Cameroon surely need a win on Matchday 3 to reach the AFCON last 16. We look ahead to Tuesday’s game with our Gambia vs Cameroon prediction and preview.
Gambia vs Cameroon: Pre-Match Facts
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Cameroon will win this game, doing so in 58.5% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- This will be the second meeting between Gambia and Cameroon at the Africa Cup of Nations, after facing off in the quarter-finals of the 2022 edition. That game produced a 2-0 win for Cameroon, with two goals from Karl Toko-Ekambi.
- Gambia have lost all three of their previous matches against Cameroon in all competitions while failing to score a single goal (5 conceded).
- After going unbeaten in their first four AFCON games (W3 D1) and scoring in every game, Gambia have lost each of their last three in the competition without scoring.
- Cameroon are winless in their last four AFCON matches (D3 L1), their longest such run since 2017 (six games, D4 L2).
- Cameroon have conceded four goals in their two AFCON 2023 matches so far, already the most they’ve shipped in a single AFCON group stage since 2010 (5).
- Cameroon’s 3-1 defeat to Senegal last time out ended a run of 10 consecutive AFCON group stage matches without losing (W4 D6); the Indomitable Lions haven’t lost back-to-back such games in the competition since 1990.
- Gambia have failed to score with their last 24 shots at the Africa Cup of Nations (currently 289 minutes since Musa Barrow’s goal against Guinea in January 2022). Indeed, just two of their 19 attempts have been on target so far in AFCON 2023 (11%).
- Georges-Kévin Nkoudou has been directly involved in 67% of Cameroon’s shots at AFCON 2023 (12/18), creating eight chances (including one assist) and having four shots himself.
- Not only has Musa Barrow been directly involved in all four of Gambia’s goals at the AFCON (two goals, two assists), he’s been responsible for 60% of their shots in the competition (34/57, 24 shots, 10 chances created).
- Cameroon striker Karl Toko-Ekambi has scored three goals in his two previous appearances against Gambia: one goal in an AFCON qualifier in March 2016 and two in the quarter-finals of AFCON 2021.
Match Preview
Cameroon have one more chance to rescue their AFCON 2023 campaign, and will almost certainly need to beat Gambia at Stade de Bouaké on Matchday 3 to have a chance of advancing to the round of 16.
The 2017 AFCON champions have just one point from their first two games in Group C, having drawn with Guinea before losing to Senegal. Fail to win here and they will probably be out of the tournament.
It would be quite a blow for goalkeeper André Onana, who only recently arrived in Ivory Coast. He missed Cameroon’s opener against Guinea due to commitments with Manchester United, and could be back in England without having missed a game for his club unless the Indomitable Lions can get through.
Rigobert Song’s men were well beaten 3-1 by Senegal on MD 2, despite Jean-Charles Castelletto pulling a late goal back. At the time it reduced the deficit to 2-1 as Cameroon looked to fight back, but Sadio Mané put the game to bed deep into stoppage time.
Their opponents are in an even more desperate situation, with Gambia pointless after two games having lost to Senegal and Guinea. They will need to win here and hope results elsewhere see them go through as one of the four best third-place teams.
Gambia looked for a while like they might be able to take a point from their game with Guinea on MD 2, but ultimately fell to a goal from Aguibou Camara scored with just over 20 minutes remaining. Tom Saintfiet’s side were unable to record a shot on target, ending the game with an expected goals total of just 0.37.
Gambia vs Cameroon Head-to-Head
This will be just the second AFCON meeting between Gambia and Cameroon after facing off in the quarter-finals two years ago. Cameroon won that clash 2-0 thanks to two goals from Karl Toko-Ekambi.
Gambia have lost all three of their previous matches against Cameroon in all competitions, failing to score a single goal and conceding five.
Gambia vs Cameroon Prediction
Cameroon may be without a win so far, but the Opta supercomputer thinks they’ll make it third time lucky here. The Indomitable Lions have a 58.5% chance of victory, while Gambia are handed just a 14.5% probability of taking the three points. The draw, which would help neither team, is rated at 27.0%.
In the week leading up to AFCON 2023, our pre-tournament predictions had six teams above Cameroon in terms of likelihood of winning the trophy. Their single point from their first two games has hindered their chances further, with just a 4.7% chance of winning AFCON 2023 as of writing. They do have a greater than 60% chance of making it to the last 16, though. Take a look at our live predictor and plenty more AFCON 2023 stats here.
Gambia’s prospects are significantly slimmer, with a less than 10% chance of making it to the knockout stage.
Below are the current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 for both sides according to the Opta supercomputer:
Gambia vs Cameroon Squads
Gambia: Modou Jobe, Lamin Sarr, Baboucarr Gaye, Ibou Touray, Omar Colley, Bubacarr Sanneh, Saidy Janko, James Gomez, Noah Sonko Sundberg, Jacob Mendy, Muhammed Sanneh, Sulayman Marreh, Ablie Jallow, Dawda Ngum, Alasana Manneh, Yusupha Bobb, Hamza Barry, Ebou Adams, Ebrima Darboe, Assan Ceesay, Muhammed Badamosi, Abdoulie Sanyang, Musa Barrow, Ebrima Colley, Yankuba Minteh, Alieu Fadera, Ali Sowe.
Coach: Tom Saintfiet
Cameroon: André Onana, Fabrice Ondoa, Dévis Epassy, Simon Ngapandouetnbu, Nouhou Tolo, Junior Tchamadeu, Oumar Gonzalez, Darlin Yongwa, Christopher Wooh, Harold Moukoudi, Jean-Charles Castelletto, Enzo Tchato, Malcom Bokélé, Yvan Neyou, Olivier Kemen, Frank Anguissa, Ben Elliott, Wilfried Nathan Douala, Olivier Ntcham, Karl Toko-Ekambi, Frank Magri, Vincent Aboubakar, Moumi Ngamaleu, Faris Moumbagna, Leonel Ateba, Georges-Kévin Nkoudou, Clinton N’Jie.
Coach: Rigobert Song
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