Pep Guardiola’s champions play their first Premier League game of 2024, with their title hopes having been boosted by others’ slip-ups. We look ahead to Saturday’s late kick-off with our Newcastle vs Manchester City prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Manchester City: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer is backing Manchester City to earn a third straight league win on Saturday, giving them a 55.2% chance of beating Newcastle United at St James’ Park.
- Man City have scored in each of their last 30 Premier League games against Newcastle, the longest scoring streak one side has had against another in the competition’s history.
- Phil Foden has been involved in seven goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances (four goals, three assists). Since Christmas, his nine open-play chances created are a competition-high tally.
Match Preview
It’s fair to say 2023 was a good year for Manchester City, and as Pep Guardiola’s treble winners approach their first Premier League game of 2024, it’s starting to feel like more success is around the corner this year. With City starting to click into gear, boosted by the return of key players and the missteps of their rivals, are out-of-form Newcastle United set for a difficult outing on Saturday?
City have been immaculate since their successful trip to the FIFA Club World Cup in Saudi Arabia, reeling off Premier League wins over Everton (3-1) and Sheffield United (2-0) before routing Huddersfield Town 5-0 in the FA Cup last Sunday.
Largely owing to Arsenal‘s recent drop-off, City’s chances of retaining their league title rose by 18% between 20 December and 3 January, according to the Opta supercomputer, and they are one of just three Premier League teams who have not lost any players to the Africa Cup of Nations or Asian Cup tournaments for the coming weeks.
Though the likes of Rodri, Ederson, Kyle Walker and Nathan Aké were rested, Guardiola did go strong for last week’s FA Cup third-round tie against the Terriers, and he was rewarded with a dominant win featuring a Phil Foden brace as well as goals from Julián Álvarez and Jérémy Doku.
Foden has also been in fine form in the Premier League, involved in seven goals in his last 10 appearances in the competition (four goals, three assists). Since Christmas, Foden leads all players in the league for chances created from open play (nine), and he produced a mesmerising performance in City’s last league meeting with Newcastle, creating seven open-play chances as his team triumphed 1-0 at home in August.
One huge positive from last week’s cup win was Kevin De Bruyne’s return from injury, as the Belgian laid on Doku’s goal on his first appearance in almost five months, recording his 30th assist across all competitions since the start of last season. Despite De Bruyne only playing three games this term, his 30 assists is the most of any player from Europe’s top five leagues since the start of 2022-23, with Mohamed Salah second on 24.
While De Bruyne and Doku are back in the reckoning, City must assess Erling Haaland, who is nearing a return to fitness after suffering a foot injury in early December. Bernardo Silva was ill last week but should be back on Tyneside, though John Stones remains a major doubt.
Guardiola will want City to make a better start than they managed in their last two away league games – comeback wins over Luton Town and Everton. Only three teams have previously won three straight Premier League away games when conceding first in each: Leeds United in 1999, Tottenham in 2013 and Manchester United in 2020 (a run of six).
Newcastle, meanwhile, endured a far less productive festive period and have lost six of their last nine Premier League matches (three wins), only one fewer defeat than they suffered in their previous 44 (24 wins, 13 draws, seven losses). After going down to Luton, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, they could lose four successive league games for the first time since January 2021 (a run of five).
City, meanwhile, have only lost one of their last 32 league games against teams on losing runs of three or more matches, winning 22 and drawing nine.
However, the Magpies eased the pressure on boss Eddie Howe with a commanding 3-0 FA Cup victory over local rivals Sunderland last week, with Alexander Isak netting twice after Dan Ballard put through his own net for the Black Cats.
Isak has now scored in three straight games for the second time this campaign, while his total of 13 goals in 22 matches across all competitions this season is two more than he netted in 29 appearances throughout 2022-23 (for Real Sociedad and Newcastle combined).
While Newcastle should be in high spirits after their first Tyne-Wear derby win since August 2011, they suffered yet another injury blow at the Stadium of Light, with Joelinton sustaining a thigh issue. The Brazilian joins Jacob Murphy, Callum Wilson, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Elliot Anderson, Matt Targett and Nick Pope on a lengthy injury list.
Newcastle will need a far better defensive performance than they managed on their last league outing, having allowed a Premier League-record 7.11 expected goals (xG) in a 4-2 defeat at Liverpool. Martin Dúbravka made 10 saves at Anfield but it wasn’t enough for the visitors, who have lost five of their seven league games (one win, one draw) without first-choice stopper Pope in the last two seasons.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Newcastle have a truly dismal record against City, who have won more games (30), scored more goals (98) and kept more clean sheets (22) against the Magpies than versus any other club in their Premier League history.
Indeed, Saturday’s hosts have only won one of their last 32 Premier League matches against City (five draws, 26 defeats), a 2-1 victory at St James’ in January 2019.
City have also scored in each of their last 30 Premier League games against Newcastle, the longest scoring streak one side has managed against another in the competition’s history.
In English top-flight history, the last team to score in more consecutive matches against a single opponent was Chelsea, who netted in 37 games straight against Newcastle between 1933 and 1969.
City were, however, shut out when the teams met on this ground in the third round of the EFL Cup in September, falling to a 1-0 defeat. Newcastle could now beat the Citizens twice in the same season for the first time since 1983-84.
Recent Form
Only Aston Villa (28) and Liverpool (26) have bettered Newcastle’s return of 24 points at home in the Premier League this season, Howe’s men winning eight and losing two on Tyneside.
They were, however, beaten 3-1 by Forest last time out at St James’ Park, and they could now suffer back-to-back home defeats for the first time under Howe.
Across all competitions, City have won their last five games since squandering a two-goal lead in a 2-2 home draw against Crystal Palace in mid-December.
Guardiola’s team have also taken 19 points from their 10 away Premier League matches this season (six wins, one draw, three defeats), a tally only matched by title rivals Liverpool.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in this game, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Newcastle
Kieran Trippier: 73.4 (out of 100)
Bruno Guimarães: 72.7
Anthony Gordon: 72.4
Alexander Isak: 72.0
Nick Pope: 66.6
Man City
Rodri: 89.5 (out of 100)
Bernardo Silva: 81.7
Phil Foden: 81.5
Kyle Walker: 78.7
Erling Haaland: 78.1
Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction
Newcastle have not had much joy against City lately, and the supercomputer does not expect that to change on Saturday.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted before kick-off, City won 55.2%, with Newcastle triumphing in 19.4% of scenarios and 25.4% finishing level.
In our season predictions, City are back to being title favourites. They retain their crown in 57.5% of the supercomputer’s simulations, ahead of Liverpool (36.5%), Arsenal (3.4%) and Villa (2.1%).
Newcastle have slipped 11 points adrift of the top four and are now considered outsiders for UEFA Champions League qualification. They have just a 1.2% chance of a top-four finish and a 3.9% likelihood of finishing fifth, with eighth (18.8%) now their most common position in our projections.
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