The next step on Pep Guardiola’s road to back-to-back trebles is an FA Cup quarter-final clash with Newcastle. Will his team make it to Wembley? We look ahead to Saturday’s game with our Manchester City vs Newcastle prediction and preview.

Manchester City vs Newcastle Stats: The Quick Hits

  • Manchester City are predicted to reach the FA Cup semi-finals, beating Newcastle in 71.3% of match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer.
  • Newcastle knocked Man City out of the EFL Cup in September. The last team to eliminate them from both domestic cups in the same season was Tottenham in 1992-93.
  • Erling Haaland has scored eight FA Cup goals since joining Man City, with those strikers coming in just two different games – a hat-trick against Burnley in last season’s quarter-final and a five-goal haul versus Luton Town last month.

Match Preview

Manchester City face a fierce battle to retain their Premier League crown, with last week’s 1-1 draw with Liverpool keeping one of the most absorbing title races in the competition’s history wide open. Pep Guardiola’s quest for back-to-back trebles requires concentration on two other fronts, though, and he will look to plot a route to Wembley Stadium when his side host Newcastle United in Saturday’s FA Cup quarter-final.

A measure of revenge is also on the cards for the holders. Their hopes of one-upping last season’s treble with a quadruple in 2023-24 were ended at the first opportunity by Newcastle last September, with Alexander Isak’s goal firing the Magpies to a 1-0 win when the teams met in the third round of the EFL Cup.

Tottenham were the last team to eliminate City from both cups in one season, doing so back in 1992-93, while Newcastle also have a chance to complete a different kind of double on Saturday.

Having knocked Manchester United out of the EFL Cup in November, they could become the first side to eliminate the holders of both competitions in the same campaign since 1996-97, when Wimbledon achieved the feat.

City looked set to strike a huge blow in the title race last week, with Kevin De Bruyne assisting John Stones’ opener from a clever corner-kick routine. However, a thrilling game at Anfield turned on Nathan Aké’s misplaced back pass, as Ederson fouled Darwin Núñez and Alexis Mac Allister converted the resulting penalty. In a major blow for City, Ederson was injured in that incident and is expected to miss around four weeks, so Stefan Ortega will come in between the sticks on Saturday.

Erling Haaland endured a quiet outing against Liverpool and will be looking to return to the scoresheet here, though his record in the FA Cup is a peculiar one.

Since Haaland joined City from Borussia Dortmund in 2022, only Wrexham’s Paul Mullin (nine) has bettered the Norwegian’s tally of eight goals in the FA Cup proper. All eight of his goals were scored across just two games, though, with Haaland hitting a hat-trick against Burnley in last season’s quarter-final and netting five times against Luton Town in the last round this campaign.

Erling Haaland FA Cup record

Partner-in-crime De Bruyne registered four assists in City’s 6-2 rout of the Hatters, all of them for Haaland, and he has nine assists in his last five FA Cup appearances, one more than he managed in his first 23 outings in the competition for City. De Bruyne might be missing for this game, however, following the announcement that he’s not been considered for the upcoming Belgium squad following a slight groin injury.

Man City’s forwards will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing Newcastle’s backline, after the Magpies slipped to a 3-2 defeat to Chelsea in their most recent Premier League game on Monday. Since the start of November, Eddie Howe’s men have shipped 24 goals in nine away league games, losing seven of those contests, which does not bode well for a trip to the Etihad Stadium.

With Howe’s men losing ground in the race for European qualification and seeing Anthony Gordon join Harvey Barnes, Kieran Trippier, Nick Pope, Joelinton and Callum Wilson on a lengthy injury list, the FA Cup may represent their last chance to turn a turbulent season into a memorable one.

Newcastle’s ambitious owners have made bringing silverware to Tyneside a priority, with the Magpies last lifting a major domestic trophy back in 1955, when they beat City 3-1 in the FA Cup final as Jackie Milburn, Bobby Mitchell and George Hannah got on the scoresheet.

They advanced to the last eight via a penalty-shootout victory over Blackburn Rovers, with Martin Dúbravka the hero as he repelled Dominic Hyam’s decisive spot-kick. Dúbravka was forced into eight saves as City beat Newcastle 3-2 in the Premier League in January, and he may be busy again here.

Blackburn 1-1 Newcastle FA Cup

Since making his first Premier League start of the season on 7 December (a 3-0 loss to Everton), Dúbravka has made the most saves (59) of any goalkeeper in the competition. However, only Brentford’s Mark Flekken (31) has conceded more goals than Dúbravka’s 30 in that span, while he has a save percentage of 69.1% across all competitions in 2023-24, compared to Pope’s 77.7%.

With injuries continuing to bite at their attack, Newcastle may just need Miguel Almirón to turn in a big performance. The Paraguayan scored four goals in his first five FA Cup appearances but has since failed to net in six games in the competition, though he has supplied an assist in each of his last two.

Manchester City vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

This will be the fourth meeting between City and Newcastle this season. Though the Magpies won September’s EFL Cup tie, the Citizens did the Premier League double over them, winning 1-0 at the Etihad last August and 3-2 at St James’ Park in January.

Oscar Bobb scored a dramatic stoppage-time winner when the teams last met, with Bernardo Silva and De Bruyne also netting for Guardiola’s men.

Newcastle 2-3 Man City xG Race Chart

The clubs’ last FA Cup meeting came at this same stage in 2019-20, with De Bruyne again on target and Raheem Sterling also scoring in a 2-0 behind-closed-doors win for Guardiola’s men.

Newcastle have a dismal record at the Etihad overall, losing 15 of their last 16 away games against City across all competitions, including their last nine in a row. The exception was a 2-0 EFL Cup victory in October 2014.

Recent Form

Last week’s draw with Liverpool extended City’s unbeaten run to 21 games across all competitions. Guardiola’s side have recorded 18 victories in that span, with Crystal Palace (2-2) and Chelsea (1-1) the other teams to avoid defeat against them.

Newcastle, meanwhile, have only won one of their last five matches across all competitions in 90 minutes (two draws including a penalty-shootout win over Blackburn, and two defeats).

It’s fair to say the two teams have very different records when reaching this stage of the FA Cup.

Man City have progressed through their last six FA Cup quarter-final ties since a shock defeat to Wigan Athletic in 2013-14. They have reached the competition’s semi-finals in each of the last five seasons and could become the first team in history to do so in six successive campaigns.

Newcastle, meanwhile, have not reached the last four since 2004-05, having gone out in the quarter-finals twice since then – in 2005-06 and 2019-20.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on, here is the current Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Manchester City vs Newcastle Prediction

Manchester City vs Newcastle Prediction Opta

City are unbeaten in their last 38 games at the Etihad Stadium across all competitions, their last home loss coming against Brentford in their final game before the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

The Opta supercomputer is not forecasting much joy for Newcastle’s travelling fans on Saturday, with the hosts victorious in 71.3% of our 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off.

The likelihood of a draw – which would take the tie to extra time and potentially penalties – is rated at 16.3%, with the Magpies earning a famous victory in just 12.3% of scenarios.

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