A last-eight spot in the UEFA Champions League awaits for one team at Signal Iduna Park. We look ahead to the tie with our Dortmund vs PSV prediction and preview.

Dortmund vs PSV Stats: The Quick Hits

  • Borussia Dortmund are backed to progress to the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, defeating PSV in 45.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
  • PSV are winless in their last 16 away games against German sides (including GDR) in all competitions (D3 L13) 
  • Dortmund have progressed from all five knockout-stage ties when avoiding defeat away from home in the first leg.

Match Preview

A one-legged shootout will decide who makes the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals as Borussia Dortmund prepare to host PSV at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday after a 1-1 draw in the opening meeting between these two European hopefuls.

PSV 1-1 Dortmund Champions League xG Stats

PSV will be aiming to reach the last eight of UEFA’s top club competition for just a third time, previously managing to do so in 2004-05 and 2006-07, but have much to do when they return to the Bundesliga giants for another mouth-watering midweek clash.

It could have been worse for the Eredivisie side, though, if not for Luuk de Jong’s second-half penalty cancelling out Donyell Malen’s 24th-minute opener at the Philips Stadion towards the back end of February. With that much-needed equaliser, De Jong surpassed Ruud van Nistelrooy and became PSV’s top scorer in Champions League history with nine goals.

Including the old European Cup, only Romário (11) and Willy van der Kuijlen (10) scored more for the Dutch club than De Jong, who has helped PSV find the net from six of their last seven penalties in European competition, the club having failed from four in a row between February 2015 and September 2016 – including one miss from De Jong.

Malen also became the first Dutch player to score against a Dutch team in the knockout stages of the Champions League and the first in any round of the competition since Arjen Robben for Bayern Munich against PSV in October 2016, though the Dortmund forward will hope to be aided by the on-loan Jadon Sancho come Wednesday’s kick-off.

Manchester United outcast Sancho has been directly involved in eight goals in 11 home games for Dortmund in the competition (four goals, four assists), although this will be his first game for the German side at Signal Iduna Park in the competition since December 2020 against Lazio.

PSV’s Olivier Boscagli may be the key to counteracting Edin Terzic’s free-flowing attack, considering the centre-back won possession 14 times in the first leg; the most by a defender in a Champions League game this season. It was also the joint-most by a PSV defender in a single match in the competition – also 14 by Héctor Moreno in December 2016 against Rostov – since Opta began collecting such data in 2003-04.

Boscagli possession won vs Dortmund UCL first leg

PSV will be by no means pushovers for this enticing European clash either. The Eredivisie leaders – who defeated Go Ahead Eagles 1-0 on Friday through Sergiño Dest’s goal despite having Armando Obispo sent off late on – are unbeaten across their last six games in UEFA’s premier club tournament (W2 D4), their joint-longest such run in the competition after another six-match streak between October 1997 and September 1998. They are still unbeaten after 25 domestic matches in the Eredivisie, too.

Bosz’s midweek lineup will likely remain without versatile forward Noa Lang, Ismael Saibari and Joey Veerman, though Dortmund head coach Terzic has availability issues of his own. Sébastien Haller, Samuel Bamba and Guille Bueno are all still struggling with injuries, while defender Nico Schlotterbeck is suspended from European action.

The German side coped with those mounting injury troubles on Saturday, though, as Dortmund defeated Werder Bremen 2-1 after goals from Sancho and Malen, despite Marcel Sabitzer being sent off before half-time in their final Bundesliga clash before this Champions League last-16 decider.

Dortmund vs PSV Head-to-Head

Dortmund are unbeaten in all three of their European meetings with PSV (W1 D2), with their only previous home game finishing 1-1 in October 2002 – the same score as the first leg between these two sides this season.

There are bad omens for the visitors, too, considering PSV are winless in their last 16 away games against German sides (including GDR) in all competitions (D3 L13) since beating Eintracht Braunschweig way back in December 1977.

The Dutch club have lost five of their six such games in the Champions League, with the exception the aforementioned draw with BVB back in 2022.

Recent Form

When avoiding defeat away from home in the first leg of a Champions League knockout stage tie, Dortmund have always progressed to the next round.

The opening 1-1 draw in Eindhoven in the first leg was the sixth such instance of this in the knockout rounds of the competition and PSV’s form at this stage makes for underwhelming reading as well.

Since beating Monaco 2-0 in the 2004-05 round of 16, PSV are winless in their last six away games in the Champions League knockout rounds (D3 L3). They’ve been eliminated on each of the previous three occasions they’ve failed to win the first leg of such a tie at home.

By contrast, Dortmund are unbeaten in their last eight Champions League home games (W4 D4), though their last such defeat was in their last match against Dutch opponents (3-1 against Ajax). They last had a longer run without defeat at home in the competition between December 1996 and September 1999 (nine).

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the current Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Dortmund vs PSV Prediction

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Prediction

Dortmund rank as the ninth favourites to win the Champions League in Opta’s tournament predictions, lifting the trophy in 2.9% of simulations – but a tough task awaits to make it through to the next round first.

Terzic’s men overcome PSV in 45.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer, compared to an away win in 30.0%.

A draw would send this tie to extra time on Wednesday, with that result forecast 24.6% of the time, while PSV’s chances of quarter-final progression sit at 41.9%, some way behind Dortmund’s of 58.1% for reaching the last eight.

Dortmund vs PSV UCL Squads

Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Ian Maatsen, Lion Semic, Özcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.

Head Coach: Edin Terzić

PSV: Walter Benítez, Joël Drommel, Boy Waterman, Shurandy Sambo, Jordan Teze, Armando Obispo, André Ramalho, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Sergiño Dest, Mauro Júnior, Jaden De Guzman, Conrad Egan-Riley, Olivier Boscagli, Patrick van Aanholt, Malik Tillman, Guus Til, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Tygo Land, Noa Lang, Luuk de Jong, Ricardo Pepi, Hirving Lozano, Richard Ledezma, Ismael Saibari, Tay Abed.

Head Coach: Peter Bosz

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on XInstagramTikTok and Facebook.