Hot on the tails of Liverpool and Manchester City in the title race, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners will be searching for more away-day success on Saturday. We look ahead to the Premier League clash at Turf Moor with our Burnley vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Burnley vs Arsenal Stats: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are the favourites to beat Burnley, with the Opta supercomputer predicting an away win in 56% of pre-match simulations.
- Burnley are yet to win a Premier League game this season against a side starting the day in the top half of the table.
- Arsenal are one of only two sides with a 100% Premier League record in 2024 so far, winning all four games and scoring 16 goals.
Match Preview
After blowing the Premier League title race wide open with victory over Liverpool and humiliating West Ham last time out, Arsenal will be looking to send another warning to fellow top-flight contenders when they visit struggling Burnley at Turf Moor on Saturday.
Mikel Arteta’s side overcame Jürgen Klopp’s Reds 3-1 before smashing West Ham 6-0 at London Stadium last Sunday. That victory saw Arsenal record their joint-biggest margin of victory in an away league match and their first such win by six goals since December 1935 against Aston Villa (7-1). It moved the Gunners within two points of league-leading Liverpool and level with second-placed Manchester City – who have played a game fewer – in the league table heading into Matchday 25.
Declan Rice scored one and assisted another two against his former employers, with Bukayo Saka (2), William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães and Leandro Trossard also on target in the London derby thrashing. The win at London Stadium saw Arsenal further display their strength at set pieces. They’ve scored the most goals from corners of any team in the Premier League this season (11), with each of the last three being headers from centre-backs (two from Gabriel and one from Saliba).
With his two goals last weekend, Saka became the fifth-youngest player to score 50 goals for Arsenal – aged 22 years and 159 days. In all competitions, Saka has 70 goals and assists combined since the start of the 2021-22 season (40 goals, 30 assists), with Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah the only Premier League player to match that output during the same period.
Though Saka took the credit for his goal-scoring prowess at London Stadium, Martin Ødegaard also assisted twice – only Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has created more Premier League chances this season than the Arsenal captain and Saka (61 each).
Across his career, Ødegaard has created an opportunity every 37 minutes for his teammates in the Premier League; the only two Arsenal players (minimum 90 minutes played) with a better minutes-per-chance created ratio are Mesut Özil (27) and Cesc Fàbregas (32) since Opta began collecting such data in 2003-04.
Aside from Arteta’s wealth of attacking riches, Arsenal’s lineup for Saturday’s kick-off could be boosted by numerous returning stars. Gabriel Jesus, Fábio Vieira, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Emile Smith Rowe and Oleksandr Zinchenko could all make comebacks, though Jurriën Timber and Thomas Partey remain out injured.
As for the out-of-form hosts, Burnley manager Vincent Kompany will be fearing an immediate return to the Championship as his side sit 19th in the league table, some seven points adrift of safety and 17th-placed Luton Town, who still have a game in hand heading into MD 25.
Burnley were defeated 3-1 against Liverpool at Anfield last Saturday, falling to second-half goals from Luis Díaz and Darwin Núñez after Dara O’Shea had cancelled out Diogo Jota’s opener on MD 24. That defeat saw the Clarets concede their 50th goal in their 24th Premier League game this season; it’s the earliest into a league season they’ve shipped as many goals since 1932-33 (23rd game, second tier) and earliest in the top flight since 1929-30 (also 24th match).
Although a positive for O’Shea against Liverpool, Burnley will have added concern considering only forwards Lyle Foster (seven) and Zeki Amdouni (five) have been involved in more Premier League goals for Kompany’s men this season than the Irish defender’s four (one goal, three assists).
There’s not much positive news on the injury front for Kompany either, with Foster potentially unavailable due to a knock, while Jordan Beyer, Luca Koleosho and Nathan Redmond remain as longer-term absentees. However, ever-reliant English defender Charlie Taylor could return from a should injury if he passes a late fitness test. Kompany will be serving a touchline ban after his yellow card at Anfield last week.
Burnley vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Burnley have won just one of their 17 Premier League games against Arsenal (D4 L12), with that victory coming at the Emirates Stadium in December 2020.
The Clarets have scored just nine goals in those 17 top-flight games against Arsenal, never managing to find the net more than once in a single match. It’s the most one side has faced another in the competition without ever netting multiple goals.
Kompany’s men were 3-1 losers in the reverse fixture this season, too, as Saliba and Zinchenko were on target after Josh Brownhill cancelled out Trossard’s opening goal at the Emirates back in November.
The Gunners are also unbeaten in their last 10 away league games against Burnley (W5 D5), with eight of these coming in the Premier League. Only Chelsea have played away against a side more often without ever losing in the competition (nine, also against Burnley).
Recent Form
Arsenal are one of only two sides with a 100% Premier League record in 2024 so far, winning all four games – against West Ham, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace – while scoring 16 goals. It’s only the second time they’ve won their first four league games in a year, also doing so in 1935; they’ve never won their opening five league games in a calendar year.
The Gunners have scored 5+ goals in two games in 2024 already, Crystal Palace (5-0) and West Ham (6-0), as many times as they managed in the Premier League in 2023 overall (twice in 42 games). They haven’t done so in three games in one year since 2018 (three times).
In complete contrast to Arsenal’s form, Burnley have taken just five points in their 12 home Premier League matches this season (W1 D2 L9), the fewest of any side. The fewest home games into a season any team has reached 10 defeats is 13, by four different teams: Sunderland (2005-06), Huddersfield Town (2018-19), Sheffield United (2020-21) and Watford (2021-22).
Kompany’s side have also still not won a Premier League game this season against a side starting the day in the top half of the table. Of their nine games against teams in the top 10 on the morning of the game, the Clarets have drawn one and lost eight, conceding 24 goals.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backs Arsenal as the heavy favourites at Turf Moor, with the visitors winning 56.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to a Burnley triumph in just 18.3%.
A draw appears a more likely hope for Kompany’s side, who secured that unlikely result in 25.7% of data-led scenarios, although a point apiece will do neither team a favour at either end of the league table.
Despite impressive new-year returns, Arsenal’s title chances rank at just 9.4% – behind Man City (66.2%) and Liverpool (24.2%) – while only Sheffield United (97.9%) have a greater likelihood of relegation than Burnley’s 95.7% in Opta’s end-of-season simulation. They are ahead of Luton Town (47.3%), Nottingham Forest (29.2%) and Everton (17.2%) in the model’s relegation projections.
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