We look ahead to Monday’s AFCON 2023 last-16 tie at the Charles Konan Banny Stadium, Yamoussoukro with our Senegal vs Ivory Coast prediction and preview.
Senegal vs Ivory Coast: Pre-Match Facts
- It’s bad news for the host nation Ivory Coast, as the Opta supercomputer sees the most likely victor in this match being Senegal. They won inside 90 minutes across 53.5% of pre-game simulations.
- This is only the third meeting in the Africa Cup of Nations between Senegal and Ivory Coast, with the Elephants winning both games in 1965 (1-0, third-place play-off) and 1986 (1-0, group stage).
- Senegal and Ivory Coast met last year in the African Nations Championship group stage, with the Lions of Teranga winning 1-0 thanks to a goal from Moussa Ndiaye in what was the most recent meeting between the teams.
- Senegal are the only team with a 100% record in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, winning all three of their group games for the first time. The last team to win their first four games at an AFCON tournament were Algeria in 2019. They went on to win that edition.
- Ivory Coast have lost their last two Africa Cup of Nations games, as many as in their previous 19 games combined at the tournament (W9 D8). They haven’t lost three in a row since doing so between 1970 and 1974 and never at a single tournament.
- Senegal have kept 15 clean sheets in their last 21 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations, shipping just seven goals in that run. Their 15 shutouts is at least three more than any other team since the 2017 edition.
- Host nation Ivory Coast have lost two matches at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations – no host has ever lost three games at a single edition of AFCON.
- This will be the first time that the host nation has faced the reigning AFCON champions in a Africa Cup of Nations match since 2002, when hosts Mali lost 3-0 to Cameroon in that year’s semi-finals.
- Only Egypt (59) and Algeria (47) had more shots in the group stage than Ivory Coast (46), but only Tunisia (3.9%) had a worse shot conversion than the Elephants (4.4%).
- Senegal’s Sadio Mané has the most assists across the last two Africa Cup of Nations tournaments (4), assisting in two of their three games at this year’s edition. Similarly, only Sofiane Boufal (21) and former Liverpool teammate Mohamed Salah (21) have created more chances across the 2021 and 2023 tournaments than Mané (19).
- Despite playing just 117 minutes for Ivory Coast at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, only six players had more touches in the opposition box than Nicolas Pépé (16) in the group stage. He also attempted six take-ons inside the box, the most of any player.
The tie of the last 16 at AFCON 2023 will take place on Monday as hosts Ivory Coast face reigning champions Senegal as they battle it out for a place in the quarter-finals.
These two sides weren’t expected to meet this early in the tournament, with the Opta supercomputer rating them as the two favourites to win the title before a ball was kicked. Senegal were slight favourites to retain the crown at 12.8%, while Ivory Coast were just below on 12.1%.
Senegal did as well as expected in the group stage, winning Group C with ease as they cruised past Gambia, Cameroon and Guinea, securing top spot with nine points – the only nation to win all three group matches.
Nigeria were the only team to manage that in the last edition, but they exited the tournament in the following round following a shock defeat to Tunisia, a warning Senegal should heed. However, the last team to win their first four games of an AFCON tournament were Algeria in 2019, and they won the title.
Ivory Coast’s campaign started well enough on paper with a 2-0 win over Guinea-Bissau, but it was a meek performance against what turned out to be the group’s weakest side. A 1-0 loss to Nigeria followed before a shambolic, record-breaking 4-0 defeat to unfancied Equatorial Guinea on Matchday 3 left them on the brink of elimination.
They survived by the skin of their teeth as the lowest-ranked third-place finishers to qualify for the round of 16, but there was no surviving that defeat for coach Jean-Louis Gasset, who was promptly sacked. He’ll be replaced on the bench for this tie by assistant Emerse Faé, who will be hoping to work miracles to get his Ivorian side in shape to defeat arguably the best African team at this current time.
They’ll have to stop a Senegal side that have shared their goals around so far, with seven players in the squad scoring at least once across the three group games.
Senegal vs Ivory Coast Head-to-Head
Despite these two nations having such rich history in the Africa Cup of Nations, this will be only the third time they have met at the tournament and the first time since 1986.
That meeting 38 years ago saw Ivory Coast win 1-0 in the group stage, while they also defeated Senegal 1-0 in a third/fourth-place playoff match in the 1965 edition.
Senegal vs Ivory Coast Prediction
One of these giants of African football will exit the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations before the quarter-final stage, as hosts Ivory Coast meet Senegal in the round of 16 on Monday.
The Opta supercomputer is predicting a Senegal win, with the reigning AFCON champions winning the match inside 90 minutes in 53.5% of pre-game simulations.
Below are the current, up-to-date tournament projections for both Senegal and Ivory Coast by the Opta supercomputer:
Senegal vs Ivory Coast Squads
Senegal: Mory Diaw, Seny Dieng, Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Youssouf Sabaly, Ismail Jakobs, Formose Mendy, Abdoulaye N’Diaye, Abdou Diallo, Fodé Ballo-Touré, Abdoulaye Seck, Moussa Niakhaté, Krépin Diatta, Idrissa Gueye, Pathé Ciss, Cheikhou Kouyaté, Nampalys Mendy, Lamine Camara, Pape Gueye, Pape Sarr, Sadio Mané, Habib Diallo, Nicolas Jackson, Boulaye Dia, Ismaïla Sarr, Iliman Ndiaye, Abdallah Sima.
Coach: Aliou Cissé
Ivory Coast: Charles Folly, Yahia Fofana, Badra Ali Sangaré, Evan Ndicka, Wilfried Singo, Ousmane Diomande, Ismaël Diallo, Sèrge Aurier, Odilon Kossounou, Ghislain Konan, Willy-Arnaud Boly, Seko Fofana, Jean Seri, Franck Kessié, Idrissa Doumbia, Ibrahim Sangaré, Lazare Amani, Max Gradel, Jérémie Boga, Simon Adingra, Oumar Diakité, Jean-Philippe Krasso, Sébastien Haller, Jonathan Bamba, Christian Kouamé, Nicolas Pépé, Karim Konaté.
Coach: Emerse Faé