They may only have one point each from two games, but Mozambique and Ghana can still qualify for the knockout stage of the Africa Cup of Nations. Look ahead to their tussle with our Mozambique vs Ghana prediction and preview.
Mozambique vs Ghana: Pre-Match Facts
- The Opta supercomputer predicts a Ghana win in this match despite their first two results of AFCON 2023, giving a 56.6% likelihood to a first victory of the tournament for the Black Stars.
- This will be the second meeting between Mozambique and Ghana at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations after facing off in the group stage of the 1996 edition. Ghana won that clash 2-0.
- Mozambique have never beaten Ghana. They have lost four of their six meetings in all competitions (D2).
- Mozambique have failed to score in 10 of their 14 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations, managing just six goals in those 14 games. Among teams to have played as many games as they have at AFCON, they’ve failed to score in the highest percentage (71%).
- Ghana are on their longest ever winless run at the Africa Cup of Nations (six games, D3 L3). In fact, they’ve only won one of their last 11 matches in the competition (D5 L5) – a 2-0 victory against Guinea-Bissau in the 2019 group stage.
- Mozambique have lost their final group stage game at all four previous AFCON tournaments, losing to Egypt (1986), Ghana (1996), Zambia (1998) and Nigeria (2010).
- Ghana have conceded twice in each of their two group stage games at AFCON 2023 (D1 L1). They’ve never conceded two or more in their first three matches of a single edition.
- Mozambique are winless at the Africa Cup of Nations (P14 D3 L11), the joint most any nation has played without winning at AFCON, along with Benin. The Mambas are also one game away from equalling the most games played without a clean sheet unless they record a shutout against Ghana, with Zimbabwe currently holding that unwanted record of 15 games.
- Despite only playing in one of their two Africa Cup of Nations games this year, Geny Catamo has had six more touches in the opposition box than any other Mozambique player (10) – indeed, Catamo’s tally makes up 30% of their total at the 2023 AFCON (10/33).
- Mohammed Kudus has had the most shots (4), most shots on target (2), the best pass accuracy among teammates to complete at least 20 passes (91.3%) and completed three times as many dribbles (6) as any Ghana player so far at AFCON 2023.
A thrilling finale promises to grip Africa Cup of Nations Group B on Monday with three teams still aiming to qualify for the knockout stages; two of them go head-to-head when Mozambique and Ghana tussle in what is essentially a winner-takes-all encounter.
With one point apiece after two matches, Ghana and Mozambique both need to win to stand any real chance of qualifying for the last 16.
It may not have been a vintage performance from Ghana last time out against Egypt, with the Black Stars arguably lucky to earn a point despite leading twice, but the draw gives them a much greater chance of getting through to the knockouts with a total of four points likely to be enough to at least take one of the best third-place spots.
Considering Mohammed Kudus got his campaign off to an emphatic start on MD 2 with a couple of goals, Chris Hughton will be confident his team have the requisite quality to see off a Mozambique team also battling to save themselves.
Kudus has had the most shots (4), most shots on target (2), the best pass accuracy among teammates to complete at least 20 passes (91.3%) and completed three times as many dribbles (6) as any teammate so far at the tournament.
Their commendable MD 1 draw with Egypt meant confidence in the Mozambique camp was high heading into their second game, but Cape Verde brought them crashing back to earth as the Islanders won 3-0 on Friday.
They didn’t exactly help themselves, though, with goalkeeper Ernan culpable for Cape Verde’s first goal and the second coming as a result of a defensive error by centre-back Edmilson Dove.
As such, anything other than a win will almost certainly see the Mambas heading home as they sit behind Ghana at the bottom of the table on goal difference, which would be the tiebreaker if head-to-head record with the Black Stars is level. They could finish third with a draw if Egypt are hammered by Cape Verde, but that seems unlikely, as does the possibility of Mozambique being one of the best third-placed teams with just two points.
A Mozambique win would be a first, as they remain winless at the Africa Cup of Nations (P14 D3 L11), the joint most any nation has played without a victory at AFCON, along with Benin.
Mozambique vs Ghana Head-to-Head
Mozambique and Ghana faced each other in the group stage of the 1996 Africa Cup of Nations, with Ghana emerging 2-0 victors; that’s their only past meeting at the AFCON.
They’ve met each other six times in all official competitions, though, with Ghana winning four and losing none.
Mozambique vs Ghana Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Ghana to prevail in this MD 3 clash, with the Black Stars winning 56.6% of the 10,000 pre-match predictions. Mozambique claimed a crucial victory in just 16.4% of scenarios.
In our pre-tournament predictions, the supercomputer only rated Ghana as the ninth favourites to go all the way, doing so in just 5.3% of simulations. Unsurprisingly, given they’ve not won either of their first two games, their chances have decreased even further since.
Mozambique’s probability of winning the trophy hasn’t changed dramatically, but that’s mostly down to the fact they were only given a 0.6% likelihood in the first place.
Below you’ll find the latest, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 for both sides according to the Opta supercomputer:
Mozambique vs Ghana Squads
Mozambique: Ivan Urrubal, Ernan, Fazito, Reinildo, David Malembana, Domingos Macandza, Bruno Langa, Mexer, Nanani, Edmilson Dove, Amadou, Clésio, Guima, Alfons Amade, Dominguês, Shaquille, João Bonde, Nené, Gildo Lourenço, Stanley Ratifo, Geny Catamo, Witi, Lau King.
Coach: Chiquinho Conde
Ghana: Richard Ofori, Jojo Wollacott, Lawrence Ati Zigi, Daniel Amartey, Alidu Seidu, Fatawu Hamidu, Alexander Djiku, Gideon Mensah, Denis Odoi, Mohammed Salisu, Nicholas Opoku, Richmond Lamptey, Salis Abdul Samed, Majeed Ashimeru, Osman Bukari, Mohammed Kudus, Iddrisu Baba, Elisha Owusu, André Ayew, Jordan Ayew, Jonathan Sowah, Kingsley Schindler, Iñaki Williams, Ernest Nuamah, Ransford Königsdörffer, Antoine Semenyo, Joseph Paintsil.
Coach: Chris Hughton