First plays second as the battle for top spot in Group D at AFCON 2023 reaches its conclusion. We look ahead to the game with our Angola vs Burkina Faso prediction and preview.
Angola vs Burkina Faso: Pre-Match Facts
- According to the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, Burkina Faso have a 43.4% chance of victory in this game, compared to 23.8% for Angola.
- This will be the second meeting between Angola and Burkina Faso at the Africa Cup of Nations after facing off in the group stage of the 2012 edition. The game produced a 2-1 win for Angola, but the teams finished third (Angola) and fourth (Burkina Faso) in the group and were both eliminated.
- Angola and Burkina Faso last faced each other in November 2018 in qualifying for the 2019 AFCON. Angola won 2-1 thanks to a brace from Mateus.
- In their last game, Angola put an end to a nine-match winless run (D5 L4) at the Africa Cup of Nations – stretching back to January 2012 – by beating Mauritania 3-2.
- Burkina Faso are unbeaten at this edition of the Africa Cup of Nations (W1 D1) and, should they avoid defeat against Angola, it will be only the third time they have gone unbeaten across all three games in the group stage after previously doing so in 2013 and 2017.
- After victory last time out against Mauritania (3-2), Angola are looking to win multiple matches at a single edition of the AFCON for the first time ever.
- Burkina Faso have scored at least one goal in each of their last 16 AFCON matches, while they’ve netted at least two goals in two of their last three games in the competition.
- Burkina Faso have lost just two of their last 15 AFCON matches (W6 D7 L2), and could win at least two group games in a single edition of the competition for the first time since 1998 (also 2).
- Gelson Dala became the first Angola player to score a brace in an AFCON match for Angola since Manucho against Sudan in 2012.
- Angola’s Fredy has created five chances at this edition of the AFCON, more than any other Angola player, as well as taking four shots, although he is yet to score or provide an assist.
- Bertrand Traoré has two goals in this tournament and could become the first Burkina Faso player to net at least three goals at the Africa Cup of Nations since Alain Sibiri Traoré in 2013 (3); at that edition, only Emmanuel Emenike and Mubarak Wakaso scored more (both 4).
Few would have predicted Group D to look like this heading into Matchday 3 at AFCON 2023, with Angola and Burkina Faso facing off in first and second in the standings in what is essentially a play-off for top spot.
Both sides have beaten Mauritania and drawn with Algeria, leaving them tied on four points with Algeria two points back. It means the winner of this game will finish first, but a draw would open the door to the Fennec Foxes jumping above both of them with a two-goal victory over Mauritania. Angola and Burkina Faso will both have good reason to go for the win here, then.
Burkina Faso have scored at least once in each of their last 16 AFCON matches and netted two or more in two of their last three games in the competition. They have also lost only two of their last 15 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations, so there’s plenty of cause for optimism.
However, Angola will be full of confidence, too, having put three past Mauritania last time out. In doing so, they ended a nine-match winless streak (D5 L4) at the Africa Cup of Nations, a run stretching all the way back to January 2012. They dominated the stats that day and deserved their win.
These two sides will be delighted at the position they find themselves in, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with the pressure of needing to win to guarantee qualification as group winners. It may be that it gets to them, or they may both play with freedom, knowing they’ve nothing to lose. With four points apiece already, they are likely to qualify for the knockout round as one of the best third-placed teams even if they lose this game. That, of course, will mean a tougher opponent in the next round, though, so there is plenty to play for.
Angola vs Burkina Faso Head-to-Head
This will be the second ever meeting between these teams at the Africa Cup of Nations; their first, in the group stage at the 2012 tournament, ended in a 2-1 win for Angola. On that occasion, Angola finished third in the group and Burkina Faso finished fourth. Things have changed dramatically for both teams.
They have also faced each other more recently, in qualifying for the 2019 AFCON in November 2018. That game also ended in a 2-1 win for Angola.
Angola vs Burkina Faso Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Burkina Faso the favourites for this contest, giving them a 43.4% chance of taking all three points. Angola are given a 23.8% chance of causing an upset, while the draw is slightly less likely at 22.8%.
In our pre-tournament predictions, these two sides were deemed far less likely than Algeria to top Group D, but both have a huge chance to win the group now.
Below are each team’s current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer:
Angola vs Burkina Faso Squads
Angola: Neblú, Kadú, Gelson, António Signori, Eddie, Jonathan Buatu, Inácio Miguel, Tó Carneiro, Kialonda Gaspar, Kinito, Núrio Fortuna, Fredy, Bruno Paz, Manuel Keliano, Beni, Show, Estrela, Gelson Dala, Mabululu, Milson, Depú, Loide Augusto, Gilberto, Chico Banza, Jérémie Bela, Zine, Zito Luvumbo.
Coach: Pedro Gonçalves
Burkina Faso: Hervé Koffi, Hillel Konaté, Kilian Nikièma, Sébastien Tou, Edmond Tapsoba, Steeve Yago, Issoufou Dayo, Valentin Nouma, Abdoul Guiébré, Adamo Nagalo, Nasser Djiga, Issa Kaboré, Blati Touré, Bertrand Traoré, Gustavo Sangaré, Sacha Bansé, Mamady Bangré, Cédric Badolo, Ismahila Ouédraogo, Dramane Salou, Adama Guira, Djibril Ouattara, Mohamed Konaté, Abdoul Tapsoba, Aziz Ki, Hassane Bandé, Dango Ouattara.
Coach: Hubert Velud