We look ahead to this AFCON 2023 last-16 tie at the Laurent Pokou Stadium in San Pédro with our Egypt vs DR Congo prediction and preview.

Egypt vs DR Congo: Pre-Match Facts

  • Egypt are predicted to win this match by the Opta supercomputer, with 47.0% of simulations before kick-off seeing them beat DR Congo inside 90 minutes.
  • This will be the fifth Africa Cup of Nations encounter between Egypt and DR Congo, with the Pharoahs winning three of the previous four (L1).
  • Egypt and DR Congo have met twice previously in the knockout rounds of the Africa Cup of Nations, each winning once (DR Congo won 3-2 in the 1974 semi-final and Egypt won 4-1 in the 2006 quarter-finals). On both occasions the winner of the tie went on to lift the trophy that year – DR Congo (as Zaire) in 1974 and Egypt in 2006.
  • Egypt and DR Congo qualified for the knockout rounds of AFCON 2023 with three draws each in their group stage games – only four previous teams have progressed from their group with three draws since 1996 (when groups were made of four teams), and DR Congo (also in 2015) are the first to do so twice (Benin and Tunisia in 2019, Guinea in 2015).
  • Four of Egypt’s last seven Africa Cup of Nations knockout matches have gone to penalties (three wins, one defeat). They’ve failed to score in four of their last five in the knockouts, with the other a 2-1 win over Morocco in the 2021 quarter-final.
  • Egypt qualified from the group stages of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations with three 2-2 draws seeing them into second place. They are the first side ever to qualify from an AFCON group stage despite conceding 2+ goals in all three games.
  • DR Congo have progressed from the groups in their last four AFCON appearances, although they were eliminated in their first knockout game in both 2019 (2-2 draw, lost 4-2 on pens against Madagascar in the last 16) and 2017 (2-1 against Ghana in the quarter-final).
  • In the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations group stage, Egypt had 12 more shots than any other team (59) and only Morocco (18) had more shots on target than they did (17). They also faced the joint fewest shots (18, level with DR Congo).
  • Despite only playing 91 minutes in this year’s Africa Cup of Nations, Egypt’s Marwan Attia started more sequences that ended with a shot than any other player in the group stage (8).
  • DR Congo scored just two goals in the group stage of AFCON 2023, only three sides netted fewer (Tunisia, Namibia and Tanzania – all one), while only Ivory Coast (4.4% – 2/46) have a lower shot conversion rate than the Leopards (4.6% – 2/44) among teams to have progressed to the knockout rounds.
  • Mostafa Mohamed has scored in each of his three 2023 Africa Cup of Nations matches, the first Egypt player to score in their first three games of an AFCON tournament since Hossam Hassan in 2000. No Egyptian player has scored in their first four at a single AFCON, while the only two to score in four different matches are Ali Abo Gresha (four in 1974) and Gedo (five in 2010).

Match Preview

The AFCON 2023 draw specialists will meet on Sunday, as Egypt and DR Congo battle for a spot in the quarter-finals. Both nations drew all three of their games in the group stage, becoming just the fifth and sixth teams since 1996 to qualify for the knockout stages with three draws.

While this game can be drawn and eventually head to penalties, only one can progress to the next round. A penalty shootout might be required, as Egypt are involved. Four of their last seven AFCON knockout ties have gone to a penalty shootout, including three of their four at the last tournament in January/February 2022. Every one of Egypt’s knockout stage matches at that tournament went to extra time before they eventually lost on penalties to Senegal in the final (4-2). Overall at AFCON 2021, Egypt had to play 801 minutes and 49 seconds of football – 97 minutes more than the eventual tournament winners, Senegal.

Mohamed Salah was a key part of their run to the final that year, but he’ll be missing from this game following an injury suffered in the group stage against Ghana. He scored a 97th-minute penalty in their tournament opener versus Mozambique to secure a 2-2 draw. In fact, in all three of their group games (also 2-2 vs Ghana and 2-2 vs Cape Verde) Egypt were forced to come from a goal down to secure a point. Striker Mostafa Mohamed will be looking to keep up his record of netting in every match in this tournament – no Egyptian player has ever scored in their first four appearances at a single edition of an Africa Cup of Nations.

Mostafa Mohamed AFCON goals

While DR Congo also drew their three group games, they were lower-scoring affairs (four goals overall) than Egypt’s three matches (12 goals in total). They came from behind to draw 1-1 with both Zambia and Morocco before their final game against Tanzania ended 0-0 and saw them secure second place in Group F behind the Moroccans.

Of the 16 teams remaining at AFCON 2023, only Namibia (1) scored fewer goals in the group stage than DR Congo (2), while they scored their two goals from an expected goals (xG) total of 5.0 – only Nigeria (-3.1) had a bigger underperformance in relation to their xG total in the group stage than DR Congo (-3.0).

Egypt vs DR Congo Head-to-Head

This will be the fifth Africa Cup of Nations encounter between Egypt and DR Congo, with the Pharoahs winning three of the previous four (L1).

Egypt and DR Congo have met twice previously in the knockout rounds of the Africa Cup of Nations, each winning once (DR Congo won 3-2 in the semi-final in 1974 and Egypt won 4-1 in the quarter-final in 2006). On both occasions the winner of the tie went on to lift the trophy that year – DR Congo (as Zaire) in 1974 and Egypt in 2006.

Their meeting in the AFCON 2019 group stage – a 2-0 win for the Egyptians, with Mohamed Salah scoring the second goal – was the last international played between the two nations.

Egypt vs DR Congo Prediction

Egypt vs DR Congo Prediction

The Opta supercomputer predicts that Egypt will win this match inside 90 minutes and progress to the quarter-finals of AFCON 2023. They won 47.0% of the pre-match simulations run, compared to 28.1% by DR Congo.

Before a ball was kicked in the tournament, Egypt were made the fifth-most likely team to win AFCON 2023 by the Opta supercomputer (8.5%) behind only Senegal (12.8%), Ivory Coast (12.1%), Morocco (11.1%) and Algeria (9.7%), who are already out of the tournament. DR Congo were given a 2.4% chance, but that’s increased following the exit of more favoured teams like the Algerians, Ghana and Tunisia.

Here are the current tournament projections for both Egypt and DR Congo by the Opta supercomputer as things stand:

Egypt vs DR Congo Squads

Egypt: Mohamed Abou Gabal, Mohamed Sobhi, Mohamed El Shenawy, Ahmed El Shenawy, Ahmed Samy, Ali Gabr, Mohamed Hany, Mohamed Hamdy, Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Omar Kamal, Ahmed Abou El Fotouh, Ahmed Hegazy, Trézéguet, Mohamed Elneny, Marwan Attia, Mahmoud Hamada, Hamdi Fathy, Emam Ashour, Mohanad Lasheen, Zizo, Mohamed Salah, Koka, Mostafa Fathi, Kahraba, Mostafa Mohamed, Omar Marmoush.

Coach: Rui Vitória

DR Congo: Baggio Siadi, Lionel Mpasi, Dimitry Bertaud, Arthur Masuaku, Henock Inonga, Chancel Mbemba, Rocky Bushiri, Joris Kayembe, Dylan Batubinsika, Gédéon Kalulu, Gaël Kakuta, Brian Bayeye, Grady Diangana, Samuel Moutoussamy, Aaron Tshibola, Charles Pickel, Yoane Wissa, Simon Banza, Meschack Elia, Fiston Mayele, Théo Bongonda, Silas Katompa Mvumpa, Cédric Bakambu.

Coach: Sébastien Desabre

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