The defending champions are already through while Guinea are hoping to join them. We look ahead to this game with our Guinea vs Senegal prediction and preview.

Guinea vs Senegal: Pre-Match Facts

  • Senegal are already through, but know they need at least a point to secure top spot. The Opta supercomputer is predicting they win this game, giving them a 39.9% chance of beating Guinea.
  • Guinea and Senegal are meeting each other for the fourth time at the Africa Cup of Nations – only Ghana have faced Guinea on more occasions (6) at the tournament.  
  • Senegal are so far unbeaten against Guinea at the AFCON, with two wins and one draw: 2-1 in 1994 (group stages), 3-2 in 2006 (quarter-finals) and 0-0 in 2022 (group stages). Guinea scored the opening goal in each of their two defeats. 
  • Guinea are aiming to progress from the group stage at the Africa Cup of Nations for a fourth consecutive tournament (2015, 2019 and 2021 previously), which would be their longest run of qualifying for the knockout stages in the competition (also did so in three consecutively between 2004 and 2008).
  • Following victories over Gambia on MD 1 and Cameroon on MD 2, Senegal will be aiming to win three group-stage games in a single AFCON for the first time. Indeed, Senegal have never previously won three consecutive group-stage games in the competition.  
  • Guinea (W1 D1) will be looking to go unbeaten in the group stage in a single AFCON edition for the first time since 2015 (D3), while they last won multiple games in a group stage at the tournament in 2006 (won three). 
  • Senegal have scored six goals in their two games at AFCON 2023, netting three times against both Gambia and Cameroon. If they find the net in this game, it will be the most goals they’ve ever scored in a group stage in the tournament, having previously netted six in 2017. 
  • Guinea have faced just two opposition shots on target in their two games at the 2023 AFCON, both of which came in their opener against Cameroon (0 against Gambia last time out). 
  • Sadio Mané has been directly involved in six goals in his last six appearances at the Africa Cup of Nations (3 goals, 3 assists), while he could become the first Senegal player to hit double figures for goals in the competition (currently on nine). 
  • 20-year-old Lamine Camara is Senegal’s top scorer at AFCON 2023 (2), while he also leads all players in his team for chances created from open play (3) and passes completed in the opposition half (67). 
  • Guinea head coach Kaba Diawara scored in his team’s 3-2 defeat against Senegal in the 2006 edition. It was his last goal scored at the Africa Cup of Nations. 

Match Preview

Senegal’s defence of their AFCON title could barely have started better. The Teranga Lions followed up a 3-0 win over Gambia on Matchday 1 with a 3-1 victory against Cameroon on Friday.

Those two wins have sent Aliou Cissé’s side through with a game to spare, though they will need to avoid defeat against Guinea on MD 3 at Stade Charles Konan Banny to confirm their place at the top of Group C.

Ismaïla Sarr gave Senegal an early lead against Cameroon, before Habib Diallo added a second from a Sarr cross. Jean-Charles Castelletto thundered in a header to halve the deficit, but Sadio Mané put the game to bed deep into stoppage time with an accurate finish past André Onana.

Senegal v Cameroon xG race

Guinea are handily placed to join Senegal in the last 16 but will want to avoid the uncertainty of finishing third, with only four of the six third-placed teams going through.

Kaba Diawara’s men were made to work for their win over Gambia but finally found a way through when Aguibou Camara scored with just over 20 minutes remaining in their MD 2 clash. They prevented Gambia from having a single shot on target, but could only find the net once themselves despite having 16 shots and an expected goals total of 2.21.

Guinea v Gambia stats

Guinea vs Senegal Head-to-Head

This will be the fourth AFCON meeting between Guinea and Senegal. Only Ghana have faced Guinea on more occasions (6) at the tournament.

Senegal have not lost to Guinea in three meetings at the Africa Cup of Nations, with two wins and one draw: 2-1 in 1994 (group stage), 3-2 in 2006 (quarter-final) and 0-0 in 2022 (group stage). Guinea did score the opening goal in each of their two defeats, though.

Senegal v Guinea 2022 stats

Guinea vs Senegal Prediction

Guinea vs Senegal Prediction

Senegal need just a point to secure top spot in Group C but will surely want to make it three wins from three as they seek to successfully defend their AFCON crown. The Opta supercomputer makes them favourites to beat Guinea, with a 39.9% chance of doing so. The draw still suits them, which has a 35.1% likelihood, while the Syli National have a 25.0% chance of winning and taking first place from them.

In the week leading up to AFCON 2023, our pre-tournament predictions had Senegal as favourites to lift the trophy, though they recently slipped behind Morocco into second place. Take a look at our live predictor and plenty more AFCON 2023 stats.

Guinea will feel confident of advancing with a 98.0% chance of progressing (at the time of writing), so says the supercomputer.

Below are the current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 for both sides according to the Opta supercomputer:

Guinea vs Senegal Squads

Guinea: Ibrahim Koné, Aly Keita, Moussa Camara, Mohamed Ali Camara, Sekou Sylla, Julian Jeanvier, Saïdou Sow, Mouctar Diakhaby, Antoine Conté, Issiaga Sylla, Ibrahim Diakité, Seydouba Cissé, Amadou Diawara, Naby Keïta, Mory Konaté, Ilaix Moriba, Abdoulaye Touré, Aguibou Camara, Mohamed Bayo, José Kanté, Serhou Guirassy, Morgan Guilavogui, Facinet Conté, Karim Cissé, François Kamano. 

Coach: Kaba Diawara

Senegal: Mory Diaw, Seny Dieng, Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Youssouf Sabaly, Ismail Jakobs, Formose Mendy, Abdoulaye N’Diaye, Abdou Diallo, Fodé Ballo-Touré, Abdoulaye Seck, Moussa Niakhaté, Krépin Diatta, Idrissa Gueye, Pathé Ciss, Cheikhou Kouyaté, Nampalys Mendy, Lamine Camara, Pape Gueye, Pape Sarr, Sadio Mané, Habib Diallo, Nicolas Jackson, Boulaye Dia, Ismaïla Sarr, Iliman Ndiaye, Abdallah Sima.

Coach: Aliou Cissé 

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