-to-Head
Man Utd’s 40 Premier League wins against Everton are the joint-most any team has managed against another in the competition’s history, with the Red Devils also beating Aston Villa 40 times.
Alejandro Garnacho’s spectacular overhead kick set them on their way to a 3-0 win in November’s return fixture at Goodison Park, with Rashford and Martial also on target.
Ten Hag’s men have won all three of their Premier League games against Everton since the start of last season, with United last winning four in a row against the Toffees between November 2006 and December 2007.
Everton have also won just one of their last 30 Premier League games at Old Trafford (eight draws, 21 defeats), triumphing 1-0 under Roberto Martínez in December 2013, against a United side managed by their former boss David Moyes.
Recent Form
United’s derby defeat to City was their 11th loss in 27 Premier League games this season (14 wins, two draws), with them only losing more in a single campaign in 2013-14 and 2021-22 (both 12).
They have also suffered back-to-back league defeats after going down 2-1 to Fulham in their last home game, last losing three in a row within a single season in December 2015 under Louis van Gaal.
Everton, meanwhile, are winless in their last six away games across all competitions (three draws, three defeats), after winning six of their previous seven (one defeat).
They have only scored once across their last four road trips, with that goal coming via Jarrad Branthwaite‘s fine strike in their 1-1 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion two weeks ago.
The fact that United have already lost eight times at Old Trafford this season across all competitions might inspire some hope among the travelling fans. The Red Devils last lost more home games in a single campaign in 1973-74 (nine).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Manchester United vs Everton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is not forecasting an end to Everton’s barren run on Saturday, with Man Utd winning 51.0% of our 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Everton pick up three points in 21.4% of scenarios, with 27.6% seeing the spoils shared.
The supercomputer’s season predictions, meanwhile, do not make for encouraging reading for United fans. Ten Hag’s team are now deemed more likely to finish in the bottom half of the table (2.5% chance) than in the top four (1.6%), finishing sixth in a league-high 39.9% of simulations.
Everton are relegated in just 4.4% of the supercomputer’s season simulations, though that figure will surely climb higher if their winless run continues for much longer.
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