Stat, Viz, Quiz is the weekly Opta Analyst football newsletter. Our latest edition includes numbers on Newcastle, Timo Werner and Manchester City.
It was FA Cup third round weekend in England, though it was slim on giant killings.
National League South side Maidstone United did reach the fourth round after beating League One Stevenage, with the team managed by former Wolves left-back George Elokobi setting up a tie against Ipswich Town.
The television people clearly thought a shock might arrive at the Stadium of Light in the Wear-Tyne derby between Sunderland and Newcastle United. It didn’t, but you can understand why they thought it might when you see the Magpies’ away form this season. Ahead of hosting Manchester City this weekend, we look at the vast difference between Newcastle’s home and away success.
Timo Werner appears to be heading back to the Premier League with Tottenham, so we’ve also glanced at the Germany international’s record from his time at Chelsea.
We also have our quiz, ‘Ask Opta’ and links to all kinds of data-driven goodness on the Opta Analyst website. How could anyone ever ask for more?
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STAT – Newcastle’s Home Delights and Away Frights
If you mash together the words ‘home’ and ‘away’, you get ‘howay’.
That has nothing to do with anything really, though it ties in nicely with our look at Newcastle this week.
Eddie Howe’s men had a tough-looking assignment against rivals Sunderland in the FA Cup, but their quality told as they ran out 3-0 winners at the home of the Black Cats, including a brace for Alexander Isak.
It was just Newcastle’s third away win of the season in 13 games in all competitions, their others being the 8-0 thrashing of Sheffield United in the Premier League and a 3-0 victory at Manchester United in the EFL Cup.
Just looking at Premier League games this season, Newcastle have the second-worst away record in the division (five points). Coincidentally, only the one team they have bested on the road this season, Sheffield United (two points), have a worse return from away games.
Perhaps they just need to learn to spread their goals out a bit more. Thanks to their eight against the Blades, they have actually scored more goals in away games (16) than Arsenal (15), though Mikel Arteta’s men have accrued 12 more points than them on the road.
However, Newcastle have kept St James’ Park, well, not quite a fortress, but still a tough place to visit.
In fact, they have the third-best home record in the Premier League this season, ahead of the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham and – though having played a game more – Man City, whom they host on Saturday.
With 24 of their 29 points so far coming at home, it should make them feel better about their chances against City, or alternatively, could put even more pressure on it.
Their 82.8% of points won at home this season is currently the fifth most by any team in a season in Premier League history, behind Burnley 2009-10 (26 of 30 – 86.7%), Leeds United 1992-93 (44 of 51 – 86.3%), Fulham 2005-06 (41 of 48 – 85.4%) and Coventry City 1999-2000 (37 of 44 – 84.1%).
If all else fails for Newcastle in away games, they could always try decorating their opponents’ stadium as if it’s their own… sorry Sunderland fans, too soon?
VIZ – Werner the Returner
It’s Timo time, again.
Tottenham are reportedly bringing Timo Werner back to the Premier League, presumably because they so enjoyed his first stint in England’s top flight.
Tongue removed from cheek, we think there’s a good chance Werner could be a shrewd move, especially in Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs setup.
However, there’s no denying Werner struggled to live up to his hype when he moved from RB Leipzig to Chelsea in 2020. In the Premier League he scored just 10 goals from shots worth 18.3 expected goals (xG), with his underperformance compared to his xG (8.3) the worst finishing record by any player in the competition over those two seasons (2020-21 and 2021-22).
It never quite clicked for Werner in England the first time around, albeit he was far from the only attacking player who struggled to make an impact at Stamford Bridge after a big-money move. As the viz above shows, though, his xG did spike near the end of his time in London, and he started well when back in Leipzig in 2022-23.
In his first spell at Leipzig, Werner scored 78 Bundesliga goals from an xG of 66.76, and in his second spell he managed 11 from 11.4 xG. He could end up being an interesting proposition in a Spurs team who like to attack at pace.
So, Spurs fans don’t need to fret and can just dream of how funny it will be if Werner ends up being a huge success with them instead of London rivals Chelsea.
QUIZ – FA Cup Queries
The magic of the cup is no match for our magic of the quiz (so say us, admittedly with some bias). Here’s five statty FA Cup third round questions for you to wrestle with. Answers at the bottom of the page.
1. At 39 years and 106 days, Chelsea’s Thiago Silva scored against Preston and became the oldest player to find the net for a Premier League club in the FA Cup since which former England striker did so in 2006?
2. Aston Villa’s 1-0 win at Middlesbrough was their first win in the FA Cup since a victory in a third-round replay in 2015-16, ending an eight-match losing streak in the competition. Which team – then of League Two – did they beat in that replay?
3. Among players with 5+ goal involvements since the start of last season in the FA Cup proper, which Leeds striker is the player with the best minutes per goal involvement (39 – three goals and three assists in 235 minutes).
4. Liverpool’s 2-0 win at Arsenal made it 12 out of the last 13 FA Cup third rounds where the Reds have advanced. Who are the only team to beat them at this stage in that time? Clue: It was in the 2018-19 season.
5. Diogo Dalot scored as Manchester United won 2-0 at Wigan Athletic on Monday. It was his first goal in the FA Cup since scoring in a 6-0 win at which team in January 2020? Clue: This League Two side are based just a tunnel away from one of United’s main rivals.
Ask Opta
This week’s question comes via X from Samuel (@blufferfish089) who asks: “My dad wanted to know this: since Pep Guardiola came to Man City, do they have the most 5-0 victories out of any team, and perhaps more interestingly, how does 5-0 compare to City’s other results in terms of frequency? (i.e: have they won 5-0 more than they’ve won 1-0?)”
Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at editors@theanalyst.com or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.
Answer:
Not wanting to disappoint Samuel’s dad, we had a look at Guardiola’s record at securing 5-0 wins.
Following their win by that very score against Huddersfield Town on Sunday, Manchester City have won by 5+ goals on 42 occasions under Guardiola, more than twice as many times as any other Premier League side since the Spaniard took over in 2016-17.
As for comparing it to any other score, a 5-0 win is the seventh most common scoreline for Man City since Pep’s arrival in all competitions. They have recorded such a margin of victory 24 times, which is not as often as they have won 1-0 (39 times).
City’s most common score under Guardiola is a 2-1 win (47 times), which is the fourth most common of any score in that time among Premier League teams in all competitions. Manchester United have won 1-0 50 times in that period, while Liverpool winning 2-0 has happened 49 times and Chelsea winning 2-1 has occurred 48 times.
Man City’s other most common scores have been 2-0 (43 times), 3-1 (42 times), 3-0 (37 times) and 1-1 (29 times).
They have, though, won 5-0 more often than they’ve won 4-0 (23 times), 4-1 (22 times), drawn 0-0 (17 times) or lost 1-0 (16 times).
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Quiz Answers
1. Teddy Sheringham (for West Ham against Blackburn aged 39y 301d)
2. Wycombe Wanderers
3. Patrick Bamford
4. Wolves
5. Tranmere Rovers
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