Two sides on different trajectories meet on Monday night, with Thomas Frank’s Bees spiralling downwards and Pep Guardiola’s men chasing another Premier League title. We look ahead to the clash with our Brentford vs Manchester City prediction and preview.
Brentford vs Manchester City Stats: The Quick Hits
- Manchester City are the heavy favourites to defeat Brentford, winning 57.2% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Man City have won their last three Premier League away games despite having trailed in each of them.
- Brentford could become the first side to win three consecutive top-flight meetings against a team managed by Pep Guardiola.
Match Preview
Manchester City will be looking to keep the pressure on Premier League leaders Liverpool when they visit Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium on Monday, armed with the fit-again Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland.
De Bruyne started for the first time since his four-month injury absence on Wednesday, assisting birthday boy Julián Álvarez’s second goal before Rodri – teed up by Phil Foden – added another in a convincing 3-1 victory over relegation-threatened Burnley at Etihad Stadium.
A quick-thinking free-kick routine, sliding through the middle for Álvarez to convert past former City goalkeeper James Trafford, took De Bruyne to 104 Premier League assists and saw him surpass Wayne Rooney (103) to become the outright third-highest assist provider in Premier League history – behind only Ryan Giggs (162) and Cesc Fàbregas (111).
Indeed, despite playing just 199 minutes across six appearances in all competitions this season, the Belgian maestro has been involved in five goals (one goal, four assists), averaging a goal involvement every 40 minutes so far this term. Since the start of last season, De Bruyne has provided 32 assists in all competitions, eight more than any other Premier League player – Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah his nearest challenger with 24.
Somehow, De Bruyne’s brilliance overshadowed the return of Haaland against Burnley on Matchday 22 as the world-class Norwegian talisman appeared from the bench after coming back from almost two months on the sidelines. His availability, coupled with the scintillating form of De Bruyne and Álvarez, will have Pep Guardiola excited as Man City – still with a game in hand – trail Jürgen Klopp’s Reds by five points at the Premier League summit.
As for the hosts, Ivan Toney’s return from an eight-month gambling ban could not have gone much better after the striker scored against both Nottingham Forest and Tottenham, although Brentford lost their MD 22 clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Toney has scored 14 goals in his last 22 Premier League games, netting in consecutive appearances in the competition for the first time since a run of four ending in January 2023.
Neal Maupay was also on the scoresheet, edging Brentford ahead on Wednesday before Destiny Udogie, Brennan Johnson and Richarlison sent Spurs roaring back into a lead that could not be overturned despite Toney’s second-half finish. While the Bees continue to fire up front, Thomas Frank’s men have lost eight of their last 10 in the competition (W2) and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Premier League games as they start to look at the wrong end of the league table.
Brentford fell to 15th after the Spurs defeat heading into Matchday 23, just four points clear of the relegation zone and 18th-placed Everton. Those struggles can be apportioned to two things: injuries and no Premier League side dropping more points than the Bees’ 23 from winning positions this term – as many such points as they’d lost in their previous two campaigns in the competition combined (eight in 2021-22, 15 last season).
Loanee Sergio Reguilón may return to Frank’s lineup after being unable to face his parent club Tottenham, though Yoane Wissa, Frank Onyeka and Saman Ghoddos are away at the Africa Cup of Nations, while key players Bryan Mbeumo and Rico Henry remain out injured.
Frank could at least welcome back Aaron Hickey and Kevin Schade for Monday’s late kick-off, albeit with the attacking burden still likely to fall on Toney, who has scored in each of his last four Premier League home games. He last netted in five consecutive home league games between January and March 2020 with Peterborough United.
Brentford vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Brentford did the Premier League double over Man City last season, beating them 2-1 away and 1-0 at home. The last team to win three in a row against Guardiola’s side was Liverpool (four between March 2015 and December 2016).
In fact, Brentford could etch their name onto an unlikely record here – Guardiola has never lost three consecutive top-flight meetings against an opponent before, something the Bees could achieve on Monday night.
There seems to be a strange stranglehold Brentford have over the blue side of Manchester, with Haaland also failing to score against the Bees – he has scored against all the other 20 Premier League sides he has faced. Among players to appear against at least three teams, only former Tottenham star Harry Kane has scored against every opponent he’s competed with (32/32).
This clash was initially scheduled for 23 December but moved for City’s FIFA Club World Cup commitments, meaning the 1-0 home win for Brentford last May was the most recent occasion these two teams met.
Recent Form
While Brentford and Man City appear to be on opposite trajectories in recent weeks, this promises to be an entertaining game, considering none of the Bees’ last eight league games at the Gtech Community Stadium have finished level (W4 L4).
Frank’s side have also kept just one clean sheet in 11 home top-flight outings this term – a 3-0 win over Burnley – but have also only failed to score once so far (in a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal).
City have lost two of their last four Premier League away games against London sides – losing to Arsenal this term and Brentford last campaign – as many as they had in their previous 16 trips to the capital (W12 D2).
However, Guardiola’s reigning English champions have won their last three Premier League away games overall despite having trailed in each of them – against Newcastle, Everton and Luton Town. Only Manchester United have ever won four consecutive away games despite falling behind in them all in the competition, doing so in six in a row between September and December 2020.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brentford vs Manchester City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer views this as the most one-sided MD 23 clash in the Premier League, where Man City win a massive 57.2% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Brentford only triumph in 18% despite doing the double over City last term, while the draw appears more likely in 24.8% of data-backed predictions.
Manchester City (54.1%) remain the favourites to win the title in Opta’s end-of-season simulations, ahead of Liverpool (42%). Brentford’s most likely league-table finish is 14th – one above their current position – but they still have a slim 5.4% chance of relegation.
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