With both teams hoping to secure their place in the last 16, we look ahead to this game with our Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast prediction and preview.
Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast: Pre-Match Facts
- The Opta supercomputer is predicting an Ivory Coast win in this match; they were victorious in 58.2% of our pre-match simulations.
- This will be the third meeting between Equatorial Guinea and Ivory Coast at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations – Equatorial Guinea will have faced Ivory Coast more times than any other opponent at the tournament. The Ivorians have so far won both of their previous encounters: 3-0 in 2012 (quarter-finals) and 1-0 in 2022 (group stage).
- Equatorial Guinea and Ivory Coast are in the same group for the second consecutive AFCON tournament. In 2022, they finished second and first respectively.
- After averaging just 0.75 goals per game in their first 16 Africa Cup of Nations matches, scoring 12 times, Equatorial Guinea netted four times in their 4-2 win over Guinea-Bissau on Matchday 2, the first time they’ve scored more than twice in an AFCON game.
- Ivory Coast lost their last match against Nigeria, and have not lost consecutive AFCON games since February 2008 (vs Egypt and Ghana in the semi-finals and third-place play-off respectively). They haven’t lost two games in an AFCON group stage since 2002.
- Equatorial Guinea have only lost two of their 11 Africa Cup of Nations group stage matches (W6 D3). One of those was on MD 3 in 2012 vs Zambia and the other was against Ivory Coast in January 2022.
- Ivory Coast’s 1-0 defeat to Nigeria on MD 2 was the first time a host nation had lost a group stage match at the Africa Cup of Nations since 2012, when Equatorial Guinea lost 1-0 to Zambia. The only host nation to lose two group games in a tournament was Ivory Coast themselves back in 1984.
- Across their first two matches at this year’s AFCON, Jérémie Boga is either top or joint-top for chances created (4), expected assists (0.28), passes played into the box (10), dribbles attempted (5) and successful crosses (4) among his Ivory Coast teammates.
- Emilio Nsue scored a hat-trick against Guinea-Bissau in Equatorial Guinea’s last match, becoming the oldest player to net a treble in the competition (34 years, 110 days) and the first to do so overall for 15 years and 362 days, since Soufiane Alloudi in 2008 for Morocco vs Namibia.
- Equatorial Guinea have scored 16 goals at the Africa Cup of Nations, with 50% of those netted by either Emilio Nsue (4) or Javier Balboa (4). Nsue scored with all three of his shots against Guinea-Bissau on MD 2, having four more touches in the opposition box than any of his teammates (6) in the match.
Match Preview
The hosts of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations are hoping to cement their place in the knockout stage, but Ivory Coast still have work to do when they face Equatorial Guinea at Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara on Monday.
Their 1-0 defeat to Nigeria on Matchday 2 was a blow, but thanks to their opening win over Guinea-Bissau, they are still well placed to go through considering four of the six third-place teams in the tournament will advance.
It bodes well for the Elephants though that they have not lost consecutive AFCON games since February 2008 (vs Egypt and Ghana in the semi-finals and third-place play-off respectively). They also haven’t lost two games in an AFCON group stage since 2002.
Jean-Louis Gasset’s men were disappointing against Nigeria, though, having more shots (14-11) but recording a much lower expected goals total (0.57-1.72). William Troost-Ekong’s winning penalty did aid that number for the Super Eagles.
Ivory Coast will not want to match their own unwanted record. Their loss to Nigeria was the first time a host nation has lost a group stage match at the Africa Cup of Nations since 2012, when Monday’s opponents Equatorial Guinea lost 1-0 to Zambia. Only one host nation has ever lost two AFCON group games, and that was Ivory Coast back in 1984.
They will once again look to Jérémie Boga for inspiration. The Nice winger is either top or joint-top for chances created (4), expected assists (0.28), passes played into the box (10), dribbles attempted (5) and successful crosses (4) among his Ivory Coast teammates.
Equatorial Guinea come into their final Group A game on a high after beating Guinea-Bissau. The 4-2 success came largely thanks to a hat-trick from former Middlesbrough and Birmingham City player Emilio Nsue.
In doing so, he became the oldest player to score a hat-trick at AFCON (34 years, 110 days) and the first to do so at any edition for 15 years and 362 days since Soufiane Alloudi in 2008 for Morocco against Namibia.
The National Thunder top the group on four points heading into MD 3, and generally do well in the Africa Cup of Nations group stage. Equatorial Guinea have only lost two of their 11 AFCON group stage matches (W6 D3). However, one of those was against Ivory Coast in the 2022 edition.
Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast Head-to-Head
This will be the third meeting between Equatorial Guinea and Ivory Coast at the Africa Cup of Nations. Equatorial Guinea will have faced Ivory Coast more times than any other opponent at the tournament, with the latter having won both previous encounters: 3-0 in 2012 (quarter-finals) and 1-0 in 2022 (group stage).
They are in the same group for the second consecutive AFCON. In 2022, they finished second and first respectively, with – as mentioned – Ivory Coast winning their meeting 1-0.
Their only other clash was a 1-1 draw in a friendly in March 2015.
Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast Prediction
A win will guarantee Ivory Coast a top-two place in Group A, and the Opta supercomputer is backing them to get it. The tournament hosts are given a 58.2% chance of victory, while Equatorial Guinea have just a 20.2% likelihood of recording their second win of AFCON 2023. The draw is rated at 21.6%.
In the week leading up to AFCON 2023, our pre-tournament predictions had Ivory Coast as second favourites to lift the trophy. Their chances have actually risen slightly since, despite their defeat to Nigeria.
With four points from their first two games, Equatorial Guinea have a near-certain chance of reaching the last 16 according to the supercomputer.
Below are the current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 for both sides according to the Opta supercomputer:
Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast Squads
Equatorial Guinea: Aitor Embela, Manuel Sapunga, Jesús Owono, Saúl Coco, Basilio Ndong, Carlos Akapo, Esteban Orozco, Néstor Senra, Marvin Anieboh, Emilio Nsue, José Elo, Charles Ondo, Féderico Bikoro, José Machín, Santiago Eneme, Pablo Ganet, Álex Balboa, Jannick Buyla, Iban Salvador, José Miranda, Óscar Siafá, José Nabil, Salomón Obama, Noé Ela, Luís Asué.
Coach: Juan Michá
Ivory Coast: Charles Folly, Yahia Fofana, Badra Ali Sangaré, Evan Ndicka, Wilfried Singo, Ousmane Diomande, Ismaël Diallo, Sèrge Aurier, Odilon Kossounou, Ghislain Konan, Willy-Arnaud Boly, Seko Fofana, Jean Seri, Franck Kessié, Idrissa Doumbia, Ibrahim Sangaré, Lazare Amani, Max Gradel, Jérémie Boga, Simon Adingra, Oumar Diakité, Jean-Philippe Krasso, Sébastien Haller, Jonathan Bamba, Christian Kouamé, Nicolas Pépé, Karim Konaté.
Coach: Jean-Louis Gasset
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our new football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.