With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.
Manchester City are defending champions and the team to beat, though it looks highly competitive around them, with almost half the division starting the campaign with realistic hopes of European qualification.
There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation at the bottom of the league table, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.
Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer will be making its match picks for every fixture over the course of what looks set to be an exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of a full weekend of Premier League football.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the league table, with just two points separating the top three teams in the standings.
The system enjoyed a strong round with its picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Arsenal, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Wolves all emerged triumphant. However, Manchester United’s surprise loss at home to Fulham ensured it was not a perfect slate of match predictions.
Matchday 27 will see seven fixtures take place on Saturday, with leaders Liverpool among the teams in action as they travel to play Nottingham Forest.
There is title race interest across all three days of action, as Man City host rivals Man Utd in a huge derby on Sunday, before in-form Arsenal travel to play struggling Sheffield United on Monday.
Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 27: The Quick Hits
- Manchester City are strong favourites to defeat Manchester United in Sunday’s crucial derby match at the Etihad Stadium.
- The supercomputer backs Arsenal and Liverpool to keep their respective title bids on track with victories in MD 27, with the Gunners being the most confident prediction of the week.
- Aston Villa are given the edge over Luton Town but they should not expect an easy trip to Kenilworth Road as their push for a top-four finish continues.
Brentford and Chelsea both find themselves lower in the Premier League table than they would have anticipated going into their London derby on Saturday. The Bees are 16th, just five points clear of the bottom three, while Chelsea are 11th as they look to bounce back from their EFL Cup final heartbreak. Brentford have been difficult opponents for Chelsea, who have won only one of the five Premier League games between the sides, which represents their worst win rate against any team they have played at least five times in the competition. Brentford have three straight clean sheets against Chelsea and emerged triumphant in three of the last four meetings.
The Blues, though, have fared better in London derbies of late. After winning four of their previous 16, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have now been victorious in four in a row and are now eyeing five straight derby successes for the first time since the 2020-21 campaign. If they are to do that, Cole Palmer will again be key. The former Man City youngster has 16 goal involvements in his last 17 EPL appearances for Chelsea, 10 of which were goals, and he’s scored three goals and added three assists in his last five London derbies.
Both teams need a win and the Opta supercomputer can barely split them, with Brentford at 34.0%, Chelsea at 37.1% and the draw a real threat at 28.9%, so a close contest is in store.
Everton got a significant boost when they were handed four Premier League points back this week and know a home win over West Ham would further improve their survival chances. The Hammers did earn a much-needed home win over Brentford, though, which put them back into contention for European qualification.
Despite their good news, Everton are winless in their last nine top-flight games, only once having a longer winless run (12 matches in 1994-95). They may need Dominic Calvert-Lewin to continue his fine record against West Ham – he has more goals (six) against them in all competitions than he has against any other opponent and scored the winner in October’s reverse fixture.
For the Hammers, their hat-trick hero against Brentford, Jarrod Bowen, needs three more goals to break the club’s Premier League scoring record in a single season. He has 14 already, with the record currently held by Paolo Di Canio (16 goals in 1999-00). This match is another which is rated incredibly tightly by our system. Everton are the slightest underdogs at 33.4% compared to 37.2% for West Ham and the draw is at 29.4%.
To continue that trend, Fulham (33.1%) at home to Brighton (37.6%) looks set to be another incredibly close EPL fixture taking place this weekend. Fulham have never lost to Brighton in seven Premier League meetings, but Roberto De Zerbi’s men did win their last away league game 5-0 at Sheffield United, the fifth time this season they have scored at least four goals in a game. Only Arsenal (seven) and Liverpool (six) have done so more often.
After some contrasting recent form, Newcastle (48.6%) have surprisingly slipped below Wolves (23.8%) in the Premier League table before the two teams do battle at St James’ Park. Newcastle have dropped to 10th in the standings having won just two of their last nine matches in the top flight, but will hope their FA Cup penalty shootout win over Blackburn Rovers can mark a turning point and they are still made favourites here by the Opta prediction model.
In-form Wolves have a realistic chance of getting something out of the game, with the draw rated at 27.6%. Pablo Sarabia – who netted the winner against Sheff Utd last week – is averaging a goal involvement every 122 minutes this season, having racked up three goals and three assists in 1,096 minutes. He is rivalling Steven Fletcher (one every 116 minutes in 2010-11) for the most productive season by a Wolves player in EPL history, with his contribution needed even more than ever this week with Hwang Hee-chan joining Matheus Cunha on the injury list.
League Cup winners and league leaders Liverpool have Man City breathing down their necks in the title race before their trip to play Nottingham Forest. Impressively, Forest are unbeaten in all six of the Premier League home matches they have played against Liverpool. It’s the most times Liverpool have ever visited a team in the competition without winning.
But the supercomputer thinks that run will end here, with the visitors handed a huge win probability of 64.0%, the second-highest prediction percentage of the week, with struggling Forest way down at 14.1%. That is because Liverpool have won seven of their last eight top-flight games, scoring at least three goals in each of their last six victories.
They are the highest scorers this season with 63 goals and Luis Díaz has produced a timely upturn in form while the likes of Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah have been unavailable.
Díaz has three goals and two assists in his last five top-flight games, more goal involvements than he had managed in his 25 previous appearances combined.
Having not played last week, Tottenham suddenly have a five-point gap to fill behind Aston Villa in the race for a UEFA Champions League spot. They are at home against Crystal Palace, who made an impressive start to life under Oliver Glasner with a 3-0 win over Burnley last time out. Spurs love this fixture, with nine wins and two draws in their last 11 home clashes with Palace. Son Heung-min also enjoys facing Palace, with eight goals and two assists to his name against them, so he will hope to continue that trend by scoring his first goal since returning from the Asian Cup.
Palace have only managed one win in their last 18 London derbies and the system expects that streak to continue here, with Spurs given a 56.5% chance of victory and the visitors down at 18.5%.
The news of Everton’s four-point reprieve was a blow to Luton Town’s hopes of avoiding relegation, and after conceding six to Man City in the FA Cup they must now take on a revived Aston Villa team in the Saturday early evening clash.
Villa do not tend to have many problems against promoted clubs, with seven wins and one draw in their last eight such matches. Ollie Watkins has been flying this season. With 14 goals and 10 assists, the England forward has more goal involvements (24) than any other player.
But Luton are not to be discounted – they have scored a goal for 13 straight league matches and netted in all but one of their games at Kenilworth Road this season. That is why they are given a decent chance of getting something out of the game, with their win probability being 26.2%, the draw at 27.0% and Villa going in as favourites at 46.8%.
Time is running out for Burnley (35.0%) if they want to save their Premier League skin, with victory a must as they host Bournemouth (35.4%) on Sunday. At 29.6%, this is the most likely of the 10 fixtures to finish as a draw this week, but Vincent Kompany knows he needs more than that if his team are to stand any chance of a great escape. Some hope for Clarets fans: Burnley have only suffered one defeat in 14 previous home league meetings with Bournemouth, winning seven, and the Cherries come into the game on a seven-match winless run.
Man City versus Man Utd is the standout fixture of the week. A win for Pep Guardiola’s men is given a 61.9% chance, the highest figure given to any home team this week, leaving the visitors with only a faint hope of springing an upset.
At a 15.0% win probability, Erik ten Hag would likely be glad to take a draw if it was offered to him ahead of kick-off, with that chance significantly better at 23.1%. United have shipped 10 goals in losing on their last two trips to the Etihad and, with 10 defeats already this season, they are closing in on their worst figure for losses in a single EPL campaign (two previous seasons with 12 defeats).
Erling Haaland loves playing these derbies and, having scored an astonishing five goals against Luton in the cup, comes into this fixture knowing he has scored five times against Man Utd in total – his joint-best record against an EPL opponent. Despite only being in his second season with Man City, only Sergio Agüero (eight) has scored more Premier League derby goals for City than Haaland.
If United are to upset the odds, they will need an inspirational performance from captain Bruno Fernandes. The attacking midfielder is set to make his 150th Premier League appearance in this match and has been an impressive creative force again, setting up more chances (74) than any other player in 2023-24. But that play is not translating to as many goals or assists as usual – his rate of one goal involvement every 281 minutes this term is the lowest he has recorded across any of his five campaigns in England.
Struggling Sheffield United are at home against rampant Arsenal on Monday night as MD 27 draws to a close. There are some alarming statistics for Blades fans to digest. Arsenal have won all six of their Premier League games in 2024 by an aggregate score of 25-3, while Chris Wilder’s hosts have kept just one clean sheet in this season, with their 66 goals conceded the worst number seen after 26 games in a top-flight campaign for 60 years.
Sheff Utd have lost 5-0 against Aston Villa and 5-0 against Brighton in their last two Premier League home games, while Arsenal have won 6-0 at West Ham and 5-0 at Burnley in their last two away fixtures, so anything other than an away win would be an almighty shock. That is reflected in our predictive model’s figures of 70.0% for an Arsenal win, its most confident selection across this weekend’s 10 games, with Sheff Utd way down at 10.2%.