Can the Blues ease the pressure on Mauricio Pochettino? We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League action with our Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Stats: Quick Hits
- Of 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Chelsea beat Newcastle United 43.1% of the time, with the Magpies earning three points in 29.1%.
- Chelsea haven’t lost a home Premier League game in the month of March since 2001 (4-2 versus Sunderland), going unbeaten through their last 37 such matches (31 wins, six draws).
- Anthony Gordon has scored in Newcastle’s last two Premier League meetings with Chelsea; no Magpies player has ever netted in three in a row against the Blues in the competition.
Match Preview
Chelsea aren’t exactly a club known for giving managers time, and patience – at least within the Blues’ fanbase – is starting to wear thin with Mauricio Pochettino. Supporters called for the Argentine’s exit during their 2-2 draw with Brentford on Matchday 27, which saw them lose further ground in the battle for European qualification, and Monday’s clash with Newcastle United threatens to be another tricky encounter.
Only a late header from Axel Disasi prevented Chelsea from succumbing to another demoralising defeat at the Gtech Community Stadium after goals from Mads Roerslev and Yoane Wissa put the Bees 2-1 up. Pochettino’s side have now won just one of their last five Premier League matches (two draws, two defeats) and sit four points behind Newcastle ahead of their meeting.
Pochettino may feel he has been somewhat hard done by during his first season at Stamford Bridge; according to Opta’s expected points model, Chelsea’s underlying numbers have been good enough to put them sixth in the Premier League, only for rash finishing to let them down time and time again. Through the first 27 matchdays of the season, only Everton (-11.8) and Brentford (-6.0) underperformed their expected goals (xG) figures by a greater margin than Chelsea (-5.8).
Although Nicolas Jackson scored his eighth league goal of the season at Brentford, Cole Palmer has often been the player to shoulder the attacking threat for Pochettino’s Blues. He has 17 goal involvements in the Premier League this term, all of which have come in his last 18 appearances (10 goals, seven assists).
Palmer’s assist for Disasi’s equaliser at Brentford saw him surpass Arjen Robben (16 in 2004-05) for the most goal contributions in a single Premier League season for Chelsea while aged 21 or younger.
A lengthy injury list has not helped Pochettino’s cause this season, and Chelsea suffered another blow this week with the news Ben Chilwell must see a specialist after sustaining a knee injury.
They have long struggled to get Chilwell and Reece James – who remains out with a hamstring problem – on the pitch together. Since Chilwell arrived from Leicester City in 2020, Chelsea have played just 27 Premier League games with both players in their starting lineup, winning 48.1% of those, compared to 113 without at least one of the duo, when their win rate drops to 42.5%.
Levi Colwill is also out with a toe injury, leaving Chelsea particularly short at the back, with Thiago Silva, Marc Cucurella and Benoît Badiashile all facing late fitness tests ahead of Monday’s game.
This will be the fourth successive Premier League meeting between Chelsea and Newcastle to begin with the Blues beneath the Magpies in the table, the longest such run since their first eight contests in the competition between 1993 and 1997. Across the last three seasons, Chelsea have won just 11% of their 27 league games against teams above them in the table (three wins, eight draws, 16 defeats).
Newcastle have the chance to take points off a fellow European hopeful – emphasis very much on hopeful with regards to Chelsea – for the second matchday in a row, having thrashed Wolves 3-0 at St James’ Park last time out. Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Tino Livramento were on target against Gary O’Neil’s injury-hit team as the Magpies claimed their first home win of 2024.
Like Chelsea, Eddie Howe’s side have been heavily impacted by injuries this season, yet their firepower has remained undiminished; Newcastle have scored 57 Premier League goals this term, 16 more than they managed in their first 27 games of 2022-23 (41). However, a porous defence has surely put UEFA Champions League qualification beyond their reach, with their 45 goals conceded 19 more than at the same stage last season.
Indeed, Newcastle have certainly reclaimed the moniker of ‘the entertainers’ in 2023-24, with their Premier League matches averaging 3.8 goals per game; only Liverpool in 2013-14 (151 In 38 matches, four per game) have ever recorded a higher ratio in a single campaign.
With Callum Wilson and Joelinton among Newcastle’s long-term absentees, Gordon will have a key role to play again on Monday, and he has scored in the Magpies’ last two league games against Chelsea – November’s 4-1 win at St James’ Park and a 1-1 away draw on the final day of last season.
He could now become the first Newcastle player to score in three straight Premier League meetings with Chelsea, having recorded 15 goal involvements in his last 27 games in the competition (10 goals, five assists), five more than in his first 80 with Everton and the Magpies (seven goals, three assists). However, each of his last seven league goals have been scored at St James’ Park.
Newcastle will be without right-back Kieran Trippier after he suffered a calf injury against Wolves, meaning Livramento should start against the side that sold him to Southampton in 2021. Lewis Hall, meanwhile, is ineligible to face his parent club.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Having thrashed Chelsea 4-1 in November’s reverse fixture, Newcastle are targeting their first league double over the Blues since 1986-87.
Jamaal Lascelles joined Isak, Joelinton and Gordon on the scoresheet in that game as Chelsea were torn apart, with Blues captain James sent off for two bookable offences.
However, Chelsea have only lost one of their 28 all-time Premier League home games against Newcastle (20 wins, seven draws), suffering a 2-0 defeat under Roberto Di Matteo in May 2012.
In Howe, Newcastle do have a manager who enjoys facing Chelsea, winning four of his last seven Premier League meetings with them (two draws, one defeat) and managing a 43% win rate against the Blues overall in the competition (six wins from 14 games).
Among managers to face Chelsea in at least 10 Premier League games, only Kenny Dalglish (77%) and Pep Guardiola (56%) have better win rates against them.
Recent Form
Chelsea were beaten 4-2 by Wolves on their last Premier League outing at Stamford Bridge, but visiting teams don’t tend to fare too well against the Blues at this time of year.
Indeed, Chelsea have not lost a home Premier League game in the month of March since 2001, going unbeaten through 37 such matches (31 wins, six draws) since a 4-2 defeat to Sunderland.
If Newcastle wish to follow in the footsteps of their fierce rivals, they must put a halt to their own poor away form, having lost six of their last eight on the road in the Premier League (two wins).
Heading into Matchday 28, only Sheffield United (30) had conceded more goals on their travels in the Premier League this season than Newcastle (29), with the Magpies going 10 away league games without a clean sheet, shipping 25 goals during this run.
Chelsea have drawn their last two league games – against Manchester City and Brentford – despite opening the scoring. They last netted first and failed to win in three successive league matches in May 2016, under Guus Hiddink.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction
European qualification could be the only thing that keeps Pochettino in a job for next season, and Chelsea cannot afford to lose further ground to their rivals on Monday.
The Opta supercomputer makes them slight favourites, with the Blues victorious in 43.1% of our pre-match simulations. Newcastle took all three points in 29.1% of scenarios, with 27.8% being drawn.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, however, Chelsea are given just a 20.4% chance of claiming a top-seven finish, while Newcastle’s hopes are rated at 52%.
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