We look ahead to Saturday’s west London derby with our Brentford vs Chelsea prediction and preview, as the Blues aim to bolster their European hopes.
Brentford vs Chelsea: The Quick Hits
- According to 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, this game is expected to be extremely tight, with Chelsea made slight favourites with a 37.1% win probability.
- Of the other Premier League matches this weekend, only Everton vs West Ham (29.4%) is more likely to be a draw than this game (28.9%).
- After their 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge in October, Brentford are looking to complete only their second league double over Chelsea, and first since 1938-39.
Match Preview
Having been labelled “blue million pound bottle jobs” by Gary Neville in the wake of their 1-0, extra-time defeat to Liverpool in the EFL Cup final, Chelsea might have wanted a convincing response when they faced Leeds United in the FA Cup on Wednesday.
Yet in the end, Mauricio Pochettino’s side had to rely on a last-gasp winner from Conor Gallagher to triumph 3-2 at Stamford Bridge and progress to the last eight.
In their previous Premier League outing, however, Chelsea did frustrate Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, drawing 1-1, with Rodri scoring late on for the champions. That followed on from a 3-1 win for Chelsea at Crystal Palace.
With Wolves and Newcastle United – the two teams immediately above them in the league table – facing each other on Saturday, Chelsea could move as high as ninth with a win, with European qualification reportedly vital if Pochettino is going to stand a chance of keeping his job beyond this season.
Brentford have won just one of their last six league matches, losing all of the other five, and after Everton had four points reinstated, the Bees find themselves in 16th place.
Ivan Toney’s return has boosted their chances of escaping the relegation battle, and Thomas Frank’s team beat Chelsea without their star striker earlier in the season.
Yet while Toney’s absence – and Bryan Mbeumo’s injury – has hurt them at the other end, it is in defence where Brentford have really struggled this season. They have conceded 48 goals in their 26 Premier League games so far this season, already two more than they shipped in the whole of 2022-23.
In fact, they have kept just one clean sheet in their 13 Premier League home games this campaign. Brentford have also lost four of their last five at home (W1), while their six home defeats overall this term is three times as many as they lost at the Gtech Community Stadium last season (two).
While Toney has scored four goals in his seven appearances since returning from his suspension, outperforming his 2.98 expected goals, Neal Maupay has arguably been Brentford’s standout attacker.
The striker, on loan from Everton, is arguably more renowned for winding the opposition up than he is any goalscoring prowess, but his tally of six league strikes trails only Mbeumo (seven) for the Bees.
All nine of Maupay’s Premier League goal involvements for Brentford this season have been in London (six goals, three assists), with six of those coming at the Gtech Community Stadium (four goals, two assists). The Frenchman assisted Mbeumo’s goal in the previous meeting between these teams back in October.
Chelsea’s issues have been well covered. Only two Premier League teams have underperformed their xG by more than the Blues (-5.26 – 42 goals from 47.26 xG) so far this season. Those two are Everton (-10.83 – 28 goals from 38.83 xG) and Brentford (-5.57 – 37 goals from 42.57 xG) so perhaps this is a game where we can expect plenty of missed chances.
Cole Palmer has been Chelsea’s standout performer. The former Manchester City youngster has been involved in 16 goals in his last 17 Premier League appearances for the Blues (10 goals, six assists). He has also had a hand in six goals in his last five London derbies in the competition (three goals, three assists).
Raheem Sterling, meanwhile, has yet to score or assist a league goal in four appearances against Brentford, the most games he has had against a side without registering a single goal involvement. He has only faced Manchester United (20 games, two assists) and Hull City (six games, one assist) more often without scoring than his four against the Bees.
Brentford vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Brentford have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League games against Chelsea – only against Man City (2021-2023) and Man Utd (2019-2021) have the Blues failed to score in four consecutive meetings in the competition.
Indeed, Chelsea have won just one of their five Premier League meetings with Brentford, losing three of their last four against the Bees (D1). It is their lowest win rate against any opponent they have faced 5+ times in the competition (20%).
The Bees have outscored the Blues 8-1 since they last lost to them, with that defeat coming in October 2021. And, after a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture, Brentford are looking to complete only their second ever league double over Chelsea, and first since 1938-39.
Chelsea had 17 shots against Brentford at the end of October, yet only got two on target, accumulating an xG of 2.03. The visitors had just seven attempts, but got five of those on target and accumulated 2.16 xG.
Recent Form
Brentford were unbeaten in their first four Premier League games this season (W1 D3) but have since lost 15 of their last 22. Since (and including) their first loss of the campaign, only bottom two sides Burnley and Sheffield United (16 each) have lost more.
That run has included five defeats in their last six top-flight matches, albeit four of those have come against Man City (twice), Tottenham and Liverpool. Brentford have conceded 15 goals in that run, scoring just six in return.
Chelsea have won each of their last four Premier League London derby matches, as many as they had in their previous 16 (D5 L7). They last won five in a row between January and May 2021.
For all their troubles, Chelsea have lost just two of their last seven league games. The last home game Brentford won was against Nottingham Forest in January.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction
It would not be a bad idea to expect a draw in this game, with the threat of such a result standing at 28.9%.
Chelsea are slightly favoured by Opta’s model, at 37.1%, whereas Brentford have a 34% likelihood of claiming three points.
According to our season prediction model, Chelsea are most likely to finish 10th – a place higher than they find themselves ahead of kick-off – with an 18.2% chance of doing so.
Brentford, meanwhile, are anticipated to stay clear of the relegation places and finish in 16th.
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