Just one point and one place separates the teams before this key Premier League contest. We look ahead to the game with our data-powered Newcastle vs Wolves prediction and preview.

Newcastle vs Wolves: Quick Hits

  • Newcastle United (48.6%) go into this Premier League match as favourites to defeat Wolves (23.8%) with the Opta supercomputer.
  • Both teams have scored in 16 of the 17 Premier League meetings between the sides, so goals are likely to be on the menu at St James’ Park.
  • The two teams come into the game with only one point and one position separating them in the league table, after Wolves’ fine recent run saw them overtake Eddie Howe’s men.

Match Preview

Both teams will have a spring in their step ahead of what looks set to be an interesting Premier League contest on Saturday.

Newcastle come into the match after winning Tuesday’s dramatic FA Cup tie against Championship side Blackburn Rovers on penalties, while Wolves saw off Brighton a day later to join the Magpies in the last eight.

Cup progression was just the boost Howe’s side needed going into a run-in where they desperately need to turn their league fortunes around.

With a repeat of last season’s superb fourth-place finish now likely beyond them, a push to qualify for the UEFA Europa League still looks possible – but only if they can swiftly improve their recent results.

Newcastle have only won two of their last nine Premier League games and were thumped 4-1 away to Arsenal last time out in the top flight. Their last league clean sheet, meanwhile, was back on December 16 against Fulham, although their penalty shootout win after a 1-1 draw at Ewood Park on Tuesday will have massively lifted the mood going into this clash.

Newcastle were on a formidable run of home form not too long ago, winning seven in a row with victories over the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United prior to the festive period.

But they have since recorded just two points in four matches at St James Park, a sequence that included some seemingly winnable games against Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Bournemouth.

The recent struggles have seen Newcastle slip down to 10th, and they have been impressively usurped by Wolves, who are one point and one place better off going into this game.

Wolves have claimed notable scalps at Molineux this season, including an early season win over champions Manchester City. But they have hit even greater heights of late, adding some impressive away results to their record with victories at Brentford, Chelsea and Tottenham.

With Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha combining for 19 Premier League goals, Pedro Neto remaining one of the league’s top creative forces and Pablo Sarabia finding form, there has often been a formidable look to Wolves in recent months.

However, their 1-0 win over Sheffield United last weekend was not entirely convincing and, more worryingly, they now look likely to face Newcastle without Hwang, who came off with an injury against Brighton on Wednesday, while Cunha is already ruled out.

And Wolves would be wrong to look too closely at Newcastle’s recent results. Howe’s men are traditionally strong at home, only losing twice in front of their own fans last season as they sealed a famous return to the UEFA Champions League.

Injuries have played a huge part in the Magpies’ comparative struggles this year and, despite Callum Wilson, Nick Pope and Joelinton still being out, they now have Alexander Isak back and Anthony Gordon – who scored at Blackburn – enjoying the most productive campaign of his career to date.

Newcastle vs Wolves: Head-to-Head

Goals are likely to be on the menu in this fixture. Sixteen of the 17 Premier League matches played between the two teams so far have seen both teams score, while the only clean sheet recorded in this fixture was a 1-0 win for Newcastle in April 2022.

There were plenty of goals in October’s reverse fixture at Molineux, which ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw. Wilson twice put the visitors into the lead but Mario Lemina scored a header for Wolves and Hwang made up for conceding a penalty by scoring a late equaliser.

Wolves 2-2 Newcastle Premier League xG

Hwang also scored the last time these two teams met at St James’ Park and has a total of four Premier League goals against Newcastle, which is more than he has netted against any other opponent in the competition, so if he is indeed ruled out once his injury has been assessed that will come as a major blow.

That Hwang goal was not enough to win last season’s encounter in March, as a late winner from substitute Miguel Almirón – to follow up on Isak’s opener – gave Newcastle a key 2-1 victory in what was ultimately a successful bid for a Champions League spot.

The win forms part of a run that has seen Newcastle lose just one of their eight Premier League home games against Wolves, who last triumphed in the north east in December 2018 when Rafael Benítez was in charge of the hosts.

There is not much to split the two teams, though, and draws have been a frequent outcome in these fixtures, with 11 of the 17 Premier League meetings finishing all square. That is the highest proportion of draws (65%) that has been seen in any fixture played at least 15 times in the competition.

Recent Form

Wolves certainly come into this match in better form, as part of a fine campaign overall. As well as beating Brighton 1-0 to reach the FA Cup quarter-finals on Wednesday, they have already won 11 league games this season, which is as many as they did across the whole of 2022-23.

They have six wins, one draw and just two defeats in their last nine top-flight matches, with only title contenders Man City (eight) and Liverpool (seven) recording more wins since Wolves defeated Chelsea on Christmas Eve.

Wolves’ away results have also picked up, with three wins and one draw in their last four on the road, which is as many victories as they had recorded in their previous 20 such games. This match gives them the opportunity to win three consecutive away Premier League fixtures for the first time in two years.

Newcastle’s form has been up and down throughout the campaign, but one thing their matches have not been is boring. As well as some thrilling battles in the EFL Cup and FA Cup, their 26 Premier League games have seen an astonishing 99 goals scored, and there have been four or more goals in eight consecutive Newcastle matches in the Premier League.

If there are also four or more goals in this one, it will match the longest-ever run in the competition (nine games involving Liverpool in 2021).

Conceding goals has been a concern for Howe of late. Goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka was the hero against Blackburn, but Newcastle have conceded 23 times in eight matches, with only Brentford (24) shipping more in the Premier League since Christmas, so defensive improvement is a must, especially with first-choice shot stopper Pope out.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Newcastle vs Wolves Prediction

Newcastle vs Wolves prediction Opta

Despite the differences in recent form between the two teams, it is Newcastle who are backed for victory in this match by the Opta supercomputer.

With home advantage, Newcastle are handed a win probability of 48.6% by the Opta prediction model.

That percentage is not overwhelming and implies visitors Wolves still have a realistic chance of getting something out of the game. They are given a 23.8% chance of victory, with another draw in this fixture not to be discounted at 27.6%.

Newcastle still hope to revive a push for European qualification. Their most likely finishing position as things stand in our season projections is seventh, which they achieve in 20.2% of simulations, and it looks safe to say they will end up between sixth and 10th, a range that occurs in 82.3% of scenarios.

Having completely eradicated the chance of being relegated, Wolves have already exceeded expectations this season. They were given a 16.5% likelihood of dropping to the Championship before a ball had been kicked in 2023-24, but now have far greater aspirations than just avoiding a relegation scrap.

This could be a magnificent campaign for Gary O’Neil’s men. As well as being three matches away from FA Cup glory, Wolves are more likely than not to achieve a top-10 berth (65.9%) and have a 27.2% chance of finishing in the top eight as things stand.

They even have a 4.6% shot at surging into the top six, but such a feat would require them to pull off some more surprise results. If they can find a way to upset the odds and win this one despite the injuries to their two star forwards, that would certainly fit the bill.

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