We look ahead to a game both sides will consider winnable in Group F with our Zambia vs Tanzania prediction and preview.
Zambia vs Tanzania: Pre-Match Facts
- The Opta supercomputer makes Zambia the favourites for this tie, giving them a 45.8% chance of taking all three points.
- This will be the first encounter between Zambia and Tanzania at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations.
- In all competitions, Zambia are unbeaten in their last four matches against Tanzania (W2 D2).
- Zambia have only lost one of their last 11 Africa Cup of Nations group stage matches (W3 D7), although six of their last seven have been draws (L1).
- Tanzania have lost six of their seven matches at the Africa Cup of Nations (D1), losing all four games across their last two editions (2019 and 2023). Among nations to play five or more games at AFCON, they have the highest losing percentage (86%).
- The two teams with the fewest shots on MD 1 of this year’s Africa Cup of Nations were Zambia (3) and Tanzania (2). They had a combined expected goals total of just 0.23 (0.2 for Zambia, 0.03 for Tanzania).
- Despite only mustering three shots on MD 1 against DR Congo, Zambia managed to avoid defeat in a 1-1 draw. It was the fewest shots attempted by a team who avoided defeat in a Africa Cup of Nations match since Algeria vs Senegal in the 2019 final (Algeria had one shot and won 1-0).
- Only 10 of Zambia’s first 50 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations ended in a draw – since then, they’ve drawn 11 out of 18 matches (W5 L2).
- Tanzania managed just two touches in Morocco’s box in their 3-0 defeat on MD 1 of this year’s AFCON, the fewest touches in the opposition box by a team in the group stages since Zimbabwe had one against Guinea in 2022.
- Although they suffered a 3-0 loss to Morocco, Tanzania were one of only five teams who had two different players complete 60+ passes on MD 1 of this year’s Africa Cup of Nations, with Ibrahim Hamad (63) and Bakari Mwamnyeto (60) doing so.
- Kings Kangwa scored Zambia’s goal in their 1-1 draw with DR Congo on MD 1 of this year’s Africa Cup of Nations. Only two Zambian players have scored in their first two games in an AFCON tournament: Jacob Mulenga (2010) and Emmanuel Mayuka (2012).
Match Preview
Zambia and Tanzania will bring the curtain down on Matchday 2 in Group F on Sunday, with both sides seeking their first win of the tournament. In fact, Tanzania are still looking for their first win in AFCON history, losing six and drawing one of the seven games they’ve played in the competition. Adel Amrouche’s side have shipped 3+ goals in four of these seven games, including a 3-0 defeat to Morocco on MD 1.
In truth, it was always going to be difficult for Tanzania to threaten the Atlas Lions, but it was alarming just how toothless they were going forwards. The Taifa Stars managed just two touches in Morocco’s box, their lowest tally in an Africa Cup of Nations game, while only Namibia (1) against Morocco in 2019, and Zimbabwe (1 against Guinea in 2022) have had fewer on record.
Zambia also struggled to generate much by way of a goal threat on MD 1. But despite only mustering three shots against DR Congo, they managed to escape with a 1-1 draw. We suppose that’s what can happen when one of your players scores from almost 40 yards out, as Kings Kangwa did in the first half. His effort is unsurprisingly the furthest goal scored at this year’s tournament, and it’s also the longest-distance goal by a Zambian since Opta began collecting such data in 2010.
The data doesn’t suggest we’ll get a lot of goals – these are the two teams who had the fewest shots on MD 1 after all – but perhaps each side will be able to cut loose a little more against weaker opposition.
Zambia vs Tanzania Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever encounter between Zambia and Tanzania at the Africa Cup of Nations.
In all competitions, Zambia are unbeaten in their last four matches against Tanzania (W2 D2). The two teams last met in Group D at the 2020 African Nations Championship, where Zambia ran out 2-0 winners.
Zambia vs Tanzania Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Zambia the favourites for this tie, giving them a 45.8% of taking all three points. Tanzania are given a 28.9% chance of causing an upset, while the draw is an outside shout at 25.3%.
In our overall tournament predictions, these two sides are our outsiders to progress from Group F. At the time of writing, Zambia have a 59.5% chance of qualifying from the group, behind DR Congo (63.2%) and Morocco (98.1%), while Tanzania have a faint 28.9% shot of reaching the last 16.
Zambia vs Tanzania Squads
Zambia: Toaster Nsabata, Lawrence Mulenga, Francis Mwansa, Stoppila Sunzu, Lubambo Musonda, Benson Sakala, Gift Mphande, Dominic Chanda, Tandi Mwape, Benedict Chepeshi, Frankie Musonda, Zephaniah Phiri, Emmanuel Banda, Roderick Kabwe, Kings Kangwa, Clatous Chama, Rally Bwalya, Lameck Banda, Frederick Mulambia, Kelvin Kampamba, Golden Mafwenta, Kelvin Kapumbu, Miguel Chaiwa, Fashion Sakala, Edward Chilufya, Patson Daka, Kennedy Musonda.
Coach: Avram Grant
Tanzania: Beno Kakolanya, Aishi Manula, Kwesi Kawawa, Dickson Job, Abdi Banda, Ibrahim Hamad, Abdulmalik Zakaria, Mohamed Hussein, Bakari Mwamnyeto, Miano van den Bos, Lusajo Mwaikenda, Haji Mnoga, Mudathir Yahya, Feisal Salum, Charles M’Mombwa, Novatus Miroshi, Sospeter Bajana, Himid Mao, Mohammed Sagaf, Mzamiru Yassin, Morice Abraham, Kibu Denis, Tarryn Allarakhia, Cyprian Kachwele, Mbwana Samatta, Simon Msuva, Ben Starkie.
Coach: Adel Amrouche
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our new football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.