We look ahead to this AFCON 2023 Group A fixture with our Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea-Bissau prediction and preview.
Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea-Bissau: Pre-Match Facts
- This is predicted to be a close game by the Opta supercomputer, with Equatorial Guinea (39.4%) edging the pre-match simulations ahead of Guinea-Bissau (33.8%).
- This will be the first encounter between Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations. It’s also the first time that any of the three Guineas in CAF (Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau) will face each other at the tournament.
- Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau last met in March 2022, in Portugal. The friendly ended 3-0 to Guinea-Bissau.
- Following their 1-1 draw against Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea could go unbeaten in their opening two games of an Africa Cup of Nations for the third time out of four participations (W2 in 2012 and D2 in 2015), only failing to do so in 2022 (W1 L1).
- Equatorial Guinea have scored in each of their last two games at the Africa Cup of Nations and are looking to do so in three consecutive matches in the competition for the very first time.
- After their 2-0 defeat to Ivory Coast in the opening game, Guinea-Bissau could lose both of their opening two matches of an Africa Cup of Nations tournament for the first time.
- Guinea-Bissau remain winless in 10 AFCON games (D3 L7). Indeed, they have failed to score at all in their last eight games since a 2-1 defeat to Cameroon in 2017.
- Equatorial Guinea are unbeaten in their last three group stage games at the Africa Cup of Nations (W2 D1). They’ve never gone four such matches in a row without defeat in the competition.
- Guinea-Bissau have had 88 shots and gone 797 minutes at the Africa Cup of Nations without scoring a goal, since Piqueti’s 13th-minute strike against Cameroon in January 2017.
- Against Nigeria, Iban Salvador became the first Equatorial Guinea player to either score or assist in three different Africa Cup of Nations editions (two goals, one assist). Indeed, since his debut in the competition in 2015, no player has had more shots (19) or more goal involvements (3) for the National Thunder.
- As well as creating a game-high four chances, no Guinea-Bissau player completed more passes ending in the final third (7), won more duels (6), or was fouled (3) more than Alfa Semedo against Ivory Coast in the opening game of this year’s AFCON.
Equatorial Guinea surprised many by earning a point in their opening game against Nigeria in Group A of AFCON 2023. The Elephants even took the lead against the three-time AFCON winners through Iban Salvador’s 36th-minute strike – their only shot on target in the game.
Despite Napoli striker Victor Osimhen equalising soon after, and the Nigerians missing a host of chances in the second half, Equatorial Guinea hung on and will put themselves in a strong position to advance to the round of 16 should they defeat Guinea-Bissau on Thursday.
This meeting with Guinea-Bissau presents Equatorial Guinea with the opportunity to both remain unbeaten in four successive AFCON games for the first time and score in three successive AFCON matches for the first time.
Guinea-Bissau’s 2-0 defeat to hosts Ivory Coast in the opening game of the tournament came as no surprise, but they did limit one of the tournament favourites to a total of just 0.85 expected goals (xG). It’s at the other end of the pitch that the Djurtus have issues.
Guinea-Bissau have had 88 shots and now gone 797 minutes at AFCON tournaments without scoring a goal, since Piqueti’s 13th-minute strike against Cameroon in January 2017. Their eight successive games without scoring at the AFCON is a tournament record.
Before 2023, Guinea-Bissau have played in three AFCON tournaments (2017, 2019 and 2021). They have thus far failed to progress from the group stage and finished all three tournaments with the same record – fourth in the group with one draw and two losses.
Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea-Bissau Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever Africa Cup of Nations meeting between Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.
They did meet in a friendly match in Portugal on 23 March 2022, which Guinea-Bissau won 3-0, while Equatorial Guinea also lost a 2011 friendly against their opponents by three goals (4-1 defeat).
Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea-Bissau Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts that the most likely winner of this match is Equatorial Guinea, after they won in 39.4% of pre-match simulations. It’s likely to be tight, however, with Guinea-Bissau winning 33.8% of the time and a draw occurring in 26.8% of the 10,000 sims before kick-off at the Alassane Ouattara Stadium in Abidjan.
Before their 1-1 draw with Nigeria on MD 1, Equatorial Guinea were given a 51.4% chance of progressing to the knockout stages. That has now improved following that impressive point. Below are their current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer following the opening matches of the tournament:
Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea-Bissau Squads
Equatorial Guinea: Aitor Embela, Manuel Sapunga, Jesús Owono, Saúl Coco, Basilio Ndong, Carlos Akapo, Esteban Orozco, Néstor Senra, Marvin Anieboh, Emilio Nsue, José Elo, Charles Ondo, Féderico Bikoro, José Machín, Santiago Eneme, Pablo Ganet, Álex Balboa, Jannick Buyla, Iban Salvador, José Miranda, Óscar Siafá, José Nabil, Salomón Obama, Noé Ela, Luís Asué.
Coach: Juan Michá
Guinea-Bissau: Ouparine Djoco, Jonas Mendes, Fernando Embadje, Sori Mané, Marcelo Djaló, Fali Candé, Jefferson Encada, Edgar Ié, Opa Sanganté, Nanu, Prosper Mendy, Houboulang Mendes, Nito Gomes, Dálcio, Zidane Banjaqui, Janio Bikel, Moreto Cassamá, Mauro Rodrigues, Alfa Semedo, Famana Quizera, Carlos Mané, Mama Baldé, Marciano Sanca, Zé Turbo, Carlos Gomes, Zinho Gano, Franculino Djú.
Coach: Baciro Candé