Unbeaten in five Premier League games, Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs are looking good for a top-four finish. We look ahead to their next match on Saturday with our Tottenham vs Wolves prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Wolves Stats: The Quick Hits
- Tottenham are backed to earn a sixth straight home Premier League win on Saturday, beating Wolves (19.1%) in 55.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have posted three away wins over Tottenham, with only Chelsea and Liverpool (four each) recording more in that span.
- Son Heung-min has 18 Premier League goal involvements this season, with those contributions being worth 16 points to Spurs. Mohamed Salah is the only player whose goal involvements have been worth more points to a top-flight side this term (18).
Match Preview
Matchday 24 in the Premier League felt like an important milestone in the race for UEFA Champions League football. Brennan Johnson’s 96th-minute winner against Brighton and Hove Albion lifted Tottenham into the top four last Saturday, a position they maintained as rivals Aston Villa were beaten by Manchester United the following day. Can Ange Postecoglou’s men maintain their momentum against Wolves next time out?
Questions were asked about Spurs’ game management after they conceded a 94th-minute equaliser in a 2-2 draw with Everton on MD 23, with their eight goals shipped in the 90th minute or later this term putting them just three shy of the single-season Premier League record set by Burnley in 2018-19 (11).
However, after Pape Sarr cancelled out Pascal Groß’s penalty last week, it was Tottenham’s turn to provide the late heroics against Brighton as Johnson steered Son Heung-min’s low cross home deep into stoppage time. That was Spurs’ third 90+-minute winner in the Premier League this season, with no team scoring more (level with Manchester United).
Johnson has now scored in two of his last three Premier League appearances, with both goals coming off the bench (also vs Brentford). The only previous Spurs player to score from three successive substitute appearances in the competition was Teddy Sheringham in 1994.
For Son, meanwhile, his late assist marked a triumphant return to club football following South Korea’s Asian Cup campaign. He now has nine goal involvements in his last eight Premier League appearances (four goals, five assists), and 18 in total in 2023-24 (12 goals, six assists).
Son is often Spurs’ man for the big occasion, and his 18 goal contributions have been worth 16 points to his team. Only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (18) has earned his team more points through goal involvements this campaign .
With Son back in the fold, things are looking positive for Spurs. They are hopeful of having Giovani Lo Celso available after over a month on the sidelines with a muscle injury, while fellow midfielder Yves Bissouma returned against former club Brighton. Manor Solomon and Ryan Sessegnon both remain out.
We witnessed one of the most dramatic finishes of the season when Tottenham last faced Wolves in November. Johnson’s early strike gave Spurs a lead they held until the 91st minute, only for late goals from Pablo Sarabia and Mario Lemina to complete a stunning turnaround at Molineux.
That was the eighth time a team had led a Premier League game going into the 90th minute and still lost, and half of those games have involved Tottenham (two wins, two defeats). It was also the longest a Premier League team has led in a game they have gone on to lose.
Gary O’Neil’s side would certainly take a repeat of that result as they look to respond to last week’s dismal 2-0 defeat to Brentford, a result that left them four points adrift of the top seven and a potential European spot.
Wolves’ tally of 17 shots in that game was their highest in a home Premier League match without scoring since October 2022 (21 vs Leicester City), with O’Neil’s side struggling to break down Brentford’s low block as Christian Nørgaard and Ivan Toney netted for the Bees.
Wolves also suffered a major blow in the first half as Matheus Cunha limped off with a hamstring issue. It has since been reported that he could be out for the season, which would be a problem for Wolves. The Brazilian has scored seven away Premier League goals this season, including a hat-trick in a thrilling 4-2 win at Chelsea. Only two Wolves players have ever scored more on the road in a single Premier League campaign: Steven Fletcher in 2011-12 (eight) and Raúl Jiménez in 2019-20 (nine).
Wolves will at least have Hwang Hee-chan available, with the forward sitting out the Brentford game after joining Son in returning from the Asian Cup. Hwang already has 10 Premier League goals this season, two more than he managed in his two previous campaigns combined (five in 2021-22, three in 2022-23).
Hwang’s goals have come from an expected goals (xG) tally of 5.96, giving him an overperformance of 4.04. Only two Premier League players have overperformed their underlying numbers by more this season, Diogo Jota (+4.91) and Son (+4.88). With Cunha being Wolves’ only injury concern, Sarabia and Jean Ricner-Bellegarde are competing to join Hwang and Pedro Neto in their forward line.
Tottenham vs Wolves Head-to-Head
Tottenham have found it tough against Wolves lately, losing three of their last four Premier League games against them, including their dramatic defeat in the reverse fixture.
Before that, Spurs also lost 1-0 to Julen Lopetegui’s Wolves last March as Adama Traoré volleyed in a late winner. Tottenham have never previously lost three successive league meetings with Wolves.
Wolves, meanwhile, are looking to complete their first league double over Tottenham since 2009-10, when Mick McCarthy’s men managed 1-0 wins at both Molineux and White Hart Lane.
Since their promotion back to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have won a further three away games against Tottenham, with only Chelsea and Liverpool (four apiece) managing more road victories over them in that span.
Wolves recently went 14 Premier League matches in London without a victory, but they have won their last two in the capital in convincing fashion, beating Brentford 4-1 in December and Chelsea 4-2 earlier this month. They last won three successive top-flight games in London in September 1979.
Recent Form
Only Liverpool (10) have won more Premier League home games this season than Tottenham (nine), with Postecoglou’s men winning each of their last five at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, having lost their previous three against Chelsea, Aston Villa and West Ham in November and December.
Spurs now have the chance to reach 10 wins in as few as 13 home matches from the start of a Premier League campaign for just the third time, after 2011-12 (first 13) and 2016-17 (first 12).
However, Wolves have won two of their last three away Premier League games, as many victories as they managed in their previous 17 (two wins, three draws, 12 defeats). They have netted eight times in their last three on the road, having only scored 10 goals in their previous 12.
Goals could be on the menu on Saturday, then, with Tottenham having scored in 36 successive Premier League matches. Only Arsenal, who netted in 55 straight between May 2001 and November 2002, have ever enjoyed a longer run in the competition, though the last team to shut Spurs out in the top flight was Wolves last March.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Tottenham vs Wolves Prediction
Tottenham have been irresistible on home soil of late, and the Opta supercomputer is on their side ahead of Saturday’s game.
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Spurs triumphed in 55.3% of scenarios, with Wolves given just a 19.4% chance of victory and the likelihood of a draw rated at 25.3%.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, Spurs are now given a 59.1% chance of a top four finish, finishing fourth in a league-high 51.3% of scenarios.
Wolves are only given a 9.2% chance of breaking into the top eight following their defeat to Brentford, with 11th (26.1%) their most common position in our season simulations.
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