Surprise package Cape Verde are hoping to take maximum points from the group, while record champions Egypt are still battling to join them in the knockouts. Look ahead to the game with our Cape Verde vs Egypt prediction and preview.

Cape Verde vs Egypt: Pre-Match Facts

  • The Opta supercomputer is placing more value on tournament pedigree than it is recent form in its match prediction, giving seven-time champions Egypt a 62.5% chance of winning, compared to just 14.8% for Cape Verde, who have two wins from two so far at AFCON 2023.
  • This will be the first international encounter between Cape Verde and Egypt. 
  • Cape Verde’s only other two matches against North African sides at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations both ended 1-1 (v Morocco in 2013 and Tunisia in 2015). 
  • Cape Verde have won both of their matches at this AFCON tournament, as many as they’d managed across the 2013, 2015 and 2021 editions put together (P11 W2 D6 L3). 
  • Egypt have drawn four consecutive Africa Cup of Nations games for the first time, while they could go without a win in their first three matches in a single edition for the first time since 1990 (L3). 
  • Cape Verde have already progressed to the knockout stage, the third time they’ve done so (also 2013 and 2021). This is, however, the first time they’ve progressed from a group in first place.
  • Egypt have conceded four goals in their first two matches of AFCON 2023, more than they shipped in their previous 14 group stage games in the competition combined (three). 
  • Cape Verde have had five different scorers at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, as many as they had across the 2013, 2015 and 2021 tournaments. 
  • Egypt will miss Mohamed Salah for this game against Cape Verde through injury – he has been directly involved in 61% of the Pharoahs’ goals at the Africa Cup of Nations since 2017 (11/18), scoring seven and assisting a further four. 
  • Cape Verde had two players aged 33+ score in their 3-0 win over Mozambique, with Bebé (33) and Ryan Mendes (34) finding the net. They were the first nation to have two such scorers in the same game at the Africa Cup of Nations this century. 
  • Egypt’s Mostafa Mohamed has scored in each of the first two games at AFCON 2023 and could become the first Egyptian to score in their opening three matches at an AFCON since Hossam Hassan in 2000 (three). 

Match Preview

Egypt were among the pre-tournament favourites for the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, but they head into Matchday 3 of Group B with work to do against the section’s surprise winners, Cape Verde.

Bubista’s Cape Verde have enjoyed an unblemished start to their campaign, securing their place in the next round as group winners on Friday with a comfortable 3-0 win over Mozambique. It is the third time they’ve advanced from the group stage (also 2013 and 2021) but is the first time they’ve progressed in first place.

Cape Verde vs Mozambique xG map

Facing the record seven-time champions promises to be an entirely different matter, however, especially with Rui Vitória’s side still hoping to confirm their spot in the next round.

The Pharaohs will consider themselves to have been fairly unfortunate not to have come away from their draw against Ghana with more. Although they had to come back from a goal behind twice, they had the better of proceedings and would’ve been good value for victory were it not for Mohammed Kudus’ brace.

Egypt vs Ghana xG race AFCON

Compounding Egypt’s misfortune was the fact that talisman and captain Mohamed Salah had to be withdrawn due to a back muscle injury. The Egyptian FA have since confirmed that Salah will miss this game, as well as their last 16 clash should they advance. The Liverpool man will be missed, having been directly involved in 61% of Egypt’s goals at the Africa Cup of Nations since 2017 (11/18), scoring seven and assisting four.

Nevertheless, with the likes of Omar Marmoush and Mostafa Mohamed, both of whom scored against the Black Stars, Egypt will fancy themselves to have enough against a Cape Verde side who already know they cannot be knocked off top spot. Mohamed has scored in each of the first two games at AFCON 2023 and could become the first Egyptian to score in their opening three matches at an AFCON since Hossam Hassan in 2000 (three). 

Egypt will hope Cape Verde’s secure position breeds a little complacency.

Cape Verde vs Egypt Head-to-Head

This will be the first ever AFCON meeting between Cape Verde and Egypt – in fact, they’ve never met in any official competition before, with Cape Verde only becoming an independent nation in 1975.

Cape Verde have faced two other North African sides in the AFCON, however. They held Morocco and Tunisia to 1-1 draws in the 2013 and 2015 editions respectively.

Cape Verde vs Egypt Prediction

cape verde vs egypt opta prediction

The Opta supercomputer considers Egypt to be strong favourites for this one. The Pharaohs won 62.5% of the 10,000 pre-match predictions; Cape Verde got a third consecutive win just 14.8% of the time.

In our pre-tournament predictions, the supercomputer rated Egypt as the fifth-most likely to win the title after Senegal, Ivory Coast, Morocco and Algeria, going all the way in 8.5% of simulations. Given they’re winless after two matches, it’s not a huge surprise to see their probability decrease, and if Salah’s injury rules him out for a couple of games, expect many to write them off completely.

Group B winners Cape Verde were among the teams least fancied by the supercomputer before the tournament began (0.9%), but they’ve enjoyed a nice boost to that after impressing over the first two matchdays. Another win on Monday could be a real statement.

Below you’ll find the latest, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 for both sides according to the Opta supercomputer:

Cape Verde vs Egypt Squads

Cape Verde: Márcio da Rosa, Vózinha, Dylan Silva, Stopira, Dylan Tavares, João Correia, Logan Costa, Steven Moreira, Pico, Diney Borges, Kenny Rocha, Laros Duarte, Deroy Duarte, Kevin Pina, Cuca, Patrick Andrade, Jamiro Monteiro, João Paulo, Ryan Mendes, Willy Semedo, Garry Rodrigues, Jovane Cabral, Bebé, Bryan Teixeira, Hélio Varela, Gilson Benchimol.

Coach: Bubista

Egypt: Mohamed Abou Gabal, Mohamed Sobhi, Mohamed El Shenawy, Ahmed El Shenawy, Ahmed Samy, Ali Gabr, Mohamed Hany, Mohamed Hamdy, Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Omar Kamal, Ahmed Abou El Fotouh, Ahmed Hegazy, Trézéguet, Mohamed Elneny, Marwan Attia, Mahmoud Hamada, Hamdi Fathy, Emam Ashour, Mohanad Lasheen, Zizo, Mohamed Salah, Koka, Mostafa Fathi, Kahraba, Mostafa Mohamed, Omar Marmoush.

Coach: Rui Vitória

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