We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League action at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Burnley prediction and preview. How will the leaders respond to last Sunday’s defeat to Arsenal?
Liverpool vs Burnley Stats: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool beat Burnley in 71.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, with the Clarets only victorious in 9.5% of scenarios.
- Liverpool saw their 15-game unbeaten run in the Premier League ended by Arsenal last week, but they have not lost in their last 23 league matches at Anfield (18 wins, five draws).
- Diogo Jota has seven goal involvements in his last seven league games (five goals, two assists) and has been involved in a goal in each of his last four league matches at Anfield.
Liverpool may enter Matchday 24 top of the Premier League table, but they will be glancing over their shoulders a little more nervously following last Sunday’s 3-1 defeat to Arsenal. With both the Gunners and Manchester City now breathing down their necks, Jürgen Klopp’s men need a response when they welcome struggling Burnley to Anfield on Saturday.
The Reds were off the pace from the first whistle at the Emirates Stadium, falling behind to Bukayo Saka’s early strike and being fortunate to go into half-time all square at 1-1, with Luis Díaz’s industry forcing a calamitous own goal from Gabriel Magalhães.
However, Liverpool ultimately got what they deserved from a game that saw them face their highest expected goals (xG) against total on record in the Premier League (3.5) and register their lowest xG in a league match this season (0.37). Uncharacteristic mistakes from Alisson and Virgil van Dijk cost them in the second half as Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard got on the scoresheet for the hosts, while Ibrahima Konaté’s late red card adds to Klopp’s selection headache for Saturday’s game.
Despite seeing their 15-game unbeaten run in the Premier League come to a halt, Liverpool will be confident of returning to winning ways at Anfield, where they are unbeaten in 23 league matches (18 wins, five draws) since losing 2-1 to Leeds United in October 2022.
They are hoping to be boosted by the return of Mohamed Salah soon, though this game could come too early following his hamstring injury sustained during Egypt’s disappointing Africa Cup of Nations campaign. Regardless of Salah’s availability, Klopp could opt to mix up his attack, with Darwin Núñez pushing for a recall after Cody Gakpo struggled against Arsenal.
Núñez is always a whirlwind of activity, attempting more shots (73) than any other Premier League player this season, while Salah (33) is the only player in the division to better Núñez’s 32 attempts on target. The Uruguayan will be hoping to avoid hitting the woodwork, though, having done so nine times in the Premier League this season, at least six more than any other player.
One man who is likely to keep his place is Diogo Jota, who has seven goal involvements in his last seven Premier League games (five goals, two assists), including a goal against Burnley in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day. He has also been involved in a goal in each of his last four league matches at Anfield, netting against Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Chelsea, and recording an assist against Newcastle United.
Liverpool must assess the fitness of Dominik Szoboszlai, who missed last week’s game with a hamstring issue, while they will definitely be without the suspended Konaté and long-term absentee Joël Matip. Joe Gomez and Jarell Quansah are competing to start at centre-back, with Andy Robertson eyeing a return to the lineup if Gomez is shifted infield from left-back.
Burnley are the side tasked with breaching the Anfield fortress and facing a likely angry Liverpool. With seven points separating the Clarets from 17th-placed Luton Town, they are running out of time to mount a serious bid for survival. However, Vincent Kompany’s men did give themselves something to build on last week, recovering from two goals down to clinch a 2-2 draw against Fulham.
Chelsea loanee David Datro Fofana was Burnley’s hero, netting twice after coming off the bench for his home debut. He has three goal involvements in just two league appearances for Kompany’s men (two goals, one assist), a tally only bettered by three other Clarets players this season (Lyle Foster – 7; Zeki Amdouni – 5; Wilson Odobert – 4).
Burnley have attempted to preserve the patient, possession-based style of football in the Premier League that saw them run away with the Championship title last season, but Saturday’s game may call for a more pragmatic approach.
James Trafford has made more passes (1,067) and more successful passes (694) than any other Premier League goalkeeper this season. The fact he has played more passes than any of his Burnley teammates, though, could be cause for concern for a side in desperate need of goals.
Indeed, a lack of a penetration has been a key theme for Burnley, whose total of 15.8 xG from open play is the second-lowest figure in the Premier League this season, worse than everyone but Sheffield United (14.1). Burnley have also scored a league-high 29% (7/24) of their goals from outside the box this campaign, but no side has conceded fewer goals from outside the penalty area than Liverpool (one).
In terms of team news for the visitors, defensive trio Jordan Beyer, Hannes Delcroix and Charlie Taylor all missed the Fulham game with slight knocks but have a chance of making the trip to Merseyside.
Liverpool vs Burnley Head-to-Head
Liverpool have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against Burnley (one draw, one defeat), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 8-0.
They took the reverse fixture by a 2-0 scoreline on Boxing Day, with Núñez and Jota on target at Turf Moor.
Burnley have only won one of their last nine away league games against the Reds, drawing two and losing six. However, that victory – a 1-0 triumph in January 2021 – was a memorable one as an Ashley Barnes penalty ended Liverpool’s 68-game unbeaten run at Anfield in the Premier League.
The Clarets, however, have not won any of their last 11 Premier League games against teams starting the day top of the table (five draws, six losses). Liverpool, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last six against teams starting the day inside the relegation zone (four wins, two draws), though they did lose four of their previous six such matches before this run (two wins).
Burnley’s struggles at Turf Moor have been well-documented, and they have actually won a Premier League-high 62% of their points on the road this season (8/13).
However, Kompany’s men have only won one of their last eight away league games (one draw, six defeats), beating Fulham 2-0 at Craven Cottage in December.
Across all competitions, Burnley are winless in six games since that triumph in west London, recording two draws and four defeats. Liverpool, meanwhile, have won their last four home games overall, scoring four or more goals in three of those matches (4-2 vs Newcastle, 5-2 vs Norwich City and 4-1 vs Chelsea), hitting the net 15 times overall during that run.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction
Liverpool are always heavily fancied at home and it’s no different this weekend, with the Opta supercomputer giving the Reds a 71.1% chance of victory.
Only Man City (74.3% at home to Everton) are assigned a higher win probability on MD 24. Burnley took three points in just 9.5% of our pre-match simulations, with 19.4% finishing level.
Liverpool were the major losers in the title race last weekend, with their defeat at the Emirates seeing their title chances fall by 15.3% in the supercomputer’s latest season predictions. The Reds’ title hopes now stand at 26.1%, compared to 66.2% for City and 7.4% for Arsenal.
Burnley, meanwhile, need a minor miracle to preserve their Premier League status, with the Clarets being relegated in 96.4% of the supercomputer’s season simulations, up by 1.1% from MD 23 despite their fightback against Fulham.